In June, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index And Non Manufacturing Business Activity Index Increased Steadily.

Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the National Bureau of statistics service industry, June 2020 interpretation of China Purchasing Managers Index

In June 30, 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Center and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Investigation Center, made an interpretation.

At present, all regions and departments in line with the deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, do a good job of "six stability" and implement the "six guarantees" task, and strive to overcome the adverse effects brought by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and the overall recovery of China's economic operation continues to improve. In June 2020, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index, the non manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.9%, 54.4% and 54.2%, respectively, higher than last month.

1. The purchasing managers index of manufacturing industry picked up slightly.

In June, manufacturing industry PMI was 50.9%, higher than last month's 0.3 percentage points. In the 21 industries surveyed, 14 industries PMI was higher than the critical point, an increase of 5 from the previous month, and the manufacturing industry steadily recovered and the fundamentals continued to improve. Key features of this month:

First, supply and demand continue to warm up. Production index and new order index were 53.9% and 51.4% respectively, up 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points from last month, of which the new orders index has been rising for two consecutive months. Judging from the industry situation, the new order index and production index of manufacturing, non-ferrous metals, general equipment, electrical machinery and equipment are obviously higher than that of last month, and the market demand has been improved, and the production power of enterprises has been enhanced.

Two, the price index has risen. The main raw material purchase price index and ex factory price index were 56.8% and 52.4% respectively, up 5.2 and 3.7 percentage points from last month, all of which are high in the year. Judging from the industry situation, oil processing, steel, nonferrous metals and other upstream industries two price indices are higher than last month, rose to more than 60% high.

Three, the import and export index has improved. As the world's major economies resumed the economy, the import and export index of China's manufacturing industry rebounded lower this month, with the new export orders index of 42.6%, up 7.3 percentage points from last month. The 7 manufacturing industries, such as paper printing, petroleum processing, general equipment, electrical and mechanical equipment, increased by 10 percentage points, and the import index was 47%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month. Processing, chemical raw materials, chemical fiber and rubber plastics, automobile and other 6 manufacturing industries are higher than the critical point.

Four, business confidence is basically stable. Although the production and operation activity expectation index has dropped slightly, it still achieves 57.5%, indicating that the manufacturing enterprises are more optimistic about the recent market recovery. Judging from the industry situation, the production and operation activities of petroleum processing, automobile, special equipment, electrical machinery and equipment and other manufacturing activities expect two consecutive months higher than 60%.

Although the PMI index has rebounded this month and the manufacturing sector has steadily recovered, it is also necessary to see that uncertainties remain. First, the import and export index has improved for two consecutive months, but it is still below the critical point. The current overseas epidemic situation has not yet been effectively controlled, and the external market is still variable. Two, the pressure of recovery is still relatively large in some industries. PMI in textile, textile and clothing, wood processing and other manufacturing industries is still below the critical point. The three is that small enterprises have difficulty in production and operation, PMI is 48.9%, 1.9 percentage points lower than last month, and small enterprises that reflect insufficient orders are higher than large and medium-sized enterprises.

Two, non manufacturing business activity index continued to rise trend

In June, the index of non manufacturing business activity was 54.4%, up 0.8 percentage points from last month, rising for four consecutive months.

The service sector continued to improve. The business activity index of service industry was 53.4%, higher than that of last month's 1.1 percentage points. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 15 business activities index was higher than the critical point, and most of the industry's production and operation continued to recover. Among them, transportation and warehousing and postal services, information transmission software and information technology services, the financial industry is above 59% and business volume has increased. Recently, the recovery of manufacturing industry has been further consolidated, leading to an increase in the volume of related service industries. The business activity index of producer services this month was 57.3%, up 4.5 percentage points from the previous month. With the quickening recovery of production and living order, market confidence has been strengthened, demand for service industry has continued to release, the new order index is 52.3%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from last month. At the same time, the recovery of some service sectors is still difficult. The index of business activities of cultural sports entertainment and residential services is still below the critical point.

The construction industry continues to grow. The construction business activity index was 59.8%, although it dropped 1 percentage points from last month, but it was higher than 59% in three consecutive months. The construction industry increased steadily. From the market expectation, the business activity expectation index is 67.8%, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than that of last month.

Three. The composite PMI output index is higher than last month.

In June, the composite PMI output index was 54.2%, 0.8 percentage points higher than that of last month, and the production and operation of enterprises continued to improve. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constituted the composite PMI output index, were 53.9% and 54.4%, respectively, rising from last month.