Second Tier Hot City Property Market Survey Report: Wuhan Property Market Half A Year Test: Transaction Cut, Inventory Control Housing Prices Difficult To Rise

After the most violent outbreak, Wuhan's "heroic city" is slowly returning everything to the right track.

The real estate market is also gradually recovering. In the two quarter, people went out of their homes, the sales offices of developers were reopened, new customers were found, and the government relaxed the control of funds. In the 4-6 month, the property market transactions rose month by month, and the heat gradually increased.

Developers are obviously more confident than buyers. Many of them are optimistic about the future of Wuhan and think that it is a "bottom up" opportunity and eagerly active in the land market. In the first half of this year, land sales in Wuhan amounted to 68 billion 800 million yuan, ranking the top ten in the country.

But the impact of the epidemic is still enormous for Wuhan. According to the data of the middle finger hospital, in the first half of this year, the new housing market in Wuhan was cut off by half of last year, which only sold half of last year, which led to a 12 month increase in the disintegration cycle. Meanwhile, according to shell data, the number of second-hand housing listing increased by 5 times, and the turnover was sluggish.

Obviously, the confidence of the city's real estate market has not yet been fully restored, which is closely related to the epidemic, industry and population. The feast of the Wuhan property market has not yet arrived. Looking ahead to this year or even next year, the Wuhan property market will still have a long climb.

Slow recovery in the two quarter

In the first half of the year, the property market in Wuhan hit the worst in ten years. In the first quarter, the outbreak of the property market was completely frozen, and the turnover was even zero in February.

At the March 17th performance conference, Zhu Jiusheng, President of Vanke, said that the epidemic resulted in less than 51 billion subscriptions of Vanke in 2-3 months, and three cities in Hubei did not have new sales since January 23rd, while sales in Hubei accounted for 1.3% of the total group.

Not only Vanke, as a strategic city for developers, there are 70% hundred strong housing companies in the layout of the Hubei region, while Wuhan as the provincial capital and the only core, gathered the major housing enterprises in Hubei 77% of the value of the earth's stock. In the past three years, according to the sales situation of enterprises in the region, Kerri estimated that if the epidemic caused the market to stagnate for 2 months, the first ten housing companies would lose more than 30 billion of their sales.

The turnaround occurred in Wuhan in April 8th, and the property market began to recover slowly.

Statistics from the National Bureau of statistics and the middle finger hospital show that in 4-6 months, Wuhan's new houses were 6627, 11977, 13316 sets respectively. In June and June, the number of new houses exceeded 10000, respectively, rising by 80.73% and 11.18% respectively.

As the turnover in 5 and June rose, the prices of new houses also picked up slightly, but according to the National Bureau of statistics, the price of new houses in Wuhan increased by 0.4% in April compared with that in April, compared with 7.4% in 2019 and May in May.

This is inseparable from the "record price increase" stimulus. Since June, the price of residential decoration in Wuhan has been included in the total record price. The index data show that in April 8th, 14 days in April 8th, in Wuhan, 108 of the projects that had obtained the pre-sale certificate, the price rose accounted for about 37%, and the price of housing increased by 3%-14%, and only 1 items were recorded down in price.

Since March 23rd, policies have also helped to revive the property market. Wuhan has made appropriate relaxation in the pre-sale, improving the efficiency of the pre-sale supervision funds, and effectively alleviating the financial pressure brought by the project development.

However, the overall turnover in the first half of the year is still close to being cut. China Index Research Institute data show that in the first half of 2020, 43 thousand and 600 new houses in Wuhan were traded, down 48.7% from the same period last year (85129 sets). The area of the transaction was 4 million 987 thousand and 400 square meters, which was 47.45% lower than that of the same period last year (9 million 490 thousand and 200 square meters).

In the resuscitation market, some housing companies seize the opportunity window and promote sales. In the first half of Wuhan's turnover in the top ten, Hengda occupied two seats by the times new city and the technology tourism city. The new town was ranked 1404 by the number of transactions, and became the lucky winner in the first half of the year.

Compared with the new housing market, the second-hand housing market has recovered more slowly. According to Wuhan housing authority data, in May the city's second-hand housing transactions only 4843 sets, the market supply of serious excess. In the past month, 92% of second-hand housing prices have been lowered.

Housing enterprises are heavily loaded up in Wuhan

Compared with the exploratory sales market, the Wuhan auction market is more eye-catching. Large scale real estate businesses have expressed their optimism about the city.

In March 31st, the Wuhan land market was reopened for two months. At that time, the property market was generally depressed, and developers were still relatively conservative. Although the 10 plots were successfully sold, 9 were sold at the bottom price. However, Longhu, Jinmao and other leading housing enterprises launched the signal to the outside world to see more Wuhan.

In April 7th, Wuhan had not yet been fully released. Sun Hongbin, chairman of China's board of directors, was sitting on the high-speed rail line bound for Wuhan. It became the first developer to go to Wuhan after the outbreak. Wuhan took part in the second day's restart of the "cloud contract".

Within a few days, Sun Hongbin finalized three projects. In the 4-6 months of the soil patten, Rong Chong also appeared frequently, and hit more than 1 billion yuan.

