"China Aviation News" And "Rapid Growth Of Film And Television Industry"

By the end of August 6, 1617 listed companies had issued performance forecasts, accounting for 40% of the listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. This is enough to effectively show the evolution trend of various industries during the first half of the epidemic.

For A-share enterprises, the biggest variable is that the sudden outbreak of the new crown has broken the original operation rhythm of the industry, and prompted a huge change in its landscape and business operation, with both advantages and disadvantages.

"One side is the freezing of business, film and television, aviation and other industries, and the other is the rapid growth of profitability of related pharmaceutical enterprises." On August 6, analysts at a large brokerage concluded.

Taking medical devices under the subdivision as an example, the profits reported by enterprises in the mask industry chain which had been "hard to find a mask" increased by a collective margin. The profit of Xinlong Holdings (000955. SZ) increased by at least 22 times, and that of Enke medical (300677. SZ) increased by 25 times.

It is particularly noteworthy that, in the second half of the year, although the domestic epidemic situation has been effectively controlled, the overseas situation is still not optimistic, which will continue to affect the macro, meso and micro enterprise management.

Epidemic situation reshapes industry prosperity

Meltblown cloth, a small minority of raw materials in the first half of the year because of its soaring market, once attracted the attention of the whole people. Although the price of raw materials was also increased at that time, the adjustment range of cost side was much lower.

In the first half of this year, the scale of production increased. Yanjiang shares (300658. SZ) had a net profit of 275 million to 355 million yuan in the first half of the year, compared with 44.33 million yuan in the same period last year.

Among them, the key is to promote the epidemic situation: on the one hand, the company's overseas subsidiaries have reached a new high, on the other hand, the company is also expanding the domestic melt blown fabric production capacity, thus driving the company's business data to significantly improve.

In terms of the performance pre disclosure of the interim report, most of the medical equipment enterprises with epidemic situation in the first half of the year achieved year-on-year growth.

For example, Zhende medical (60330.1. SH), which produces masks, protective clothing and isolation clothing, has seen its revenue scale increase from more than 30 million yuan to 2.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year.

There are also singles champions. In the first half of the year, Daan gene (002030. SZ) increased its revenue by 3 times and profit by 11 times. The main driving factor was the obvious large volume of its nucleic acid detection kit and other products.

In the first half of the year, for example, the rapid growth of SZ food (sz.002216) and fast food (sz.002216) were the main reasons for the rapid growth of "sanzhai" and "sanzhai (SZ) food in the first half of the year.

However, the 21st century economic report exclusively learned that at present, some mask concept enterprises have started to lay off workers, and the possible changes are worth watching.

In addition, through reshaping the supply and demand of some key industries, the epidemic has also brought significant changes to the entire industrial chain. Crude oil fell below US $10 / barrel in the first half of the year, and countries collectively increased their crude oil reserves. At that time, oil tankers gathered at sea.

Under the above background, the shipping freight has skyrocketed.

The 21st century economic report reporter tracks the data and understands that the data given by COSCO Haineng (600026. SH) shows that "the average equivalent time charter rent of VLCC (Middle East China) route is 82200 US dollars / day, an increase of 303.74% year-on-year." COSCO (6012.601) and COSCO Group led the performance in half a year.

In contrast, the impact of the epidemic on aviation, film and television industries has shown a cold and merciless side, and some business data are sufficient to illustrate.

In the first half of 2020, the total box office of the national film market was only 2.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 92.8%, and the number of film viewers was 60.058 million, a decrease of 92.6% year-on-year.

In June this year, the passenger turnover of China Eastern Airlines (600115. SH) decreased by 61.51% year-on-year, of which the passenger turnover of domestic, international and regional routes decreased by 41.13%, 96.88% and 99.26% respectively.

Compared with the data in recent months, it can be seen that although domestic passenger turnover has recovered, overseas affected by the epidemic situation, the international passenger turnover of China Eastern Airlines has decreased accordingly. This means that the search for the bottom of the aviation industry has not come to an end.

Performance in the financial report, Shandong Airlines, China Airlines (002928. SZ) has been clear losses, other airlines performance changes may not be good.

Shopping malls and department stores are also the hardest hit area. The 8 listed companies that have released performance forecasts have all experienced a decline in business data without exception.

Plate rotation guidance certainty?

Corresponding to the stock price, the secondary market has priced the evolution of the above industry prosperity.

Take the medical machinery industry with concentrated epidemic prevention materials as an example, with a cumulative increase of 114.5% in the first half of the year, ranking first among all Shenwan industries.

Among them, many bull stocks of the year were born. After excluding the new shares listed in the year, the cumulative increase of enko medical (300677. SZ) in the first half of the year reached 671.7%, and the net profit increased by 25.8 times in the same period. However, this benefited from the increase in the selling price and sales volume of disposable protective gloves.

However, since the A-share market "630 market" started, plate rotation has appeared some obvious changes.

Up to now, the top three sectors of non-ferrous metal manufacturing industry, such as non-ferrous metal manufacturing industry, non-ferrous metal manufacturing industry and non-ferrous metal industry ranked the top three in terms of growth in the first month.

Among them, the relationship between defense industry and epidemic situation is limited, which is mainly affected by the recent Sino US relations. Non silver is the "family background" accumulated when the bull market is booming in July, while nonferrous metals are related to the expectation of industry profit recovery brought by the collective rebound of basic metals.

It should be pointed out that the top shenwanwan industries in the above-mentioned period also include construction materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and chemical industry, with a cumulative increase of more than 20%, which is significantly higher than the listed companies of epidemic prevention.

Is there any opportunity for the strong performance of traditional stock market And so on.

Tracking to the relevant industries, we can see that the prosperity of some industries has improved significantly.

Taking the nonferrous metals industry as an example, it is needless to say that the international gold price has reached a new high of US $2000 / oz. now the daily rise is making history.

Basic metal performance is also commendable. In mid March, copper, zinc and lead took the lead in stabilizing and rebounding, and aluminum prices bottomed out in early April, with the prices of such basic metals rising continuously.

Copper rebounded close to the August low, which was more than 37% by the end of August.

This is not an example. Commodities rebounding in the second half of the year also include coal, coke and steel industry chain priced domestically, building materials such as cement that are about to enter the peak consumption season, and some upstream raw materials at the bottom of the cycle.

The underlying logic is that most of the international raw material prices are priced in US dollars, while the continued weakening of the US dollar constitutes the support for such commodities. At the same time, the world's liquidity is loose, and the market inflation expectations will increase, thus pushing up asset prices.

Similar to the performance improvement logic of the listed companies of epidemic prevention, the traditional industries will also be subject to the double support of price and sales volume, which will be converted into the actual profits of listed companies.

However, at present, it is difficult to determine that, although domestic downstream demand has begun to bottom out and pick up, the drag of the epidemic on global market demand is still repeated. At present, the price of cyclical products is only structural rise, not general rise.

?