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Polyester Staple Fiber Futures Market Is Imminent, What Changes Will Happen To The Industry?

2020/9/12 20:59:00 17

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With the coming of the futures market, the traditional trade mode of polyester staple fiber may change. In the following, the author will briefly introduce the basic knowledge, basic situation, future trend and the impact of futures listing on polyester staple fiber, so as to answer questions and solve doubts for customers and friends.

1、 Product introduction

Polyester fiber is the first synthetic fiber, which can be divided into two categories: polyester filament and polyester staple fiber. Among them, polyester staple fiber, short for PSF, together with cotton and viscose staple fiber, are known as the three major raw materials in the cotton spinning industry; the products are mainly used in the cotton spinning industry (spinning), spinning alone or blended with cotton, viscose fiber, hemp, wool, vinylon, etc., and the yarn obtained is mainly used for textile and clothing, as well as non-woven fabrics, fillers and thermal insulation materials. At present, the current quality standard is in accordance with GB t 14464-2017; the main specifications of the products are semi dull white 1.56 dtex * 38mm (reference specification), semi gloss 1.33 * 38mm, lustrous 1.33 * 38mm, special specification for spunlace, 2.22 / 2.78 * 51mm medium length fiber, 3-15d three-dimensional hollow, low melting point (4080) staple fiber, and other ultra-fine denier, colored and cationic staple fibers account for a small proportion.

Company introduction:

Danielle (d) : is a fineness expression of chemical fibers, which refers to the weight of 9000 meters of fiber, gram number, also known as denier number. It is usually expressed by D. the larger the D, the thicker the fiber. For example, 1.4d, 1.2D, 2D, 6D, etc.

Dtex : decimeter is the international unit of fiber size. The weight of a 10000 meter long fiber is in grams. The larger the number of grams, the thicker the yarn or fiber. Such as 1.56 dtex, 1.33 dtex, 2.22 dtex, etc.

The conversion method is as follows:

Dtex = 1.11 * Dan (d)

Status of polyester staple fiber in polyester industry chain

Data source: Longzhong information

Figure 1 production capacity proportion of polyester products

Based on the polyester production capacity (6327) in August 2020, polyester staple fiber accounts for 13% of the total polyester production capacity, which is not high in the polyester industry. However, due to the large number of traders and downstream enterprises, the trading activity of polyester staple fiber in polyester products is good.

2、 Supply and demand fundamentals of polyester staple fiber

Table 1 supply and demand balance of direct spinning polyester staple fiber in the past five years

Unit: 10000 tons

classification	two thousand and fifteen year	two thousand and sixteen year	two thousand and seventeen year	two thousand and eighteen year	two thousand and nineteen year
yield	four hundred and twenty-six	four hundred and forty-seven	four hundred and ninety-nine point nine	five hundred and fifty-one point zero seven	six hundred and twenty-five point two six
Import volume	seven	seven	ten	twelve	seventeen
Domestic consumption	three hundred and eighty	three hundred and ninety-two	four hundred and forty-eight	four hundred and eighty-nine point five	five hundred and sixty-two
Export volume	fifty-six	sixty-two	sixty	sixty-four	eighty
opening inventory	twelve	nine	nine	ten point nine	twenty point four
Ending inventory	nine	nine	ten point nine	twenty point four	seventeen
Difference between supply and demand	-3	zero	two	ten	zero

Data sources: Longzhong information, customs data

Remarks: the import and export volume is obtained by discarding the regenerated staple fiber.

Taking 2019 as the benchmark, the total production capacity of China's melt direct spinning polyester staple fiber (including hollow and low melting point) was 7.901 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.52%. The actual output was 6.526 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 13.46%. In the past five years, the direct spinning polyester staple fiber industry has changed from oversupply to balance supply and demand. Specifically, from 2015 to 2016, the direct spinning polyester staple fiber industry has been oversupply for a long time, and the capacity utilization rate has been maintained at a low level of 60% - 70%. However, since the implementation of the "no waste" policy in 2017, due to the direct spinning polyester staple fiber replacing some recycled polyester staple fiber in some fields (mainly low-end spinning and filling industry), the industry's supply-demand relationship has been rebalanced, the industry's yield has been greatly improved, and the polyester staple fiber industry has ushered in the peak capacity expansion in 2018. However, due to the massive expansion of polyester staple fiber production capacity, the follow-up efforts of downstream traditional demand are not as strong as the increase of supply, so the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry may be highlighted again in the future.

