Reporter Observation Whether Domestic Duty-Free Shops Can "Reverse The Wind"?

Under the influence of the epidemic situation, buying abroad is hindered, but it brings about the hot return of domestic luxury sales.

According to Bain consulting data, in 2019, Chinese consumers spent more than 500 billion yuan on luxury goods abroad, and the luxury market in mainland China was about 30 billion euros (about 234.5 billion yuan), so there was a large space for consumption return.

Ms. Zhang, who often travels to Hainan due to her working relationship, told the 21st century economic reporter that although her annual demand for luxury goods and beauty cosmetics is not small, she still tends to buy them when she leaves the country. On the one hand, there is a gap between Hainan duty-free city and Europe in terms of the completeness of goods; on the other hand, her shopping experience and teller specialty also make her more inclined to buy overseas 。 This year, Hainan returned to China because of the epidemic.

The unavoidable reality is that despite the continuous relaxation of domestic policies, domestic duty-free shops still seem to be difficult to become the preferred place for consumers with outbound travel conditions.

Previous survey data showed that about 37% of Chinese consumers' overseas consumption occurred in duty-free shops, including duty-free shops at airports at home and abroad and duty-free shops in cities abroad. Take the tax-free market in South Korea as an example. 70% of the 140 billion tax-free market is contributed by the Chinese. At present, only 9% of Chinese consumers spend in duty-free shops at Chinese airports.

In fact, it is difficult for Japanese consumers to buy goods from overseas in the 21st century because they are accustomed to buying goods from overseas in Japan and abroad The experience is relatively good, such as the invisible welfare of giving samples, which makes it difficult to change the previous consumption habits.

The mode of "duty-free shopping" in South Korea has been adopted to stimulate the development of its domestic stores.

In recent years, as the luxury industry has begun to turn to online sales channels, for domestic duty-free stores, the future competitors are not only overseas duty-free stores, but also various kinds of luxury e-commerce.

In order to catch hold of the market, tax-free stores have become a breakthrough in the market.

According to the statistical bulletin of Beijing's national economic and social development in 2019 released by the Beijing Municipal Bureau of statistics and the Beijing survey team of the National Bureau of statistics, Beijing received 3.769 million inbound tourists in 2019, including 3.207 million foreign tourists and 562000 Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan tourists. The volume and commodity types of duty-free shops in Beijing airport are limited. If we increase the number of duty-free shops in the city, we can increase the choice of tourists and improve the convenience of shopping.

According to the analysis of CITIC Construction Research Report, if the quota is 8000 yuan per time, it is estimated that the total tax-free amount in Beijing will be about 13-14 billion yuan in 2021, and the cultivation period of duty-free shops in the city will account for about 20% of the total tax-free amount, then the space of duty-free shops in Beijing will be about 2.6-2.8 billion yuan in 2021; it is expected that in five years' time, the duty-free shops in Beijing will account for 40% - 45% of the total tax-free amount. In 2024, the total amount of duty-free shops in Beijing is expected to reach 27 billion yuan, and the sales volume of duty-free shops in the city is about 10.8-12.2 billion yuan. For Sanya duty-free stores, assuming the net interest rate is 13%, the net profit of duty-free shops in Beijing is about 1.4-1.6 billion yuan. If the quota is 15000 yuan each time, the customer price is expected to increase by 25%. By the end of 2024, the total tax-free amount in Beijing is expected to reach 33.7 billion yuan, the sales volume of duty-free shops in the city will reach 13.5-15.2 billion yuan, and the net profit will be about 1.75-2 billion yuan.

Hainan duty free shop: the new holy land of haidaimen?

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