End Price Of Cotton Yarn Rises Slowly

Last week (August 17-21), with the orderly recovery of domestic economy, foreign epidemic situation slightly eased, terminal consumption slowly recovered, cotton prices remained volatile, bottom up trend. Due to the recovery of cotton yarn production capacity faster than the terminal consumption, the supply is relatively surplus, the epidemic situation and Sino US friction have double hit on the domestic economy, and the consumption ability and consumption intention of residents on textile and clothing have decreased significantly. In addition, after the appreciation of RMB, it also faces the impact of low-cost imported yarn. The price competition is fierce, and the price continues to fall. The profit is seriously compressed, and the industry's loss is maintained at a high level. Cotton substitutes, polyester staple fiber price of 5430 yuan / ton is relatively stable, viscose staple fiber price of 8500 yuan / ton, driven by demand, rose slightly, price difference remained high, superimposed consumption degradation, cotton substitution continued to increase. Cotton cncotton B index was 12357 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 116 yuan / ton. Compared with zhengmian CF2009, the premium was 77 yuan / ton, an increase of 51 yuan / ton.

Futures 。 Lack of information guidance, Zheng cotton relying on the 10 day moving average narrow consolidation. CF2009 closed at 12280 yuan / ton on Friday (21st), up 65 yuan / ton, with a weekly fluctuation of only 170 yuan / ton. As the delivery approached in September, the funds moved quickly to January, and the transactions and positions decreased significantly, with 231415 transactions, a decrease of 68.2% and a decrease of 33.3% in positions. Cf2101, the main contract, closed at 12930 yuan / ton on Friday (21st), up 90 yuan / ton on the week, with transactions and positions increasing slightly. Positions in the top 20, holding more than 268777 hands, little change. There were 376301 empty orders, 26679 weekly reductions, 107524 clearance orders and 6554 weekly reductions, with a small reduction in the clearance, mainly with Hedging Short orders. 15312 warehouse receipts were registered and 1084 were reduced weekly. There are 278 forecasts, 1114 weekly decreases, and the reportable resources decrease. The global epidemic situation is still continuing, and prevention and control has been normalized. Improper operation by the United States worsens the international trade environment and destroys international trade rules. The global trade order and the recovery of China's economy are facing more challenges. Before Sino US relations and the epidemic situation improve, Zheng Mian may fluctuate in a low range for a long time. Xinmian is about to be listed in September, which will bring pressure on the disk. The purchase of Xinmian and the trend of zhengmian are also discussed The main cf21010 contract of zhengmian is more likely to fluctuate in the range of 12500-13100 yuan / ton.

Outer disk : export contract signing and shipment data are good, China's purchase volume is large, China and the United States may resume contact in the near future, American cotton prices rise, ice's main contract in December closed 64.28 cents / pound, up 133 points weekly. The global trade environment has deteriorated, and the epidemic situation in some overseas regions is still very serious. The friction between China and the United States has been upgraded, textile and clothing consumption has been degraded, and the proportion of cotton used has decreased. Before the epidemic situation and the improvement of Sino US relations, cotton consumption will maintain a low level, and the fluctuation probability of cotton price low range is large.

Spot 。 During the whole week, the fluctuation range of zhengmian was small, the low point was higher than the market expectation and the point price listing concentration area, the transaction was relatively small, only a small amount of rigid demand and fixed price resources were traded. The spot price of cotton in Xinjiang in mainland China is mainly about 12200 yuan / ton of CF2009 contract, 300-600 yuan / ton of machine picked cotton basis, and 700-900 yuan / ton of hand picked cotton. Among the imported cotton, Brazilian cotton was relatively active due to its better performance price ratio than Xinjiang cotton of the same quality; there were also a small number of transactions of low-priced Indian and West African cotton, while transactions of high-priced Australian cotton and American cotton were rare. With the increase of inventory, the price of American cotton decreased slightly. Cotton mills still adopt the strategy of "buy as you go" and "buy at low price".

Operation suggestions 。 The normalization of the epidemic situation between China and the United States may still be difficult to improve in the short term. New cotton listing in the near future, increased supply, negative disk. Consumption reduction superimposed consumption degradation, leading to some cotton raw materials replaced by low-cost chemical fiber, cotton prices will be low shocks, with the recovery of consumption, the bottom gradually rise. The mill should grasp the rhythm, control the reasonable stock, and purchase in stages.