More Than 60% Of Kangtai Biological'S Performance In The Second Quarter Soared Together. Is The Valuation Of 137 Billion Institutions "Too High To Be Cold"?

On July 21, Kangtai bio rose 7.74% to 204.56 yuan / share, with a total market value of 137.6 billion yuan and a dynamic P / E ratio of 238.8 times.

The semi annual report shows that in the first half of the year, the company realized a total operating revenue of 870 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 260 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.6%; and the earnings per share was 0.4 yuan. During the reporting period, the company's gross profit rate was 92.9%, increased by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit rate was 29.9%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.1 percentage points. During the reporting period, the company invested 93.7466 million yuan in R & D, with a year-on-year increase of 13.56%.

It is worth mentioning that in the first quarter of this year, affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the sales volume of Kangtai biological products decreased, and the net profit decreased by more than 97%. However, when the epidemic situation improved and vaccination resumed, the company's revenue in the second quarter was 693 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 48.63%; the net profit attributable to the mother was 252 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 62.44%; after deducting non-profit, it was 252 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 68.8%.

"In the first quarter, the Centers for Disease Control and vaccination asked everyone to do epidemic prevention work. For a period of time, the vaccination Department suspended vaccination, and then the vaccination was resumed. During this period, the company did a lot of promotion work, and the sales volume of the products came up." On July 21, Kangtai bio Securities Department responded to the 21st century economic report reporter who called as an investor.

Quadruple seedlings drive up performance

If we want to take stock of the most popular investment plate since this year, big health, which is dominated by medicine, is an area that can not be bypassed. Among them, the vaccine sub plate with high performance certainty and rising prosperity is the hot spot to be pursued. Since 2020, the biological vaccine index has risen by 91.70%.

"In fact, the logic of these vaccine companies' share price rise is very simple, that is, good performance and strong certainty." On July 21, the investment director of a private equity firm in South China was interviewed.

For example, Changchun hi tech is expected to make a profit of about 1.235 billion yuan to 1.381 billion yuan in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 70% - 90%; in the first half of 2020, the net profit attributable to shareholders of Kanghua bio will be about 161 million yuan to 169 million yuan, with an increase of 89.92% - 99.36% compared with the same period of last year.

Specifically, in terms of products, the sales revenue of its core product quadruple vaccine reached 618 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.66%; the sales revenue of 23 price pneumonia vaccine reached 77.0184 million yuan. In the second quarter, the company's production of vaccines was obviously accelerated.

According to the data of the Chinese people's Procuratorate, in the first half of the year, a total of 3.12 million Tetravaccine batches were issued for Kangtai biological core products, a significant increase of 245% over the same period of last year, and about 50% in the first and second quarters respectively; 1.676 million pieces of 23 valent pneumonia vaccine were issued, all in the second quarter, but no batch was issued in the same period of last year; 1.228 million pieces of Hib vaccine were issued, with a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, of which the second quarter accounted for about 75.6%; hepatitis B virus Affected by the relocation of factory buildings, no approval was issued in the first half of the year.

"The growth rate in the second quarter was relatively fast, which was in line with the market expectations. On the one hand, the vaccine was resumed in the second quarter. On the other hand, in the first half of last year, Kangtai biological quadruple vaccine was not issued very much, but more this year. Moreover, the triple vaccine of Zhifei biological was not approved, and the five vaccine was also in the approval process, so the quadruple vaccine (Kangtai) sold well. ”Huajin securities biomedical industry analyst Wang Rui pointed out in an interview.

On the evening of the release of the China Daily News, Kangtai bio also excited the market with a "announcement on the investment and implementation of baiwangxin emergency engineering construction project".

According to the announcement, Kangtai bio plans to invest 1 billion yuan in the construction of baiwangxin emergency project, and build new vaccine production workshops such as new crown pneumonia vaccine, Life Science Research Institute and related supporting facilities.

As early as February this year, Kangtai bio announced that it had signed a strategic cooperation agreement with adivishin to jointly develop the new coronal DNA vaccine. In addition, the company is also promoting the four technical approaches of inactivation, mRNA, DNA and recombinant VLP. The project focuses on the research and production of new vaccines such as Xinguan pneumonia, which provides sufficient production capacity for the company's new crown vaccine products, and also helps the company to carry out disease continuously in the future Research on virus related vaccine.

Kangtai biological announced that it was preparing to build a new coronal pneumonia vaccine production workshop and Research Institute, which once again made the market "imaginative". On July 21, Kangtai bio's share price rose by more than 7%, and its share price has risen by 133.01% since 2020.

However, on the other side of the stock price movement, Kangtai biological has not disclosed the research and development progress of the new crown DNA vaccine.

Earlier, organic said that the new vaccine had passed the meeting and received the approval of clinical trial on July 17, but the news did not receive official response.

On the 21st, 21st century business reporter also called the Kangtai biological Securities Department on the research and development progress of the vaccine, but the operator said that "it is not clear, the details are subject to the announcement".

"At present, many vaccine companies in China are basically laying out new coronal vaccines, because there will be a large number of people if they want to vaccinate with new crowns in the future. In fact, vaccine research and development has been promoted, but there is no announcement from Kangtai, and we are not sure about the specific impact. " Wang Rui said.

Debate on valuation behind soaring prices

With the rapid recovery of its business and the prospect of new coronal vaccine, Kangtai biological has become the favorite of many institutions.

According to the semi annual report, as of the end of June, the total number of shareholders of Kangtai bio was 18332, an increase of nearly 3000 over the first quarter. The total number of shares held by Lutong reached 191.7 million, including 58.8 million shares held by foreign investors.

Liu Gesong, the public offering champion in 2019, is undoubtedly the "No.1 fan" of Kangtai biology. Among the seven hybrid products managed by him, Kangtai bio was listed in the top 10 heavy positions at the end of the second quarter. Among them, Guangfa double engine upgrade hybrid, Guangfa technology innovation hybrid, GF small Cap Growth hybrid, GF innovation and upgrading flexible configuration hybrid, and GF diversified emerging stocks ranked Kangtai bio No.1 A large position.

The top shareholders of Kangfa, Qingfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa, Guangfa.

With the increasingly serious phenomenon of institutions, some investors also have some doubts about the valuation of Kangtai bio.

According to the public data, as of July 21, the dynamic P / E ratio of Kangtai biological has exceeded 238.8 times, while in the same period, the dynamic P / E ratio of Zhifei bio, Changchun hi tech, Liaoning Chengda and Kanghua biology has exceeded 238.8 times, 91.9 times, 99.35 times, 99.35 times, 61.01 times and 165.25 times, respectively.

"At present, its valuation is indeed relatively high. Although there is a logic that the strong are always strong, we think that the valuation of Kangtai biological is not cost-effective, which is far higher than that of Zhifei and other leading companies." Said the investment director of the above-mentioned private institutions.

However, some organizations believe that as one of the leading vaccine producers with the most abundant production lines in China, Kangtai biological has a promising future.

"The investment is based on expectations. The performance of Kangtai biological products in the second quarter is indeed quite outstanding. The market access of 15 provinces has been completed. We predict that the market access will be completed in the second half of this year. There is still a very large space for growth in the second half of this year." On July 21, a vaccine industry analyst of a medium-sized securities firm in South China was interviewed.

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