Interpretation: The Trend Of Purchasing Manager Index Of Manufacturing Industry In August Was Stable

On August 31, 2020, the National Bureau of purchasing managers and China purchasing service center jointly released the survey. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.

In August, all localities actively implemented the decision-making and deployment of the CPC Central Committee, adhered to the new development concept and the general keynote of seeking progress while maintaining stability, and coordinated the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and achieved remarkable results, and China's economic prosperity continued to recover. The purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry was 51.0%, slightly lower than that of the previous month by 0.1 percentage point, while the non manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 55.2% and 54.5%, respectively higher than 1.0% and 0.4% of the previous month, and the three major indexes remained above the critical point for six consecutive months.

　　 1、 Smooth operation of purchasing industry manager

In August, the PMI of manufacturing industry was 51.0%. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 15 of them were in the boom zone. Main features of the month:

First, demand continued to recover and the supply and demand cycle gradually improved. The index of new orders was 52.0%, higher than 0.3 percentage points of the previous month, rising for four consecutive months. From the industry situation, the new order index of pharmaceutical, non-metallic products, metal products, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, electrical and mechanical equipment and other manufacturing industries was 4.0 percentage points higher than the previous month. This month's production index was 53.5%, and the difference with the new orders index narrowed to 1.5 percentage points, the lowest since March.

Second, steady the development of foreign trade policies, and the overall export is better. The effect of a series of policies to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment continued to release, and the export of manufacturing industry further improved. The index of new export orders this month was 49.1%, 0.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. Among them, 7 industries such as non-metallic products, non-ferrous metal products and metal products were above the critical point.

Third, the development of new driving forces has been accelerated, and the transformation and upgrading have been continuously promoted. From the perspective of key industries, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry were 52.8% and 52.7%, respectively higher than 1.5% and 0.9% of the previous month, and 1.8% and 1.7% higher than that of manufacturing industry. New momentum has injected vitality into the recovery of manufacturing industry.

Fourth, the market price has gradually improved. The purchasing price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials were 58.3% and 53.2%, respectively higher than 0.2% and 1.0% of the previous month. From the perspective of the industry, the two price indexes of steel, nonferrous metals and other industries are both higher than 60.0%, and the prices of some upstream industries have risen rapidly.

Fifth, business expectations have improved and business confidence has increased. This month, the expected index of enterprise production and operation activities was 58.6%, 0.8 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. From the perspective of industry situation, the expected production and operation activities of agricultural and sideline food processing, food and wine beverage refined tea, medicine, special equipment, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, electrical machinery and equipment, etc. are all higher than 60.0%.

The survey results also showed that the PMI of small enterprises was 47.7%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, still below the critical point. This month, more than 50% and 40% of small enterprises reported insufficient market demand and tight funds respectively, and their production and operation are still facing many difficulties. In addition, some enterprises in Chongqing, Sichuan and other places reported that affected by the rainstorm and flood, the purchasing cycle of raw materials was prolonged, the market orders were reduced, and the production of enterprises fell down.

　 2. The index of non manufacturing business activities rose

In August, the non manufacturing business activity index was 55.2%, 1.0 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the recovery momentum of non manufacturing industry continued to improve.

The recovery of the service industry has accelerated. The business activity index of the service industry was 54.3%, up 1.2 percentage points over the previous month. From the industry situation, the business activity index of transportation, telecommunications and other industries was above 60.0% for four consecutive months, and the total business volume continued to recover rapidly. With the stable situation of domestic epidemic prevention and control, the residents' consumption demand accelerated to release, and the accommodation, catering, cultural, sports and entertainment industries resumed operation in an orderly manner, the market activity increased, and the business activity index continued to rise, both high Driven by the overall economic recovery, the business activity index of leasing and business services rose above the critical point for the first time since the outbreak. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities was 61.3%, which was basically the same as that of the previous month. Among them, the railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, Internet software and other industries were higher than 65.0%, and the enterprise development confidence was stable.

The high level of construction industry dropped slightly. The business activity index of the construction industry was 60.2%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, of which the civil engineering construction industry was 57.7%, lower than 4.8 percentage points of the previous month; the housing construction industry and the construction installation and decoration industry were 59.9% and 66.8%, respectively higher than 0.3% and 7.8% of the previous month. From the perspective of market demand and expectation, the index of new orders was 56.4%, 1.8 percentage points higher than that of the previous month; the expected index of business activities was 66.6%, which remained above 66.0% for four consecutive months. With the steady progress of infrastructure construction and the reduction of high temperature and rainfall weather, the construction industry is expected to continue to maintain rapid development in the near future.

3. The output index of comprehensive PMI is higher than that of last month

In August, the comprehensive PMI output index was 54.5%, 0.4% higher than the previous month, and the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to recover. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, were 53.5% and 55.2% respectively, falling and rising month on month.