"New Shares Are Not Broken" Response To Registration System Price Reconstruction Of Haitong Securities "Follow Investment Mechanism"

The myth of "new shares unbeaten" is fading gradually, and the era of risk-free arbitrage is far away.

On September 10, the closing price of Meichang shares, a new stock listed under the gem registration system, fell below the issue price.

This is another new issue listed under the gem registration system after the breaking of Fengshang culture on September 9.

On the same day, Zhongwang cloth art (605003. SH), which had been listed on the main board for only three days, fell to the limit shortly after opening, breaking the issue price.

The previous day, after the first trading day's trading limit, people's hope cloth art opened on the second trading day and closed at 37.08 yuan, which was the same as the closing price of the previous trading day.

"The main reason is that the market environment has been falling recently, coupled with market-oriented inquiry, it is normal to break out." Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, told reporters of the 21st century economic report on September 10.

But for institutional investors, the change is "too fast to resist.".

Frequent new stock breaks

In fact, six of the new shares listed in August and September have been broken.

September 10 burst of public expectations, cloth art just on the 8th in the main board listing.

Zhongwang cloth art, founded in 1994, is a leading enterprise in the textile industry of Yuhang District, Hangzhou city. Its main business is the R & D, design, production and sales of medium and high-grade decorative fabrics and products.

According to the data from the Dragon Tiger list of popular expectations on September 9, the two organizations appeared to sell sales department seats, with a total net sales of 5.2738 million yuan.

The new stock of sci tech innovation board, Ruilian new material, gives investors a vivid lesson that "it is not necessary to make money to buy it".

From September 2 to September 7, Ruilian new materials fell below the issue price of 113.72 yuan in just four trading days. September 9 fell 7.68% to 93.29 yuan, breaking 18%. On September 10, it rose slightly to close at 94.13 yuan, still down 17.23% from the issue price.

On September 9, a shareholder of Ruilian new material bar got a small fire by "winning 10 contracts and losing 60000".

Subsequently, the shareholder issued a statement that "winning 10 lots means that I bought 5000 shares below the issue price, which is equivalent to winning the lot".

According to the public information, Ruilian new materials is a high-tech enterprise focusing on the R & D, production and sales of special organic new materials.

Its sponsor is Haitong Securities, and Haitong innovation Securities Investment Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the securities company, has a floating loss of 10.3357 million yuan as of September 10.

As of the end of May, 173 stocks of Sinochem and SINOCHEM were still in the state of breaking down, among which, Sinochem and SINOCHEM were still in the state of breaking up 10 shares of Sinochem and SINOCHEM.

According to the statistics of 21st century economic reporter, under the gem registration system, two new shares of Fengshang culture and Meichang have been broken, and gemet is only one step away from breaking.

On September 10, the sentiment of A-share market was depressed again. The three major stock indexes all closed green. 3350 stocks fell and only 498 rose.

In particular, the growth enterprise market panic to the extreme.

On September 10, the growth enterprise market (GEM) reached 50 stocks with a ceiling of 20%. The previous trading day, there was only one security technology company, and there was no one in the front. If the decline is further relaxed to more than 10%, the number of GEM companies that exceed the decline in the whole day is as high as 343. Equivalent to every 10 GEM stocks, 4 stocks fell more than 10%.

Beijing to play a new private sector principal said: "originally on the gem's first batch of confidence, but now the market is unexpected, some positions have fallen hard to resist."

New ecological changes

In fact, excluding the factors of the recent market downturn, with the continuous promotion of the registration system reform, the performance differentiation of new shares has become increasingly obvious, and the breakout is more and more common. Market participants believe that this is the market-oriented inquiry issuance mechanism, the normal performance of the market regulation mechanism.

Figure IC Photo

In fact, in mature markets such as us and Hong Kong stocks, breakouts are very common.

Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Finance and securities of Wuhan University of science and technology, points out that, for example, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has a very small price difference in the primary and secondary markets. The closing price of most new shares on the first day of listing is slightly higher than or slightly lower than the offering price, and the ratio of breaking shares is generally as high as 30%.

From the point of view of the "zero risk" investment in the Hong Kong stock exchange, it is quite different from the "zero risk" investment in the new stock market.