Table 2 new production capacity of polyester staple fiber in the next three years

Abbreviation of enterprise	Production capacity involved (10000 tons)	Commissioning time	Varieties involved	Device address
Huaxi chemical fiber	ten	two thousand and twenty end of the year	Polyester staple fiber	Jiangyin
Suqian Yida	thirty	two thousand and twenty-one year	Polyester staple fiber / Hollow	Suqian
China Thailand	twenty-five	two thousand and twenty-one end of the year	Polyester staple fiber	Xinjiang
Jixing chemical fiber	thirty	two thousand and twenty-two year	Differential staple fiber	Guang'an, Sichuan
Chemical friend of China fiber	sixty	undetermined	Polyester staple fiber	Tongxiang
Tongkun	undetermined	undetermined	Polyester staple fiber	Nantong
Some refining and chemical integration projects are also investigating staple fiber projects

Unit: 10000 tons

Proportion of downstream consumption

Data source: Longzhong information

Figure 2 proportion of downstream consumption of direct spinning polyester staple fiber

Still based on the data of 2019, spinning and thread making (sewing thread) field accounts for 76.2% of the total polyester staple fiber consumption market, so the proportion of polyester staple fiber in the textile sector is still the largest. However, in 2020, affected by the epidemic situation, the proportion of non-woven fabrics (including acupuncture and spunlace) will increase. In addition, the market consumption in the filling industry will also increase due to the continuous occupation of hollow and low melting point staple fibers in the recycling market. However, the actual consumption of conventional single yarn and sewing thread industry is difficult to increase due to the impact of trade friction and the continuous spread of overseas epidemic situation in the textile and garment industry.

3、 Future development trend of the industry

one It will gradually replace the demand field of conventional recycled polyester fiber (mainly recycled staple fiber). In the future, only differentiated products and GRS certified products will have good circulation. Since the peak of PX capacity expansion in 2019, the polymerization cost in China is relatively low. However, from the end of 2020 to 2021, the PTA industry will be put into production. In recent years, the direct spinning staple fiber will still maintain the absolute low-cost price advantage. In the future, the market will continue to replace the market share of recycled polyester staple fiber, especially the hollow and low melting point plate of direct spinning. There is still a large space for future development.

two Due to the serious homogenization of products in the spinning sector and the entry of refining and chemical integration enterprises, the product differentiation rate of polyester staple fiber enterprises will continue to increase in the future. At present, the differentiation rate of polyester staple fiber in China is still low, and the added value of products is not high. In order to enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of enterprises, the proportion of spunlaced staple fiber, cationic fiber, colored polyester fiber, superfine denier staple fiber, high shrinkage polyester fiber, ultra short fiber and degradable polyester fiber will gradually increase in the future.

4、 What will happen to the industry in the near future

For polyester staple fiber, futures listing is helpful for manufacturers, traders and downstream enterprises to provide means and tools for price discovery and risk aversion for their production and operation. Efficient and standardized futures delivery system also helps to guide the industry to optimize the pricing model, improve product quality and warehousing logistics level, and promote industrial restructuring and upgrading. In addition, the most important thing is that the listing of futures may lead to the change of traditional trade mode.

For a long time, people in the industry have relatively single judgment on the market of polyester staple fiber. The trade and downstream users take goods mainly in the form of contract or spot transaction, usually unilateral transaction. The traditional trade model is very simple, many traders and buyers choose the most primitive and crude way - hoarding, gambling unilateral, waiting for the market to rise. However, with the increase of market influencing factors, it is more and more difficult for enterprises to make profits. The futures listing will also break this traditional trading mode. In the future, the risk aversion means of polyester staple fiber spot enterprises will be more flexible and diverse, and the modes of point price, price protection and basis trade will become the new fashion of polyester staple fiber industry.

With the approach of futures listing, more and more futures companies participate in polyester staple fiber trade. They take advantage of the opportunity by hedging with PTA futures. In the future development of the industry, manufacturers, traders and downstream enterprises and other industrial customers also need to use futures tools to hedge, so as to avoid the risk of price fluctuations and stabilize production and operation.

In addition, with the approach of futures listing, the pricing model of polyester staple fiber will change in the future, and basis trade may appear in the market as a new spot pricing model.

Generally speaking, with the approaching of polyester staple fiber futures listing, it is the general trend that industrial customers and futures are closely combined, and the means of avoiding risks of industrial customers will be more and more diversified. However, the basis of avoiding risks is still to grasp the market accurately.