Review Of The Chemical Fiber Industry Chain In June 2020 And Outlook For July

The first part is brief introduction.

In June, the upstream and downstream products of polyester industry chain showed a broad concussion trend. The fluctuation of international crude oil plays a leading role in the industry chain market. At the beginning of the month, the OPEC+ production reduction agreement was extended, the international crude oil rebounded steadily, and the industrial chain market gradually rose to a high point in the month, but the market supply and demand fundamentals remained weak. In the middle and later ten days, as the international crude oil tended to be collated, the market continued to lack the continuous good impetus, and the industrial chain market was maintained in an interval. At the end of the month, the industry chain market weakened gradually under the pressure of crude oil decline.

Table 1 list of products in chemical fiber industry in June

　　 Source: LIAN

As shown in Table 1, in terms of the link ratio, PX (CFR Taiwan) increased by 9.84% in June, 5.79% in PTA, 1.34% in MEG, 3.66% in polyester chip, 2.18% in polyester bottle, 2.18% in polyester, and 0.77% in polyester.

The second part is about the fluctuation and trend of chemical fiber industry chain in June.

　　 Source: LIAN

The Jin Lian chemical fiber industry chain has monitored the monthly average price of 7 chemical fiber products and raw materials. As shown in Figure 1, the monthly average price of chemical fiber products has risen in June, and the monthly increase has been maintained at 1-10%. The biggest increase was PX, up 9.84%, or the smallest polyester filament increased by 0.77%.

　　 Source: LIAN

In June, according to the statistics of the products in the chemical fiber industry chain, as shown in Figure 2, the market rebound of chemical fiber industry chain was the main factor in the month, and the overall decline was a significant decline compared with the same period last year. From the year-on-year data, we can see that the overall decline was between 18-37%, the largest decline was PTA, or 37.27%, while the decrease was the lowest, ethylene glycol dropped by 17.77%.

PX

In June, the Asian PX market was on the high side. As of the end of the month, Asian PX estimated 531 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 551 US dollars / ton CFR Taiwan / China, up 69 US dollars / ton at the end of last month. At the beginning of the month, international crude oil continued to rise, and the overall environment was getting warmer. Raw naphtha steadily increased and the cost was moving. The PX market was mainly related to the increase. In addition, the loss of the enterprises increased, the intention of merchants to give up profits was not strong, the downstream polyester and PTA started to maintain a high level, PX demand was good, and the market slowly pushed up. However, due to the full supply of PX in Asia and the slow inventory of PX, the industry's mentality was divided, especially the aggravation of foreign epidemic situation, which inhibited market sentiment, and the market was slightly weaker. Crude oil remained strong in the late part of the year, and some PX production enterprises were likely to lose weight. The 600 thousand ton / year PX installation of Zhenhai Refining and chemical company started to stop and repair in June 20th, while the downstream part of PTA repair assembly. Reboot, PTA start up rate, raw material PX procurement enthusiasm is higher, at the end of the month, Hengli No. 5 PTA new device is about to go into operation, businesses expect future demand will continue to rise, the offer remains firm, but affected by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the domestic market closed, the industry was insipid, but during the holidays crude oil has dropped significantly, suppress the PX market sentiment, the market showed a small pullback. At the end of the month, Sinopec announced that the PX settlement price in June was 4450 yuan / ton, up 340 yuan / ton from last month's settlement. In June, the average price of CFR Taiwan / China was 533.29 US dollars / ton, a 9.84% higher than the annulus rate, 35.75% lower than the same period last year, the lowest price appeared in June 1st of 474 US dollars / ton, and the highest price appeared in June 24th of 580 US dollars / ton.

PTA

The PTA spot market in June was narrow and volatile, and the overall turnover was light. At the beginning of the month, the price of crude oil was at a high level and the cost side was stable for the PTA market. The delayed maintenance plan of some PTA plants is still high, and the supply performance is still sufficient, and the high PTA storage trend still restricts market prices. Downstream polyester production and marketing downturn, weaving rate of decline, the PTA market fell slightly. On the 11 day, the East China main port's spot offer was executed by 2009 contracts minus 85-90 yuan / ton, and the delivery was reduced by 95 yuan / ton, and the discussion was around 3590-3610 yuan / ton. In the middle of the year, crude oil prices rebounded and the cost side drove the PTA market strong. However, Fuhai PTA plant has resumed normal operation. The HP 2 million 200 thousand ton is expected to be restarted and the rate of operation is raised. The expected increase in supply and the stature of stock from height will suppress the price formation, and the market will not have enough action. Although the downstream polyester operating rate has returned to 88% above average, terminal orders are still insufficient, and polyester production and sales are weak. On the 18 day, the East China main port's spot offer was executed by 2009 contracts minus 80-85 yuan / ton, and the delivery was reduced by 85-90 yuan / ton, and the discussion was around 3600-3630 yuan / ton. In late July, crude oil prices declined and the cost side drove the PTA market to weaken. The 2 million 200 thousand tons of Hon Bang equipment was discharged, the 400 thousand tons of Shanghai petrochemical plant and the 350 thousand ton plant of Yangzi Petrochemical were restarted, the operating rate was raised, the supply of PTA increased, and the high inventory prices continued to suppress market prices. Downstream polyester operating rate remained high, but polyester production and marketing is weak, terminal demand is poor, the traditional off-season lack of substantive benefits to boost. On the 29 day, the East China main port's spot offer was executed by 2009 contracts minus 80-85 yuan / ton, and the delivery was reduced by 90-95 yuan / ton, and the discussion was around 3540-3580 yuan / ton. In June, the average price of PTA market in East China was 3602 yuan / ton, up 5.79%, up 37.27% compared with the same period last year, the highest price appeared at 3680 yuan / ton on 8 days, and the lowest price appeared in 3540 yuan / ton on 29 days.

