Dormant Months, The Stock Market Greet Crazy Moments! However, Raw Materials And Grey Fabrics Are Still "Money". No Comparison, No Harm...

On the 6 day, the stock index continued to be strong. It broke even 3200 points and 3300 points in the market, closing a new high since February 2018, and successfully achieving "five plus Yang". At the close, the Shanghai index rose 5.71% points to 3332.88 points, the biggest one-day gain in 5 years; the Shenzhen index rose 4.09% points to 12941.72 points; the gem index rose 2.72% points to 2529.49 points and returned to 2500 points. Brokerage stocks and bank shares have been raised.

The total turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities reached 15661 billion, breaking through trillions in 3 consecutive days. Stock market sentiment is hot. As a result of the sharp expansion of the volume of the two cities, some brokerages even have APP downtime.

　　 ? ? ? In sharp contrast to the sharp rise in the stock market, the volume and price of raw materials and grey fabrics in the textile market are falling. Textile people can not help "Tucao": no comparison, no harm, it is really too difficult!

raw material

Price "floor price", production and marketing once again fall into 4 circles.

Since last year, the price of polyester filament has been on a downward track, and occasionally the good news has not been sustained. Without the substantial support of the terminal, the price of polyester can hardly be improved. In particular, it has entered the traditional textile market in the off-season, and the price of polyester has started to fall or fall.

Up to now, the price of polyester filament products has dropped seriously. The price of FDY products is near 5500 yuan / ton. The price of POY products is near 5100 yuan / ton, and the price of DTY products is 6700 yuan / ton. Compared with the peak time of polyester filament in 2018, the drop is simply a sigh.

　　 The price has dropped, but it still can not sell. Recently, the production and sale of polyester filament has been maintained at 4 percent. The wait-and-see mentality of the weaving manufacturers is obvious, and the preferential sales promotion methods of the manufacturers are also invalid, and there is no breakthrough in production and marketing. As a result, polyester manufacturers are in a state of difficulty in production and marketing and continue to accumulate inventories. At present, the average stock of polyester plant has risen to near 26-36 days, and it shows an upward trend.

To a large extent, the price of polyester has been guided by the news. Today, crude oil prices have stood at the $40 mark, but it is still difficult to infuse the polyester market with strong bookings. Besides the weakening demand for downstream weaving, the most important reason is the lack of the support of upstream PTA and ethylene glycol. The price of PTA and ethylene glycol is already low, while the latter is still facing the expectation of production, the overcapacity structure is aggravated, and the probability of price decline is too large. For the polyester market, it also aggravates uncertainty.

Grey

Prices have fallen short of "underpants", and inventories have been refreshed.

It's worse than this. This year's market is probably no match for weaving enterprises.

Last year, the two sides attacked by overcapacity and Sino US trade frictions, weaving enterprises' orders were sluggish, coupled with tight capital chain and terminal demand, many enterprises went bankrupt. In 2019, it was branded as "the worst year of employment" by textile workers, but it was also said that it might be the best year in the next three years. So, just this year, the black swan hit the whole global industrial chain, and the textile enterprises could not be left alone. In February, almost the entire textile market was at a halt. In March, the market began to move, but it was only a few years ago. There were only a few new bills, especially foreign trade orders.

In the post epidemic era, the economy began to recover slowly, but there was no obvious signs of recovery in the textile market, especially in foreign trade.

According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in May 2020, the export volume of textiles and clothing was 29 billion 554 million US dollars, an increase of 38.36%, of which clothing (including clothing and accessories) exports amounted to US $8 billion 905 million 700 thousand, down 26.93% from the same period last year. In 2020 1-5, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 97 billion 965 million US dollars, down 0.80% from the same period last year, of which the total export volume of clothing was 38 billion 213 million 100 thousand US dollars, down 22.80% from the same period last year.

In terms of weaving, the order situation is still not ideal, and production and marketing are difficult to achieve as a normal market. At present, the loom start rate in Shengze area is around 7. After the Dragon Boat Festival, some factories closed, and the starting rate increased. However, according to the visit, most of the enterprises were already weaving inventory, so the later loom operation rate further declined as a probability event.

The most direct result of continuous weaving and selling is the continuous increase of grey fabric inventory. According to a sample of enterprises monitored by China's silk net, the inventory of grey fabric in Shengze has risen to near 45 days and has been refreshed for 4 years.

Grey cloth price is the final result of high inventory. Take conventional grey cloth as an example:

210T polyester taffeta currently offers around 1.1 yuan / meter, compared with 1.65 yuan in 2018, or 33.33%.

240T spring Asia spinning is currently quoted at about 1.9 yuan / meter, while in 2018 it was about 2.6 yuan / meter, or 26.92%.

380T's current price is about 3.1 yuan / meter, compared with 4.9 yuan in 2018, or 36.73%.

　　 It can be seen that due to the high storage and demand of grey cloth, the price of grey cloth has fallen down, and it is even a loss in the face of selling. It is very difficult to increase prices year after year.

Concluding remarks

Closely linked textile industry chain upstream and downstream, for textile aftermarket view is almost unanimous. At present, whether raw material or grey cloth has fallen to a bottom position, the space of decline is not large, but the driving force of ascension is missing. Textile products can't be "capricious" like pork, and can only earn every penny before the loss comes.