Bad Factors Increase ICE Cotton Futures Dilemma

Recently, the main contract of ICE cotton futures has been continuously consolidated in the narrow body of 58-60 cents / pound. In the United States, India and China, the three major cotton producing countries have gradually settled the cotton planting area, and the risk of the two outbreak of the new crown epidemic has risen sharply. Under the precondition that all the world's economies have been pressing the economic "starting key" and the US stock market "up or down", the ICE disk has been stuck in many directions, the direction is unknown, and the market is in the stage of accumulation and wait-and-see.

According to CFTC statistics, as of now, the ICE bull market rate has risen to +3.12%, and there are only 16325 left in the ON-CAll contract in 2019/20, which has been greatly reduced by 7046 compared with June 1st, and the reduction has reached 30.15%. It shows that with the ICE futures contract breaking 60 cents / pound and 59 cents / pound in July, a certain amount of ON-CALL point price contracts have been concluded, including buyers from China, Vietnam and other countries in time for raw material procurement and replenishment.

According to the author's analysis, there are the following factors for the suppression of ICE and international cotton spot rebounding:

First, the first wave of epidemic in Europe and the United States has not yet been fundamentally improved, and the second wave has erupted. Although judging from experts' experience and adequate prevention and control experience, the impact on economy, life and trade will be lower than the first wave, but it is a new pressure for the global textile industry chain and cotton consumption that have just resumed production.

The two is the short term multi fund and the lack of theme for the 2020 cotton planting area and the main production area. According to the USDA report, as of June 14th, the US cotton sowing schedule was 89%, an increase of 4 percentage points over the same period last year, and the current bud remained unchanged from previous years, and the seedlings remained stable. Due to the arrival of the southwest monsoon as scheduled, the rainfall in 6-9 months was normal, and the government continued to raise MSP, and the cotton planting area in India was very optimistic in 2020.

Three, in addition to China's signing of "cotton to cotton", other Southeast Asian, Turkey and other textile giants cancel contracts and slow down procurement. With the outbreak of the two outbreak, demand recovered or stopped abruptly.

Four, the economic situation has been slump under the outbreak of the epidemic. Layoffs, unemployment and income have declined. According to statistics, in March, EU clothing imports decreased by 21.4% in Euro terms, and 23% in US dollars. In April, retail consumption of apparel in the United States dropped by 48% over the same period last year, all of which exceeded expectations.