China'S Auto Market Has Been Growing For Five Consecutive Months, And The Upgrading Of Consumption Has Forced The Transformation Of Local Automobile Enterprises

On September 10, the monthly production and sales data released by the China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "CAAC") showed that the national automobile production and sales reached 2.119 million and 2.186 million respectively in August, up 6.3% and 11.6% year-on-year. China's automobile sales volume has achieved year-on-year growth for five consecutive months, and the single month growth rate since May has exceeded double-digit.

In the first eight months of this year, 14.432 million cars and 14.551 million cars were produced and sold, down 9.6% and 9.7% year-on-year, and the decline rates were 2.2% and 3.0% lower than those in the previous July.

In the traditional off-season of auto industry such as July and August, the market recovery situation continues to be good, and the Auto Association of China is also optimistic about the coming auto consumption peak season.

"In the near future, activities such as consumption promotion month carried out by government departments, new energy vehicles going to the countryside and other activities, as well as consumption promotion policies issued by various regions, will effectively boost the consumer confidence of the people. At the same time, the Beijing International Auto Show, which opens in late September, will promote the full launch of new products of enterprises, and add to the demand for self driving travel brought by the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. These will also further stimulate automobile consumption, thus increasing the popularity of the "golden nine silver ten" consumption peak season. " On September 10, Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, said.

Since the second half of 2018, China's automobile market has continued to decline. In the past two years, the "golden nine silver ten" market has not performed well, and all of them have experienced different degrees of decline. However, with the release of consumer demand and the favorable policies this year, this situation is expected to reverse. However, the car market in the fourth quarter will still face certain challenges.

"The growth momentum of" gold nine silver ten "should continue, and the automobile market should still be able to maintain a relatively good growth. In terms of the fourth quarter, the relatively high market growth rate can not be guaranteed. " On September 10, Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, told reporters of the 21st century economic report.

Low end market to speed up shuffling

The commercial vehicle sector has played an important role in promoting the recovery of China's auto market. The main reason is the rapid expansion of the demand for logistics vehicles under the promotion of the new infrastructure.

In August, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 425000 and 431000, respectively, up 42.8% and 41.6% year-on-year. Among them, freight cars continued to maintain high-speed growth, with production and sales of 390000 and 396000 respectively, with growth rates of nearly 50%. From the cumulative data, from January to August, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 3.256 million and 3.263 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 19.3% and 17.3%.

In terms of passenger cars, although it has recovered in recent months, the situation is still grim in the whole year due to the large gap in the first quarter. However, the production and sales of passenger cars decreased by 1.750.04% compared with the same period of last year. From January to August, the production and sales of passenger cars were 11.176 million and 11.288 million, down 15.5% and 15.4% year-on-year.

At the same time, there are also structural adjustments in the passenger car market that China is experiencing, showing the coexistence of consumption upgrading and low-end purchasing power shortage. On the one hand, the market share of high-end cars represented by Mercedes Benz, BMW, Audi and Lexus has been increasing; on the other hand, the sales volume of low-end market with price below 100000 yuan has declined significantly, which also leads to the continuous decline of market share of self-made brand passenger cars.

The sales volume of independent brands increased by 65.5 million in the same month. The market share of independent brands in a single month was 37.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points, achieving the first growth in nearly five months. This is also the second time in 30 months since April 2018 that the market share of independent brand passenger cars has increased in a single month. The last positive year-on-year growth was in February of this year. However, the situation in that month was extremely special. In that month, China's automobile production and sales fell by more than 80%, and the market structure was not representative.

"In August, the market share of independent brands increased, on the one hand, it benefited from the continuous recovery of market demand, on the other hand, it also benefited from the promotion of the high-end pace of Chinese brands." Chen Shihua said.

Specifically, China's auto market began to recover in May, and the suppressed demand began to release gradually in the first quarter. The recovery time of different market segments was slightly different. "The suppressed demand from January to March will be released in April, may and June, and this part of consumer groups mainly focus on joint venture brands. After July and August, we can see that flexible consumption has gradually become normal, and the whole consumer market tends to be normal. In this way, the content of independent brands in it is gradually increasing. " Xu Haidong told reporters of the 21st century economic report.