In June 30th, Wuhan earth clap reached its climax, and ended in high tension in the first half of the year. On that day, 9 land was sold and 24 billion 382 million yuan was collected. Among them, CNOOC tossed 14 billion 400 million to win the two phase of the Gui Yuan, which amazed the market.

In addition, after 168 rounds of fierce fighting with 24 housing companies, Nanshan real estate took 962 million yuan for one of its plots, 13514.75 yuan per square meter of floor space, and the premium rate was 93.13%.

In addition to Chong Chong and Zhonghai, in the first half of this year, a number of nationwide housing enterprises such as Longhu, Huaxia happiness, Jinmao, overseas Chinese town and Dexin were also making a bet on Wuhan. Local strength Housing enterprises also show positive, Wuhan real estate group, beautiful home and hundred step ting and so on have been harvested.

In the 1-6 month of 2020, the middle finger Research Institute issued the national land grant TOP20, Wuhan ranked sixth at 68 billion 800 million yuan, though it was not as good as last year, but it is pressing for many popular cities in Foshan, Dongguan and Shenzhen.

A developer in Southern China said that compared with other similar cities, Wuhan's land price is not very high, ranking the middle reaches of the whole country. If we are optimistic about Wuhan in the long run, it is a good opportunity to take the post disaster recovery period.

Song Ding, the tourism and real estate research center of China comprehensive research institute, believes that Wuhan is the largest city affected by the epidemic. But after the outbreak, the central government has given Wuhan a lot of policy and financial support. At present, the industry is full of expectations for Wuhan's future property market. Therefore, many housing enterprises in Wuhan market optimistic premise, will actively take photos to grab the ground.

Yan Yuejin, director of Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute, pointed out that Wuhan has been hit hard by the epidemic and the financial pressure is greater. The government will definitely accelerate the pace of pushing the land. Developers are also aware of this logic and increase their enthusiasm.

To be fully restored

Wuhan, as a national central city, has important strategic significance. Over the past few years, real estate development in Wuhan has been swift and violent. From 2014 to 2019, regardless of the volume of commercial housing, or the supply of land and transaction, they all rank in the forefront of the second tier cities in the country.

Wuhan's attraction to housing companies has also increased year by year. As of 2019, the top 50 Housing enterprises in the country reached 42 in Wuhan and Wuhan as a heavily loaded area.

However, before the outbreak, the Wuhan property market in 2019 was already showing signs of weakness. At the end of 2019, Wu Yang, general manager of Yi Ju Ke Rui, Wuhan, said in a speech that he had smelled the "smell of winter" in the Wuhan property market.

The core indicator is the decline in the volume of new premises and the increase in inventory. In the first half of 2019, the rate of conversion was 74%, the rate of 60% in the second half of the year, and the abrupt decline. Turnover was difficult, and the contract ratio reached 12. That is to say, 12 people came to see the project, and only 1 people traded.

At the same time, the inventory cycle reached 7.17 months, an increase of 56.2% over the same period last year.

Unexpectedly, at the beginning of 2020, the black swan was attacked and brought a greater blow to Wuhan. Middle finger data show that as of the end of June, Wuhan's new house inventory reached 162 thousand sets, and the stock cycle has exceeded 12 months.

Second hand housing is also under pressure. Shell platform secondary housing data show that Wuhan has more than 75 thousand listed listings. In early January, the number of second-hand housing in Wuhan, which had not yet been affected by the epidemic, was only 12 thousand and 300 units, 5 times more.

The digestion of second-hand houses is more difficult than new ones. For residential property, in order to control the epidemic, the only feasible way is to refuse all strange faces to enter. So for a long time, the property will take the intermediary and second-hand housing as a potential threat, which will greatly affect the second-hand housing market transactions.

Second hand housing can not be realizable, which will in turn affect the pricing and confidence of the new housing market, and form a vicious circle.

Ding Zuyu, President of Yi Ju China, believes that as the central area of the epidemic, Wuhan needs more time to recover, and the total number of land reserves in the region is higher, and the housing enterprises with larger proportion of earth reserves in the past year will face greater pressure.

Under such circumstances, although the government has relaxed the record price of new houses, price promotions for housing companies are inevitable, and there is little room for room prices to rise. Some investors in the Wuhan property market believe that this year's market is definitely a buyer's market. Housing prices should not be ready for one or two years.

A local developer in Wuhan believes that in the second half of the year, as long as the big situation is not deadlocked, the fundamentals of Wuhan's property market will be stable, but it will have to face difficult reconstruction to restore demand.

The ultimate recovery of Wuhan's property market is the absorption of the city's population. Last year, the net inflow of Wuhan's population was only 130 thousand, which has lagged far behind Hangzhou and Nanjing. In all the trillion GDP cities in China, the number of population absorbed by Wuhan is not large.

In the post epidemic era, Wuhan urgently needs to restore the confidence of the floating population to the city. This remains to be seen.

In the long run, people from all walks of life have confidence in Wuhan. Sun Hongbin, chairman of China's board of directors of Chong Chong, Wuhan, said that the impact of the epidemic is short-lived. Wuhan's advantages in transportation, business costs, industrial opportunities and education will continue to attract a large number of industries and population, and will rapidly develop into a super large city with GDP exceeding 2 trillion and a population of over 20 million.

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