Since The Two Quarter, The Cashmere Industry Is Still In A Difficult Position.

In the first quarter, the export of cashmere industry, domestic consumption and compression resistance showed certain advantages in the field of wool spinning. However, with the spread of the global epidemic, domestic consumption fell into the off-season. The overall situation of the cashmere industry in the two quarter showed a further downward trend compared with the first quarter.

1. The purchase market of cashmere has warmed up and prices have risen slightly.

According to the collection and summary of China Mao Association, since May, the low price callback of cashmere has increased slightly compared with the low level in April, including the need for enterprises to resume production, and because the market anticipation of the existing price is already at the bottom of the valley, and the expectation of future price rises.

Two, the overall export situation is declining.

Cashmere products share a larger share of overseas products. According to customs statistics, the total export volume of cashmere products in 1~4 months was 250 million US dollars, down 25.2% from the same period last year, still slightly better than the decline in the export of wool and textile raw materials and products. However, compared with the first quarter, the year-on-year decline was further accelerated. From month to month, monthly export volume of cashmere products is still at a low level, and export market is greatly hindered.

Figure 1, 2020 1~4 month cashmere products export total monthly comparison

Source: China Customs

The two main products, cashmere yarn and cashmere sweater, 1~4 total export volume decreased by 14% and 33% compared with the same period last year. It can be said that the export situation of cashmere products is even more difficult after entering the two quarter.

The main export markets of cashmere products showed a significant decline. The export volume of the US and Japanese markets, which were mainly exported by the final products, dropped by more than 40%. The export volume of the ASEAN products exported by the intermediate products decreased by more than 20%, while the export volume of the EU's main exports of cashmere products dropped by 19%. The export situation of all major export destinations deteriorated compared with the first quarter.

Figure 2 and export situation of cashmere products in main export areas in 1~4 2020

Source: China Customs

Because of the changes in the current international economic and epidemic situation, the epidemic situation in Europe tends to be stable. In the first half of the year, the China Mao Association judged that the basic situation remained unchanged, and that the second half of the year should be restored.

Three, the consumer market has far-reaching implications.

From the consumption situation of the domestic market in 1~5 month, as of May, the year-on-year decline in the total retail sales of domestic consumer goods has narrowed to 2.8%, of which the decline in physical stores and department stores has also narrowed, but the decline is still above two digits. Retail sales of physical goods have increased rapidly, increasing by 11% over the same period last year. While domestic consumption is steadily recovering, the consumption of our textile and clothing is also recovering. However, due to the earlier impact, the level of recovery is even slower, the retail sales of textile and clothing fell 23.5% in the 1~5 month, and the retail sales of online wear fell by 6.8% over the same period last year, which is obviously worse than the level of domestic retail consumption. In which, wool textile products are affected by seasonal factors, and the situation is even more optimistic. Many wool textile enterprises are still supporting and waiting for a turn for the time. Cashmere products, as high-end consumer products, need to focus more on the story of industry and products before raising the market's recognition rate for cashmere products, and win the market from natural, green, sustainable and quality.