Focus On US Cotton Export

On August 26, ICE Futures made a slight adjustment the day before yesterday. Hurricane "Laura" is expected to upgrade to category 4 hurricane, which will weaken to level 3 after landing, bringing a lot of stimulation to the market. The market is worried that the hurricane will continue to develop inland after landing. Although the new cotton in the Delta region has just opened bolls, the strong wind may still blow down the cotton bolls.

However, with the passage of time, hurricane "Laura" began to move to the northwest, slightly deviated from the Delta, landing in the Texas and Louisiana border area, the market atmosphere quickly calmed down, cotton prices fell from the high point until flat.

The weekly US cotton export report will be released on Thursday. The export data of last week is very powerful, especially the shipment volume. Considering that China and the United States have just held trade talks, the market expects China's demand to continue to increase, and the weakening of the US dollar also creates conditions for us cotton exports.

From the basic point of view, the global supply of cotton is still abundant. Unless there is a significant reduction in cotton production caused by weather disasters, the situation of global oversupply will not change. At present, cotton production in mainland China is expected to decrease, and a large area of cotton bollworm disaster has also appeared in India, and the later production needs to be further clarified.

In addition, the Federal Reserve is expected to announce its decision to negotiate interest rates on Thursday. Traders and investors are concerned about whether the Fed will imply that the inflation target will be shifted to the average level, that is, the average inflation within a certain period of time, rather than setting a fixed target of 2%, which will lead to a fall in interest rates and is likely to lead to a fall in the dollar.