MEG

The ethylene glycol market was wide in June. During the month, the maintenance of ethylene glycol was overhauled and the traditional off-season was superimposed. The pressure of ethylene glycol inventory was difficult to alleviate, and the fundamentals still maintained a relaxed supply pattern. In the absence of substantial improvement in fundamentals, the market trend of ethylene glycol in the month is closely related to the cost side crude oil trend. At the beginning of the month, the OPEC+ crude oil production reduction agreement was extended, and the cost side was good to drive the ethylene glycol market to a high point in the month. In the middle of the year, the adjustment of warehousing charges led to a strong market sentiment, and the market prices continued to rise. At the end of the month, with the drop in international crude oil prices, the glycol market is dropping again. Close to 29 days at 3475-3485 yuan / ton to discuss.

PET bottle flakes

In June, the domestic bottle grade PET market was advanced and suppressed. In early days, the domestic bottle grade PET market remained strong. With the rise of international crude oil prices, the PTA market of polyester raw materials has increased and cost has been boosted. Manufacturers' offer has steadily increased, and the market's focus has risen to 5650-5750 yuan / ton. In the month, bottle manufacturers are in a tight spot. Most manufacturers began to pick up orders in the 3-4 quarter, and manufacturers had a higher price intent to support market prices. In the middle of the beginning, with the decline of international crude oil, the PTA market of polyester raw materials was weakened. The cost of support for the raw materials market was gradually reduced. By the end of the month, the price of the East China market had dropped to 5450-5600 yuan / ton. Although the downstream demand has gradually entered the peak season, there is ample stock in the early stage of the downstream, low enthusiasm for continued stock preparation, and prudent wait and see. As of June 30th, the average price of the bottle grade PET market in East China in June was 5624 yuan / ton, up 2.18% compared to the same period, down 22.27% from the same period, the highest price in June 8th was 5750 yuan / ton, the lowest price appeared in the June 29th of 5450 yuan / ton.

PET chip

In June, the market of polyester chip was sorted and sorted out, and the trend of the market was generally suppressed. In early days, influenced by the rise of international crude oil, the PTA market of polyester raw materials increased, the cost pushing effect was enhanced, the PET chip factory quoted price increased by 50-200 yuan / ton, the market transaction gravity center was strong, but the downstream pursuit mood was not enough, wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and many raw materials needed to purchase raw materials in the downstream. In the middle of the beginning, with the decline of international crude oil, the raw material PTA market weakened, the cost pushing effect weakened, the downstream was dominated by pre digestion stock preparation, the production and marketing of polyester chip market remained slack, and downstream weaving was in the traditional consumption off-season market, the number of new orders in downstream and terminal weaving enterprises decreased significantly, the order continuity was not good, and the market demand was not optimistic. The focus of the slicing market is gradually dropping. At the end of the month, the general intention of the lower reaches of the Dragon Boat Festival will be lower, and the upstream cost will not support enough after the holiday. As of June 30th, the average price of the polyester chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 4819 yuan / ton this month, up 3.66%, up 29.73% from the same period last year, the highest price in June 8th was 4950 yuan / ton, and the lowest price appeared at 4675 yuan / ton on the 30 day.

Polyester staple fiber

In June, the polyester staple market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the market of polyester staple fiber showed a trend of adjustment. It was slightly warm. But with the recovery of crude oil, there was a concentrated replenishment in the lower reaches. The production and sales of the products were generally around 200%, and the manufacturers quoted generally 100-200 yuan / ton floating up, and the center of price also rose, and the stocks returned again. The middle of the month was dragged down by crude oil, the raw material PTA was running poorly, the cost support was insufficient, and the downstream sentiment of polyester staple fiber continued to be depressed. From the end of the month to the end of the month, the market of polyester staple fiber showed a trend of adjustment. Although the quotations of polyester and short staple manufacturers were basically maintained, however, due to the poor production and marketing, the discount was enlarged and the overall stalemate trend was basically maintained. As the downstream mills store false expectations, there is only partial improvement in production and sales before the Dragon Boat Festival. In order to alleviate the pressure of shipment, individual polyester and short factories choose to make short time parking during Dragon Boat Festival. As of 29 days, the average price of PET staple market in East China in June was 5784 yuan / ton, up 0.77%, up 22.94% compared with the same period last year. The highest price appeared in June 9th of 6000 yuan / ton, and the lowest price appeared in 5600 yuan / ton on 29 days. Sinopec June 1.4D*38mm direct spinning polyester staple fiber settlement price of 6050 yuan / ton, up 25 yuan / ton from last month. Jiangsu San Fang Lane chemical fiber polyester staple price 1.4D half light polyester short June settlement price reported to 5800 yuan / ton.

