Supply And Demand Fundamentals Are Bad And PTA Prices Will Weaken.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic PTA spot market in June 22nd was 3685 yuan / ton, down 0.29% from the previous day, down 38.30% from the same period last year. PTA main futures (2009) also down, closing to the main futures closed at 3710, compared with the previous trading day fell 16, or 0.43%.

The raw material market is favorable to the PTA market mentality. In June 19th, the crude oil market shock rose, and the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures contract was quoted at 39.75 US dollars / barrel, up 0.91 US dollars from the previous trading day, and the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract was 42.19 dollars, or 0.68 yuan. With the boost of PX, the closing price in Asia is 557 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 577 US dollars / ton CFR China, up 22 US dollars / ton compared with the previous day.

But at present, PTA social stock is approaching 4 million tons, still at a high level. On the device side, with the Hon Bang Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand ton plant started heating up on the 18 day restart, the Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical 400 thousand ton plant was re fed on the 21 th, and at the end of the month, the new plant of Hengli 2 million 500 thousand tons is facing the expected production, and the supply of PTA market will increase gradually, which is not conducive to inventory digestion. In addition, PTA processing fee is still close to 700 yuan / ton, manufacturers are still in a good profit state, do not exclude the possibility of factory maintenance plan postponed.

Production and marketing of downstream polyester market is flat. The current operating rate is around 85%. In June 20th, Sheng Hong 250 thousand tons of polyester were put into production and exported to Hainan, 500 thousand tons of qualified products were discharged, and the load of the new plant was near 5, and the 120 thousand ton short fiber plan of Anhui Jinzhai new fiber was restarted. With the discharge and restart, the starting rate will be improved. However, the textile market of the terminal textile industry has gradually deepened in the off-season. It is even more difficult at the time of the special year's low season. Most of the weaving enterprises have begun to sharply reduce the starting rate. The comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped slightly to below 63%. In terms of price, the market of polyester filament market showed a slight decline, of which 22 polyester FDY fell 1.69% on the day, the most obvious. The mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were quoted in the price of polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6150-6450 yuan / ton.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that crude oil is still in the production cycle, and the PX is strong in the near future. It is supported by cost drivers for PTA. But in the near future, the device is restarted and the new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. At the same time, at the same time, the consumption level of the terminal textile industry is decreasing, and domestic sales demand is reduced. There is a breakthrough in the export market. There is a lack of further improvement power in the follow-up. It is expected that the price of PTA will weaken and the possibility of adjustment will be greater.