Where Will The Market Go After A-Share Shock Institutions Take The Opportunity To Transfer Positions?

On July 17, the A-share market was still in violent fluctuation.

The day index wide shock, the stock index reversed many times, the end of the collective turn red. By the end of the afternoon, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, barely holding 3200 points. The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.91% and the growth enterprise market index rose 0.61%. The total turnover of the two cities was 1.12 trillion yuan, shrinking compared with the previous period. Beishang capital stopped the trend of net outflow for three consecutive days, with a total net purchase of 1.043 billion yuan, including 397 million yuan in Shanghai stock market and 646 million yuan in Shenzhen stock market.

In terms of sectors, securities, insurance and other financial stocks led the decline, while China Thailand securities, Pacific Securities, Everbright Securities and other securities companies fell to the limit, while environmental protection projects, scenic spot tourism and military industry showed a slightly stronger trend.

Prior to this, the A-share market ran all the way after entering July, and the market had jumped to more than 3400 points. However, this week, affected by the rapid increase in the early stage and the strict inspection of the over-the-counter capital allocation by the regulatory authorities, the market fell for three consecutive trading days, and the net outflow of capital from northbound accumulated to 27.01 billion yuan. In the face of this round of adjustment, the market for the future market judgment appeared divergence.

If the increase is too fast, it will be adjusted

The performance of the A-share market has caught many investors by surprise from the rapid growth in early July to the sudden cooling in recent days. The Shanghai composite index first surged from 2991 on July 1 to 3458, but it has turned negative in the last four trading days, and finally dropped to 3214 in the afternoon of July 17.

During this period, the balance of the two financial services has also changed from a rapid rise in the previous period to a daily decline. On July 16, the balance of the two financing decreased to 1.38 trillion yuan, 0.45% lower than that of the previous trading day, and the trading volume of the two financing was 155.032 billion yuan, 10.76% lower than that of the previous day.

For the sudden changes in the market, many investors believe that the main reason is that the early market rose too fast.

"In the early stage, the market rose too fast, which is an internal reason for this round of market adjustment. From the perspective of external factors, some policy signals recently released have also intensified the market adjustment. On the contrary, it is possible for the market to adjust more quickly if the market rebounds quickly On July 17, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, pointed out.

"Due to the large increase in the early stage of the market, the rising speed is also very fast, so the short-term fluctuation of the market is expected to increase," said Lei, chief research officer of Starstone investment

In Fang Lei's view, market participants still have two concerns. One is that the total economic volume is restored to quasi normal, and the market is worried about the sustainability of the future countercyclical adjustment policy; the other is that the economic recovery presents a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand". In the process of rapid rise in the early stage, the market's expectation for economic recovery is relatively full, and the data structure is slightly lower than that of the market Field expectations.

Yang Xia, director of investment and investment of Guangzhou Xuanyuan, also pointed out to reporters of the 21st century economic report: "we don't quite agree with the overall bull market. We still think that this is a structural bull market, and this structural bull market will continue from 2019 to now. Judging from the current market situation, we think that the market will adjust quickly in a few days. "

It is worth mentioning that on July 17, although the three major stock indexes faced wide adjustment, the A-share market rebounded strongly at the end of the day.

Wind data also shows that on July 17, the transaction volume was still more than trillion yuan. Beishang capital changed the net outflow situation of the previous three days and showed a net inflow state. Dongfang fortune, Luzhou Laojiao, Lixun precision, China Ping An and Yili were bought by Beishang capital by Beishang capital of 619 million yuan, 461 million yuan, 417 million yuan, 410 million yuan and 339 million yuan respectively.

Yang Delong said: "although the market has fallen in the past two days, the turnover has exceeded trillion yuan, which shows that investors are still more active in trading."

However, when it comes to the current state of the market, there are differences.

In Yang Delong's view, the pattern of the A-share market out of the bull market has not changed, nor has the logic of the bull market changed. For example, the trend of large transfer of residents' savings to capital has not changed.

Fang Lei also said: "although the market has experienced a relatively obvious decline in recent days, if we look from a longer time dimension, the basic factors leading to the long-term improvement of market conditions, such as reasonable and sufficient liquidity, continuous repair of economic fundamentals, acceleration of industrial transformation and upgrading, and quality improvement of listed companies under the registration system, have not changed. ”

But Yang Xia thinks: "we are still unable to determine the nature of the current adjustment. Now it seems that the current is a structural bull market rather than a comprehensive bull market, because we believe that the foundation supporting the overall bull market is not so stable, and the index level market will not rise so fast, and it is more driven by industry fundamentals. But in the industry fundamentals, there are more subdivided tracks. "

Organization starts "warehouse adjustment"

In view of the current volatile market situation, what kind of investment strategy should be adopted is the focus of market investors.

The reporter of 21st century economic report learned that many organizations take advantage of this opportunity to adjust their positions. Science and technology, consumption and other sectors are still the most favored areas. However, there are different focuses on specific sub sectors. For sectors with high valuation, many institutional people suggest that they should be avoided in the short term.

For example, we expect that we will pay more attention to the construction of new technologies in the semiconductor market after two or three years. For example, we expect that we will be more optimistic about the construction of new technologies in the field of automotive technology

At the same time, Yang Xia revealed that his institution will do a good job in switching short-term trading style to blue chip.

"We believe that in the context of 'industrial transformation and upgrading + industry concentration + economic recovery + loose liquidity', all types of growth stocks have good investment opportunities throughout the year. Focus on: areas benefiting from economic recovery and industrial upgrading, such as high-end equipment; areas benefiting from industrial upgrading and loose liquidity, such as 5g industrial chain, software and Internet industry, new energy vehicle industry chain, etc.; areas benefiting from economic recovery and industry concentration, such as mass consumption, express delivery, aviation, industrial metals, etc.; and precious metals with loose liquidity 。”

Yang Delong believes that consumption, securities companies and technology can be focused on for a long time, but the valuation is high from the perspective of stages. This adjustment is a process of killing valuation, and the actual performance is improving. Therefore, after the valuation falls, it will provide the opportunity for investors who have been short in the early stage to get on the bus.

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