However, on the overall trend, the consumption upgrading of the automobile industry is also forcing the upgrading of independent brands. From the internal market structure of independent brands, the differentiation is very obvious. Geely, Chang'an, great wall and other independent brands have a rapid recovery momentum, but the market share has increased, but a number of marginal brands are gradually losing competitiveness in the market.

With the change of China's automobile market demand, the era of extensive development of China's independent brands in the dividend period has passed, which puts forward higher requirements for independent brands.

"The appearance of these self owned brand cars in China is becoming more and more beautiful. At the same time, they are advancing in the direction of improving product quality and brand upward. Now, the cars pushed out by independent brands are not like the original low price to win, but to attract consumers with their own product competitiveness, appearance, quality and Internet configuration. " Xu Haidong said.

Reshaping the market pattern of new energy vehicles

China's new energy vehicle market, which experienced a cliff like decline in the first half of the year, has gradually recovered from July and August. Supported by the activities of new energy going to the countryside and local government's consumption of new energy vehicles, the market scale of new energy vehicles has increased steadily. In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 106000 and 109000, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.7% and 25.8%. In the first eight months, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 602000 and 596000, respectively, down 26.2% and 26.4% year-on-year.

Xu Haidong predicted that, excluding domestic Tesla, the sales of new energy vehicles this year will reach about 1 million, and the sales level of Tesla in China this year is estimated to be about 100000. Under such circumstances, the scale of the new energy vehicle market this year is 1.1 million, slightly lower than that of last year's 1.2 million.

It is worth noting that great pattern adjustment has taken place in China's new energy vehicle market this year. From the point of view of "high-end market" and "dumbbell" market, the overall performance is similar to that of the low-end market.

According to the data from the Federation of passengers and passengers, the trend of high and low ends of electric vehicles was obvious in August. The sales volume of A00 class was 25000, and the share increased to 31% of pure electric vehicles. In August, SAIC GM Wuling had 18300 vehicles, BYD had 14300 vehicles, and Tesla China had 11800 vehicles, ranking among the top three. The new energy vehicle market was diversified.

In the low-end market, SAIC GM Wuling's Hongguang Mini EV, with a starting price of 28800 yuan, quickly surpassed the model 3 to become the best-selling electric vehicle in China. Previously, BAIC new energy, which ranked first in sales in China's pure electric vehicle market for seven consecutive years, is facing the most severe challenge because of the sluggish demand in the operation market. According to the monthly production and sales data released by BAIC Blue Valley (600733. SH), the sales volume of BAIC new energy in August was only 2132 vehicles, with a cumulative sales volume of 18800 vehicles in the first eight months, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 80%.

With the promotion of new energy vehicles going to the countryside, low-end new energy vehicle enterprises may make profits in the next few months, and some models may have some corresponding growth. This also shows that, after the decline of subsidies, the relevant enterprises are constantly adjusting their strategies and aiming at different markets. In the low-end market, China's own brands have certain advantages.

It is worth noting that, unlike in the field of traditional fuel vehicles, the competitiveness of China's own brands in the high-end market is weak. However, China's local enterprises have shown certain competitiveness in the high-end new energy vehicle market. Among them, the new forces of car making are playing an increasingly important role.

In the middle and high-end market, the leading car companies represented by Weilai, ideality, Xiaopeng, Weima, etc., have continued to grow in sales and compete with Tesla. Weilai's monthly delivery volume continued to rise, reaching 3965 units in August, the highest level in history. This year's cumulative delivery volume was 21700 vehicles, and the monthly sales volume of ideal, Xiaopeng and Weima also exceeded 2000 vehicles for several consecutive months. Although there is still an obvious gap between China's new car making forces and Tesla, the stable sales of these companies make it possible for these enterprises to survive.

"The whole new force of car making is developing steadily. We think this is a good omen in China's new energy vehicle market. It represents the development of a new force and the acceptance of new energy vehicles by consumers." Xu Haidong said.

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