Unbearable Weight: Whose "Neck" Is Stuck By The Price Rise Of Photovoltaic Industry Chain?

When Tongwei solar announced on August 10 that it would raise the price of single-crystal cells again, a sentence of "live for a long time" has become a general comment on the recent price rise of photovoltaic industry chain.

The price rise of the photovoltaic industry chain, which started in July this year, is becoming more and more intense, and has triggered a strong reaction from the end market. Some photovoltaic dealers told the reporter of the 21st century economic report that the sudden price increase has "disordered" the spot market of modules, and many photovoltaic projects have considered delaying or even stopping work.

21st century economic reporter learned that in this round of price increase, the downstream terminal enterprises have become the "most injured" Party: on the one hand, in the whole photovoltaic industry chain, the closer to the user, the lower the profit space, the higher the price pressure from upstream will further compress the profit space of the terminal market; on the other hand, the profit space will be squeezed, which will affect the investment developers of downstream power stations As a result, the overall enthusiasm of the terminal market will cool down, and eventually "eat back" the entire photovoltaic industry chain.

"This price rise will cause the downstream enterprises can not bear the heavy burden." Qian Jing, vice president of Jingke energy, said in an interview with the 21st century economic reporter that to deal with the short-term price rise caused by the short-term imbalance between supply and demand, the upstream and downstream of the supply chain, including policy makers, should work together to minimize the impact.

"Two difficulties" for component manufacturers

"Now it's a problem whether you can get the components or not, and the project can't start." A person in charge of a photovoltaic power plant investment enterprise told the 21st century economic report that under the threat of rising prices in the industrial chain, the pessimism of "starting to pay for death, not starting to wait for death" appears.

The 21st century economic reporter learned from several photovoltaic enterprises that the current round of price rise has made the module manufacturers at the end of the manufacturing process and the terminal enterprises close to the user market suffering.

In an interview with the reporter of 21st century economic report, a person from a domestic first-line photovoltaic enterprise who did not want to be named said that there was a certain "chaos" in the quotation of modules due to the rise of upstream prices. In particular, some component OEM enterprises have stopped their orders, resulting in the failure to perform the contract normally.

The last round of continuous price rise of domestic photovoltaic industry appeared at the end of the third quarter of 2016.

At that time, domestic polycrystalline silicon materials (first-class materials) hit a new stage low and then rebounded, which led to a temporary rise in the prices of single and polycrystalline silicon chips. However, in 2018, due to the centralized release of photovoltaic capacity, the industrial chain ushered in a substantial price reduction. Take polycrystalline silicon material as an example, up to the eve of the price rise of the industrial chain, the price of domestic polysilicon material (primary material) has dropped by 66% in recent two years.

In the context of affordable access to the Internet, the current round of price hikes in the photovoltaic industry chain are indeed "Crazy".

As of August 7, the latest price excluding tax of domestic polysilicon (primary material) was about 88.23 yuan / kg, up 51.67% from the price at the end of June. It is worth mentioning that this price is close to the price level in the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019.

The price rise caused by the change of supply-demand relationship in polysilicon material market is quickly transmitted to the end of silicon wafer and battery. The company has been listed on the stock market for many times, and the stock price has been raised.

In late July, Longji Co., Ltd. raised the price of silicon wafers twice. Its latest quotation is: m 6175 μ m thickness (166 / 223mm) of single crystal silicon wafer is 3.03 yuan / piece, and g1175 μ m thickness (158.75 / 223mm) of single crystal silicon wafer is 2.9 yuan / piece, which is 15.65% and 14.62% higher than that at the end of June.

Tongwei Solar has raised the price of single and polycrystalline cells one after another. Its latest quotations are: polycrystalline battery (diamond wire 157mm) 0.60 yuan / watt, single crystal perc battery (single and double sided 156.75mm) 0.95 yuan / watt, single crystal perc cell (single and double sided 158.75mm) 0.97 yuan / watt, and single crystal perc cell (single and double sided 166mm) 0.97 yuan / watt, respectively, which are 20%, 21.79%, 21.25% and 21.25% higher than the prices at the end of June.

At the same time, the prices of auxiliary materials such as photovoltaic glass, silver paste, packaging film, welding tape, aluminum frame and other auxiliary materials have collectively "gone up with the tide", further boosting the price rise tide of the industrial chain. The pressure on component manufacturers is piling up.

"This price increase has a great impact on component manufacturers, so we have to disperse the pressure through price increase." The above-mentioned photovoltaic enterprise personage pointed out to the reporter of the 21st century economic report that module manufacturers play two difficult roles in the rising price tide. On the one hand, they need to face the pressure brought by the rising prices of silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries and auxiliary materials; on the other hand, module manufacturers directly deal with the terminal market, and the price increase is bound to be subject to pressure from the terminal.

However, the topic of "vertical integration of photovoltaic industry" is heating up.

"Component enterprises need to consider future strategies as appropriate, from pursuing market share to moderately improving their vertical integration." Qian Jing said that this round of price hikes have blocked the "neck" of component manufacturers and downstream enterprises.

What about the terminal market?

The recent price rise rhythm of photovoltaic industry chain is somewhat unexpected, which makes the voice from the industrial chain gradually rise.

When increasing the price of silicon wafers, Longji shares, in response to the reporter of the 21st century economic report, stressed that its passive price adjustment was not seeking short-term interests. Wang Yingge, brand general manager of Longji Co., Ltd., said, "in the face of the overall price rise of polysilicon and auxiliary materials in the short term, Longji is willing to work with the industrial chain to fully communicate, overcome challenges, balance price and market development, and manage industrial ecology well."

"After the pressure of supply and demand is balanced, the price will fall back, recover or even lower than the previous level." Qian Jing also called on the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry supply chain, including policy makers, to work together to cope with the short-term price rise, and predicted that the price of the industrial chain would return to a normal position from October to November this year.

A senior analyst in the new energy industry told the 21st century economic report that in the first half of this year, most photovoltaic enterprises were affected by the epidemic to a certain extent, and their performance declined. Photovoltaic enterprises located in the upstream of the manufacturing end can achieve both the volume and price of products through this round of price increase, and repair profits, which is also a normal behavior to safeguard the interests of enterprises.

It further pointed out that in this price rise tide, leading enterprises have not been found to have malicious interference in the market behavior, the price rise is a market behavior. Therefore, in the whole industry chain price rising tide, it seems unrealistic to rely on the cooperation of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and negotiate price adjustment to disperse the cost pressure.

In the first half of this year, the net profit of Tongwei was RMB 1.87 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of RMB 1.87 billion.

The epidemic situation led to the decline of photovoltaic industry demand in the first half of the year, and the prices of silicon materials and solar cells dropped significantly. The profit of photovoltaic business of Tongwei company was relatively under pressure, and the gross profit rate declined.

However, if we want to solve the negative impact of short-term price rise, it is inevitable to cooperate with each other.

Qian Jing put forward suggestions from four aspects: for the downstream power plant enterprises, if possible, postpone the project to next year; for the government, whether to moderately relax the grid connection period and give the industry a buffer period, so that the downstream development enterprises can continue to implement the project within the pressure bearing capacity, so as to avoid hitting the investment enthusiasm in the future; for the component enterprises, especially for the first-line group of the head Component manufacturers should consider the future strategy as appropriate, from pursuing market share to moderately improving their vertical integration degree, so as to make the future development more sustainable and independent; for professional design institutes, when planning projects, they can moderately open the specification setting, and too rigid procurement standards can only let downstream enterprises bear the price increase losses caused by monopoly.

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