Polyester filament

The polyester filament Market in June showed a trend of first rising and then falling. At the beginning of the month, affected by the extension of the production plan, the core of the crude oil was raised and the polyester raw material market was boosted to drive the price of polyester filament to go up. In the middle of the month, raw materials PTA and glycol interval shock, cost support general, polyester filament factory multidimensional stable offer, but downstream textile factory procurement enthusiasm is not high, just maintain the need for stock, polyester filament market turnover atmosphere is mediocre. Near the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the polyester filament factory has increased the preferential treatment. However, there are only 23 days POY production and sales volume, POY production and sales can reach 100-150%, FDY, DTY production and marketing is still normal. During the holiday, the polyester filament market continued to go down, but the downstream weaving factories were mainly pre digestion raw materials inventory, cautious in purchasing mentality, and weak in production and marketing, and the stock of polyester filament increased. Up to now, the average price of East China PET filament POY market is 5605 yuan / ton, up 4.63%, up 27.59% compared with the same period, the highest price appeared in June 9th 5750 yuan / ton, the lowest price appeared at 5400 yuan / ton on 30 days.

The third part forecasts and prospects.

Jin Lian Chuang predicts that the polyester industry chain market in July will show an interval shock pattern. Because of the severe epidemics abroad, there is still little room for crude oil to go up. The market for polyester feedstock PTA and ethylene glycol will be broadly adjusted next month. The demand for terminal weaving is still weak, and in the traditional off-season, market production and sales are sluggish, and weak demand has put pressure on the market. Therefore, the overall trend or continuation trend of polyester products market in July. The following are the outlook for each product's future:

PX: Jin Lian Chuang expects that the PX market will be strong in July. Due to the continuous loss of PX enterprises, the operating rate of PX in Japan and South Korea is relatively low. In addition, if the Hengli PTA new plant is put into operation as planned, the demand for PX is expected to increase. However, the same set of PX devices is planned to be put into operation. However, it is still unknown whether the smooth operation of the company will be put into operation in July. Considering that the epidemic situation is still grim abroad, the crude oil will not continue to go up much. Tropism is not strong.

PTA: Jin Lian creates the PTA market in July or maintains its shock pattern. PTA part of the device introduced maintenance plan, but the new device put into operation, the overall supply side change little, but high storage is still suppressed to the market; and downstream demand performance is weak, although polyester operating rate maintained near the high level of 88%, but the terminal weaving needs follow up generally, textile orders are scarce. The market lacks solid support, and PTA prices will remain volatile in the short term. Still need to pay attention to PTA maintenance and downstream recovery status.

MEG:7 month glycol market will continue to wide shocks. The international crude oil recovery is weak enough to maintain high volatility, supporting the cost of ethylene glycol. In addition, naphtha and ethylene prices are strong. Under the full line of profits and losses, ethylene glycol has limited space. However, the supply side of ethylene glycol is loose as domestic maintenance devices are restarted. After the demand side entered the traditional off-season, the downstream polyester production and marketing were slack, the raw materials and product inventory of terminal weaving enterprises were at a high level, and the ability to continue stocking was limited. At present, ethylene glycol supply and demand pattern is difficult to achieve a substantial removal, and the basic performance is deadlocked. It is expected that the follow-up will continue to be low and wide. Further attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil and the impact of new installations on ethylene glycol.

Polyester PET: Jin Lian Chuang expects July polyester PET market or shock finishing. Supply side, polyester PET plant operating rate or maintain high, and by the end of June, the overall inventory of industry is higher, it is expected that the supply pressure is not great. Demand side, the July fiber grade PET downstream is in the traditional consumption off-season market, but the bottle grade PET downstream is in the traditional peak season of consumption, market consolidation needs or is acceptable. On the whole, the overall volatility of polyester PET market in July is narrower or narrower. We should pay close attention to the trend of international crude oil and the upstream raw material market trend.

Polyester fiber: Jin Lian Chuang predicts that the polyester fiber market will be weak in July. Due to the lack of solid support for the polyester market, the PTA price will remain stable next month and the cost side will support the general trend. The polyester fiber plant maintains high load starts, and the pressure of supply continues to increase as new devices are put into operation one after another. In addition, the international epidemic has repeatedly dragged up the confidence of the polyester market. However, under the traditional off-season, the downstream terminal's own orders are weak, the pressure of enterprise funds and inventory is increasing gradually, and the operating rate is difficult to upgrade, resulting in insufficient demand for polyester fiber, and only the main raw materials for purchasing raw materials are maintained. Affected by this, the polyester fiber market in July will be dominated by weak stability.