Weak Demand, Polyester Bottle Piece Short-Term Stalemate Finishing

Recent domestic polyester bottle chip market low consolidation, supply and demand deadlock. But the cost side still has support, bottle piece price center of gravity fluctuates narrowly. There is no bidding for the downstream terminal soft drink factory recently, and the transaction is mainly made up by small and medium-sized processing enterprises. Traders have little trading space and are cautious in trading.

Lack of support for cost PTA

Figure 1 price comparison of PTA / MEG and polyester bottle pieces in East China market

Data source: Longzhong information

The raw material end is as shown in the figure one As shown in Fig PTA There was no obvious fluctuation in the price, and the price trend remained basically the same. Therefore, Xiaobian thinks that polyester bottle chip as a cost-effective product, the change of raw material end directly affects the trend of bottle chip. As of the end of this Thursday, the East China market PTA goods in stock three thousand five hundred and sixty element / Tons, up narrower than the same period last week. In addition, Fuhai Chuang's load decreased and Eason Ningbo plant's maintenance was implemented, which reduced the market supply, While polyester demand is stable in the short term PTA Supply and demand continue to go to the warehouse pattern. However, it is difficult to improve the situation of excessive supply and demand in the medium and long term 。 ten Yuexin plant xinfengming phase II two hundred and twenty Ten thousand tons, Fujian Baihong two hundred and fifty Ten thousand tons are still expected to be put into production. Therefore, the short-term cost side PTA Strong shocks, but with the increase in supply, there is a risk of callback.

Polyester bottle piece, the current mainstream factory East China market actual single negotiation 5200-5300 element / Ton delivery, traders price in 5150-5300 element / Tons, little change compared with the same period last week. On the whole, crude oil is not good for the time being, and there is a small callback space this week. On the one hand, the cost side of the bottle piece is temporarily supported, and the profit space continues to narrow. Therefore, the price keeping attitude of bottle chip manufacturers is strong, and there is limited space to continue to go down; on the other hand, bottle chip is mainly the downstream soft drink industry nine Month gradually into the traditional off-season, the overall construction is expected to decline ten About one percentage point ， Due to the weather in northern China, the decline will be even greater. Although compared with other general-purpose plastics, polyester bottle chips have absolute price advantages and can replace some market consumption, but due to its small volume, it is not enough to boost the market. In a word, the market sentiment of bottle slice is more pessimistic under the competition between supply and demand.

High level of PET bottle chip industry

Figure 2 trend chart of operating rate of PET bottle flake manufacturers from 2019 to 2020

Data source: Longzhong information

　　 As shown in the figure two As shown in the table, from the industry operating load point of view, the current domestic polyester bottle chip industry operating load maintained at 83.34% , up from the same period last week one point two four Percentage points. At present, the start-up of bottle flake factory is stable, and there is no maintenance plan in the short term, so as to deliver the orders of downstream soft drink manufacturers on schedule. This month, Jiangyin is clear and high sixty Ten thousand tons of units are expected to restart, but based on past performance, it is expected that this month will not contribute much to the market. Partial factory inventory pressure increases, does not rule out the possibility of late low price shipment.

To sum up: short term PTA Strong shock, the bottle piece market has a certain boost. However, under the influence of the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, under the increasing pressure of shipment, the late bottle factories or carriers may ship at low prices. Short term polyester bottle chip market to maintain deadlock, waiting for new news to break the stalemate situation. If the overseas epidemic situation is not effectively controlled, it is difficult to improve the weak pattern of polyester bottle chips in the fourth quarter.