Shenzhen Needs To Solve The Imbalance Between Supply And Demand To Remove The Label Of "Investment Products"

It seems that a cool wind blows to the Shenzhen property market in the summer, and the new regulation policy is finally implemented.

On July 15, Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development, Shenzhen Branch of the people's Bank of China and Shenzhen Insurance Regulatory Bureau jointly issued the notice on further promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market in our city, and formulated new regulatory measures in terms of purchase restriction, loan restriction, sales restriction and taxation.

First of all, the latest purchase restriction policy is upgraded in Shenzhen. First in the first tier cities to implement the three-year housing policy, which is currently the most stringent in all cities. In addition, the "luxury house" line has been raised to 7.5 million, which is in line with Beijing and Shanghai, which means that the down payment ratio and transaction tax of a large part of Shenzhen's housing resources will be greatly increased.

These two measures directly point to the loopholes in Shenzhen's "real estate speculation" in recent years: it is too easy to obtain qualification, and the down payment ratio is significantly lower than that in Beijing and Shanghai.

Many people in the industry believe that the current investment demand will be suppressed immediately.

However, the fundamental problem of housing supply, which leads to rising house prices and strong speculation atmosphere in Shenzhen, has not been completely solved. According to official data, residential land accounts for only 22.6% of construction land in Shenzhen, but there is still much room for improvement compared with the national level of 33% and the international level of more than 40%.

As far as Shenzhen is concerned, the keynote and goal of housing without speculation can only be achieved by removing the label of "investment products" attached to housing to a certain extent.

Real estate speculation under siege

The biggest change in the new deal is to settle down for three years and pay social security for three years in a row, so as to obtain the qualification of purchasing a house.

This makes Shenzhen the only one in the first tier cities who can't buy a house immediately. Previously, some second tier cities, such as Changsha and Xi'an, also required to pay social security for one or two years after settling down to buy a house. However, there is no such policy in the first tier cities. This time, Shenzhen requires three years, which also means that the purchase restriction in Shenzhen has been upgraded to the strictest in China.

In addition, if the husband and wife are divorced and either party purchases commercial housing within three years from the date of divorce, the number of housing units owned by them shall be calculated according to the total number of families before divorce, and those who have obtained the qualification of purchasing houses through divorce are excluded.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, pointed out that most of the speculators obtained the qualification to buy houses with the help of Shenzhen. The new deal will effectively crack down on real estate speculation.

Chen Jinsong, chairman of the world bank, further pointed out that the policy of "local preference" for housing is the same in the world. In recent two years, the number of new entrants has increased, which makes the commercial housing in Shenzhen under great pressure. The "three-year restriction" is to block the purchase of houses with money from all over the country.

Since November last year, the "luxury line" and "luxury tax" have also greatly increased. According to the new rules, the down payment ratio for those who purchase two non ordinary houses and more than 7.5 million houses shall not be less than 60%.

Second hand housing transaction tax reference price will also be updated to make it closer to the market price; at the same time, the VAT exemption period of personal housing transfer will be adjusted from two years to five years.

Zheng shulun, managing director of Zhongyuan in Shenzhen, said that the new deal aims to curb demand, crack down on real estate speculation and increase transaction costs, so as to achieve the effect of cooling the market and controlling the rise of house prices.

Behind the new deal, Shenzhen property market has been booming since the second quarter. According to leyoujia data, in the first half of the year, a total of 16727 new housing units were sold in Shenzhen, a decrease of 5.4% over the same period of the same period last year, but there were many "new" houses. Second hand houses set a record of 44000 units since 2016, an increase of 41.2% year-on-year.

According to the data of China real estate industry association, the transaction price of second-hand houses in Shenzhen in June was as high as 74929 yuan / m2, far higher than that in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.