According to the data, 128 companies on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange realized IPO in 2018. Among them, 65 stocks rose on the first day of listing, 47 stocks fell below the offering price on the first day of listing, and the closing price of 16 stocks on the first day of listing was exactly the same as the offering price. In 2018, the proportion of new shares broken on the first day of listing on the main board of the Hong Kong stock exchange was as high as 36.7%. If zero increase is added, the total ratio of break and zero increase is as high as 49%.

The data shows that nearly half of the new shares listed on the main board of Hong Kong stock market did not make money or even lost money on the first day of listing.

In 2019, 161 new shares were issued on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the growth enterprise market. A total of 88 new shares were listed with the closing price higher than the offering price on the first day of listing, while the closing price of 73 new shares fell below the offering price on the first day of listing, with the proportion of new shares breaking 45% in the whole year.

From August 1, 2019 to July 31, 2020, 23.78% of new shares in the U.S. stock market were "broken" on the first day of listing.

In addition, 15.85% of the new shares rose between 0-1% on the first day of listing, and 19.51% of the shares rose 1-10% on the first day of listing. In other words, 59.15% of new shares in the US stock market rose less than 10% on the first day of listing.

The market-oriented reform in the history of A-share has also shown the characteristics of mature market.

Chen Yi Investment points out that A-share has practiced the market-oriented pricing of new shares in 1995-1996 and from June 2009 to November 2012, and the performance of the breaking rate is highly consistent with that of the mature market. From June 2009 to November 2012, 877 stocks were issued with market-oriented pricing. The short-term break rate was relatively high, with an average of 20% on the first day. The change of medium-term break rate was related to the sales restriction period, and the breaking rate reached a new high 8-10 months after the end of one-year sales period. The long-term break rate was related to the basic characteristics of enterprises, and the 3-year break rate dropped back to 40%. The stock prices of stocks with EPS annual growth rate of more than 20% in the first three years of listing accumulated over 3 years However, stocks with EPS growth rate less than 20% have only increased by 60% in three years; when the securities market goes down, the first day's breaking rate rises simultaneously.

However, the market-oriented reform at that time failed to continue. In November 2012, the trend of A-share continued to be low, and the pressure of public opinion was too large, so the regulatory authorities stopped IPO.

In January 2014, after the IPO was restarted, it returned to the 23 times price control stage due to emergencies, until the registration system reform was started and the market-oriented inquiry issuance was started again.

The change of pricing mechanism

After the implementation of the registration system of the science and technology innovation board, the issuing speed and pricing have been in line with the mature market.

In December 2019, the breakout rate of the science and technology innovation board once reached 16%.

Morning one investment predicts that with the fluctuation of the securities market and the lifting of the ban on the size of the non tradable securities market, the breakout rate of the science and technology innovation board may continue to rise, which is a manifestation of the normal functioning of the market regulation mechanism.

Under the recent market downturn, the emergence speed of gem breaking has also been significantly ahead of that of the science and technology innovation board.

On September 9, Fengshang culture, the first batch of new shares registered on the science and technology innovation board, broke out, with the closing price down 3.33% from the issue price, only 13 trading days before its listing on August 24.

Prior to that, the science and technology innovation board was opened for trading on July 22, 2019, and the first break occurred on November 6, 2019.

On the same day, haohaishengke, a new stock on the science and technology innovation board, fell below 89.23 yuan in the call auction stage on the sixth trading day after listing, becoming the first time for the science and technology innovation board to break new shares.

Subsequently, jiuri new materials fell below the issue price of 66.68 yuan after a substantial 5.65% opening. After the first day of listing, which was 6.42% higher than the first day of listing, it broke out on the second trading day.

"When new shares are broken in large areas, investors will soon realize that it is no longer buying lottery tickets. In the market-oriented inquiry stage from 2009 to 2012, due to the breaking rate of more than 20%, less funds for new sales, and the winning bid rate rose to 2-3%; there were even some cases of issuance failure due to insufficient inquiry objects. The collapse of the myth that new shares are invincible will prompt the market to give the pricing power to professional institutions. At this time, the placing right should also be returned to the Underwriters, so that they can cultivate real institutional investors and make the market mechanism operate more efficiently. " Morning one investment that.

"In the future, if the registration system reform can withstand the pressure of breaking out in a large area and go through a complete cycle of bull bear transformation, market participants will break the past thinking inertia and form an effective market-oriented constraint mechanism, which means that the registration system reform is really successful." It points out.

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