U.S. Block Wechat Or Affect Iphone Shipment A-Share Apple Industrial Chain Company'S Pressure

If Apple removes wechat from the global app store, Guo Mingzhen of Tianfeng securities estimates that the annual iPhone shipment will be reduced by 25% - 30%

If you had to choose between wechat and apple, which would you choose?

According to Xinhua News Agency (Xinhua) and its wechat version, it will be prohibited to conduct any overseas transaction with Tik and its parent company in the United States on August 6, which will constitute a threat to the security of the U.S. national mobile company and its overseas wechat.

The administrative order is interpreted by the industry as saying that the overseas Google App market and Apple App store may be removed from the shelves of tiktok and wechat after September 20. As soon as the news came out, the above-mentioned problem of "choosing one from two" was put in front of the fruit powder.

Many people already have the answer. In China, wechat occupies a monopoly position of social software. Once it is removed from the apple market, users are likely to abandon Apple phones and use other brands instead. This choice will affect Apple's mobile phone shipment, which will indirectly affect a large number of Chinese companies in Apple's industrial chain.

On August 7, Apple shares fell 2.27%. On August 10, the decline of A-share Apple index was the largest, with the drop limit of Apple's distributor in China, the limit of huanxu electronics, and the drop of Xinwei communication, lens technology and BYD.

Shipment volume or 30%?

If the U.S. government asked apple to remove wechat from the app store, the industry would not be surprised. Apple had previously removed wechat from its app store in India in response to government requests.

Wechat or apple mobile phone? The latter or the choice of most people is supported by the following data:

According to the voting data launched by a well-known financial blogger, 39% of the 200000 users who participated in the voting used Android phones; 55% of the users needed to use wechat and gave up the iPhone; only 4% chose to continue to use Apple mobile phones instead of wechat.

Once the apple store is removed from wechat, the impact on the sales of Apple mobile phones is self-evident.

At present, the industry has two views on offline wechat. The pessimistic view holds that Apple may be forced to remove wechat from the global app store due to the prohibition of Apple's business with wechat; the optimistic view is that the U.S. government may only require apple to remove wechat from the U.S. app store because the scope of blocking is not clearly defined.

Guo Mingzhen of Tianfeng securities analyzed that if the former is pessimistic, the shipment volume of Apple hardware products in the Chinese market will decline significantly. It is estimated that the annual shipment of iPhone will be reduced by 25% - 30%, while that of other Apple hardware devices, including airpods, iPad, apple watch and MAC, will be reduced by 15% - 25%.

If it is the latter, it will mainly have a negative impact on wechat users in the United States. It is estimated that iPhone shipment will be reduced by 3% - 6%, while the annual shipment of other Apple hardware devices, including airpods, iPad, apple watch and MAC, will be reduced by less than 3%.

"If the policy is implemented, it will have a great impact on Apple sales, and the company will probably negotiate with the U.S. government." An electronics industry analyst told reporters, "Apple's iPhone 12 is expected to be launched in September, but the orders are planned ahead of time every year. This year, affected by the epidemic, it has been pushed back by a month. This order will not be affected by the order reduction in the future

Apple industrial chain division of labor around the world, domestic companies can not avoid the storm. On the 10th, the A-share Apple index fell 1.38%, and the agency also began to downgrade the industry.

"In view of the increase in the past two months, it is still possible for trump to implement the new order due to the increase in the past two weeks." According to the latest research report of Pacific Securities. Guo suggested that investors at least reduce their holdings of certain apple supply chain stocks at this stage.

The impact of industrial chain performance is delayed

Since the beginning of this year, consumer electronics has suffered a lot. In the first quarter, affected by the epidemic, apple sales fell sharply; in the second quarter, the epidemic situation eased, apple sales ushered in recovery growth, and the performance of domestic apple industry chain companies also rose.

Among them, 20 companies are expected to suffer losses, and 2 companies are happy to report the performance of related industries.

In the first half of this year, the net profit of Apple's lens suppliers is expected to increase by 25.45 billion yuan to - 20.45 billion yuan. The company said that the optical business maintained rapid growth, some large customers' orders increased, high-end module and optical lens shipment increased, and profitability continued to improve. The net profit of Changying precision increased by 71.33% - 93.61% in the first half of the year, mainly due to the relatively large growth of laptop, tablet and wearable products.

However, if the chain of a shares continues to have a positive impact on the industry.

"IPhone business branches will be most affected, and those services with relatively low dependence on wechat, such as headphones and watches, will be less affected. Take the iPhone 12 as an example. Previously, the industry chain predicted that mobile phones would be shipped from November to December. The performance of Q3, a manufacturer of the industrial chain, would be slightly lower, while the performance of Q4 and next year's H1 would be improved. If this matter finally comes to an end, the decline in H1 performance next year will be obvious. " Said the electronics industry analyst.

What is the reaction of relevant listed companies? A number of companies contacted by 21st century economic report reporters said that since the administrative order has not yet been implemented and the relevant impact has not been evaluated, the overall attitude is relatively optimistic.

The optical component manufacturers in the upstream of the crystal industry are apple optical components manufacturers. The relevant person in charge told reporters, "the US government's blocking of wechat will have a greater impact on the terminal of the industrial chain, but it is difficult to judge the impact on the terminal, and it is difficult to judge the future product shipment based on such a news."

Although the mobile phone industry accounts for 60% - 70% of the company's revenue, the company also has many auxiliary industries, including reflective materials, led, smart home products, financial payment, etc. The mobile phone industry chain is not the only dependence of the company, and the overall anti risk ability of the company is gradually enhanced.

As long as wechat is not a new software developer, it will not be a dead substitute for wechat software.

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