As a matter of fact, there have been rumors about the introduction of a new regulation and control policy in Shenzhen recently. On July 4, Ni Hong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, visited Shenzhen for investigation and held a forum. On July 8, a group of 10 members from Shenzhen Bureau of housing and urban rural development went to Changsha for investigation and exchange. Changsha has made great achievements in property market regulation and price stability. Whether Changsha is settled or not, it will take two years for social security to buy a house. As a result, Shenzhen has learned from Changsha, and Shenzhen has upgraded to three years. However, Shenzhen did not take into account the four-year sales restriction, four years after the first set of certificates, and the heavier deed tax on the second set.

As for the impact of the new deal, Zhang Dawei analyzed that according to the past practice of Shenzhen market, some investors are likely to start to leave the market. The market volume began to shrink rapidly from July to August, and house prices will also start to adjust. If the policy is strictly implemented in the next half year, the investment proportion will plummet, and the house price will start a round of obvious downward adjustment, with a decrease of more than 5%.

We still need to "cut through the bottom"

Many industry insiders interviewed by reporters pointed out that the new deal is still from the demand side, focusing on curbing unreasonable demand.

However, in the words of song Ding, director of the tourism and real estate research center of the Comprehensive Development Research Institute, this is just "boiling the soup and stopping the boiling". Starting from the supply side, it is "cutting through the bottom" to improve the imbalance between supply and demand.

Song Ding pointed out that the fundamental core problem of Shenzhen property market is the serious shortage of land supply, which can not meet the huge residential demand. The limited supply has become the subject of speculation by investment and speculation forces, which leads to the rise of false fire in the property market and high house prices.

Shenzhen is a small city with only 1997.47 square kilometers, and the proportion of residential land in Shenzhen is low. According to official data, residential land accounts for only 22.6% of construction land in Shenzhen, far lower than the national level of 33% and the international level of more than 40%. Meanwhile, the proportion of industrial and industrial land in Shenzhen has remained above 30% for a long time.

Zhang Dawei also believes that Beijing, the first tier city with the best effect of real estate regulation in China, and Changsha, the second tier city, have achieved long-term stability only by increasing supply and restricting investment; Shenzhen's population inflow trend remains unchanged, and the problem of insufficient land supply still needs to be solved, otherwise the long-term effect of the policy will be limited.

In recent years, many people in the industry have issued many "Prescriptions" to solve the supply problem. At the seminar held by the Ministry of housing and urban rural development in Shenzhen in early July, developers including Vanke Group, China Resources Land and excellence group all proposed to increase the proportion of residential land and promote the implementation of the "commercial to residential" mode.

Vanke Group partner Tan Huajie also proposed to improve the land use rate of Shenzhen.

In order to solve the problem of "land shortage", the Shenzhen government began to make efforts this year. In the first half of 2020, Shenzhen transferred 13 residential land, with an area of 494500 square meters, an increase of 25.7% year-on-year. Shenzhen plans to supply 293.2 hectares of residential land this year, nearly double the 150 hectares planned last year.

On May 28, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development of Shenzhen disclosed that in the second half of this year, Shenzhen plans to launch nearly 70000 housing and business apartment projects. Among them, there are 50618 houses and 18732 business apartments.

Li TingZhong, director of the urban construction, environmental protection and assets management committee of the Standing Committee of the Shenzhen Municipal People's Congress, said that Shenzhen can not only rely on the traditional mode of incremental land development, but also need to revitalize the stock of land for secondary development to realize the economical and intensive use of land resources.

Shenzhen is the first to enter the "old reform" stage in China. On June 30, the highly concerned "Shenzhen Special Economic Zone urban renewal regulations (Draft)" (hereinafter referred to as "the draft") came out to strengthen government guidance, market operation, and solve the problem of urban renewal and relocation.

Up to now, most of the well-known housing developers and enterprises in Shenzhen have owned most of them. China Resources, Evergrande and jiazhaoye alone have tens of millions of square meters of old area being promoted.

Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong provincial housing policy research center, believes that if we still hope to "turn around" in Shenzhen, which is a three acre area, there will always be no solution to the dilemma of regulation and high housing prices. In the future, Shenzhen's property market "soft landing" must jump out of Shenzhen and focus on the large Shenzhen comprehensive cooperation demonstration zone to land as soon as possible.

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