New Third Board Selected Layer Opening Countdown: Institutional Repeat "Hot Issue" Expected To Start On The First Day

After the first selection of companies, all parties are expected to complete the first round of IPO. Due to the popularity of the first batch of public offerings by individual investors and institutions, the market is generally optimistic about the first day's expectations.

"Judging from the current popularity of selected issues and the valuation of P / E ratio, the market performance trend of the selected layer after the opening of the board will duplicate the performance of the science and technology innovation board and the growth enterprise market." Yunzhou capital partner Xi Qingqing said. ，

At the same time, many institutions are also resuming the impact of this public offering.

"The first public offering of the selected layer is over, but the marginal impact is far-reaching." Shen Wan Hongyuan new third board research director Liu Jing said.

In the past month, the new third board market has completed the public offering of the first batch of selected enterprises. Due to the different structure of investors and some unique issuance rules, the IPO of the new third board is very different from that of A-share IPO, which will affect the public offering of the new third board for a long time.

Double listing and public offering

The issuance of the first batch of selected enterprises has always reflected the different characteristics of the new third board market. Although the issuing process has completely tended to the registration system of the science and technology innovation board, due to the different structure of investors, there are many unique phenomena in the offline inquiry pricing.

From the perspective of the structure of investors, the scale of individual funds accounts for more than that of institutions. According to the statistics of 2.608 million individuals who participated in the research of hongyuan.com, a total of 2.59 million individuals participated in the study.

We can see that the growth of institutional investors is slower according to the statistics. This is mainly due to the lack of launch time. Our previous model assumes that on average, one company will be issued on each trading day, and three companies will be issued within three days in a batch. The amount of offline placement of each batch is 500 million. However, the average amount of each batch of online financing exceeded the expected pace of RMB 1.2 billion. " Liu Jing said.

According to the statistics of Shenwan Hongyuan, the individual accounts for the highest proportion of the final off-line frozen fund scale, with an average of 49.3%. Private equity funds and self-employed securities companies rank second and third, accounting for 30.7% and 14.8% respectively. In terms of the final winning amount, the amount of personal placement was also more than half, reaching 51.3%. Private placement and self financing of securities companies ranked second and third, accounting for 25.2% and 16.3% respectively.

However, although the scale of individual investors' participation is larger, the impact of institutions on pricing is greater in the overall situation.

For example, according to the preliminary inquiry of the first batch of enterprises, the shortlisted rate of individuals and enterprise legal persons is the lowest, and the high rejection rate is the highest. In addition, in the case of high quotation, the high rejection rate of public offering, self operated securities companies, asset management and private funds is significantly lower than that of individuals, enterprise legal persons and other institutions, which also means that institutional investors are more rational in inquiry.

The strategy of mainstream institutions has also been significantly divided. According to Shenwan Hongyuan's analysis, there are two camps for the purchase strategy of the selected layer.

Taking private placement as an example, Linyuan, Dingfeng, Yiluo and other institutions have a large number of placements, high shortlisted rate and large winning amount. However, shaosou faction only participated in three new ventures, with the shortlisted rate of 100%, but the amount of winning lots ranked fourth in private placement. Similarly, there is a similar phenomenon in the self operation of securities companies, such as Cinda securities and Guoxin Securities, which have a high participation rate and a large amount of winning lots, while Dongfang securities has a low participation rate, but the amount of winning lots is also large.

Liu Jing believes that this reflects the investment strategies of two types of institutions. One type has a high participation rate and continues the A-share innovation strategy, believing in the first dividend effect of the market; the other type selects individual stocks and pays more attention to the rationality of the quotation, and often places heavy bets on a few high-quality stocks.

The impact of institutions, especially public funds, on pricing is also reflected in the level of war investment endorsement. According to the strategic data, there are 16 companies participating in the strategic placement, with an average of 2.32% of the companies participating in the strategic placement. Wells Fargo fund, huitianfu fund, Harvest Fund and China Merchants Fund participated in 7, 4, 2 and 1 strategic placement respectively.

There is also a clear differentiation in the level of subscription. "We divided the first batch of selected stocks into three groups: no war matching group, public offering war matching group and non public offering war matching group, with the number of 17, 10 and 5 respectively. From the data, we can clearly see that the overbooking times of the two groups with war matching are much higher than those of the non war matching group, and the subscription times of the group with public offering and war matching are higher both offline and online. " Liu Jing said.

Expected "good start" on the first day

As the market funds to participate in the selection layer of the heat far beyond the previous market expectations, for the performance of the first day of the board selection layer, investment institutions generally have optimistic expectations.

The important foundation of optimistic expectation is the enthusiasm of investors to apply online. According to the statistics of Shenwan Hongyuan, only 15.3% of the online investors of 32 companies were finally allocated. Among them, two companies have made top grid declaration, but there may be no result later.

However, most of the investors changed their bidding strategies, but the number of investors' participation did not decrease significantly, only from the initial 500000 participants to the final 300000.

Liu Jing believes that the participation rate is still high compared with the 1.3 million account opening number of the selected layer. Therefore, it can be inferred that the secondary performance of the first batch of selected layers at the end of July is worth looking forward to.

Zhou Yunnan, founder of Nanshan investment, put forward "two impossibilities and three possibilities" for the performance prediction of the first day's selected layer.

He told reporters: "the first day of listing of the first batch of 32 selected layers is impossible. As the pricing of the first batch of selected layers exceeds the previous market expectation, many market participants are worried about the first day break. This kind of concern can be understood, but at least it will not appear on the first day. Second, it is impossible to keep up with the recent scientific and technological innovation board A few people in the market are too optimistic and think that the first day will be the same as the first day of the new shares listed on the science and technology innovation board at least 200%, which is not a reasonable view

As for the three possibilities, Zhou Yunnan said: "it is speculated that the trend of individual stocks in the secondary market may be close to the first day trend of the first batch of science and technology innovation boards a year ago, that is, opening high and going high, then falling and adjusting, and then oscillating; in terms of the increase, the comprehensive increase may be about 50%, a few stocks will reach more than 100%, and a few stocks will be less than 30%; and in terms of the total amount of daily transactions, it may be It has set a record high of the new third board, close to 10 billion yuan, which is also the highest in a period of time in the future. "

During the exchange with market participants, the reporter also learned that some market participants believe that the overall expectation of the first day of the selection layer is optimistic, but there will be some trend differentiation.

Chang Chunlin, founding partner of Li Wu capital, told reporters: "due to the positioning difference between the selection layer itself and the science and technology innovation board, the average first day growth of the first batch of 32 enterprises in the selection layer is certainly lower than that of the first batch of companies on the science and technology innovation board. It is estimated that the first day average growth rate of the first batch of 32 selected enterprises will be about 50%, and the first day growth rate of most enterprises is expected to be between 20% and 80%. However, due to the different industries and different texture of enterprises, the first day's increase of listed companies may be seriously differentiated. Therefore, there may be some enterprises whose first day's increase is less than 20%, but there are also a small number of enterprises whose first day's increase will exceed 80%, or even some enterprises' first day's increase will exceed 100%. "

At the same time, Chang Chunlin also pointed out that the selected enterprises are more inclusive and the quality of enterprises is uneven. In the later stage, some listed enterprises may break out on the first day. The closing price on the first day of listing of the first batch of 32 enterprises may be a periodic high, so investors are reminded to pay attention to risks. When selecting target companies, enterprises with competitive advantages and high growth should be selected as far as possible, so as to better share the dividend of selected layers.

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