In August, House Prices In 70 Large And Medium-Sized Cities Rose Slightly On A Month On Month Basis, Led By Second-Hand House Prices In Guangzhou And Chengdu

"The overall operation of the real estate market in 70 large and medium-sized cities is stable, and the prices are slightly higher," said Kong Peng, chief statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics when interpreting the price changes of commercial residential buildings in August.

On September 14, the National Bureau of statistics released statistics on the sales price changes of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in August 2020. The overall operation of the real estate market in 70 large and medium-sized cities is stable, and the price rises slightly. Among them, the prices of new houses in first tier, second tier and third tier cities rose by 0.6%, 0.6% and 1.0% respectively on a month on month basis, and the increase in first tier and second tier cities was 0.1 percentage point higher than that of the previous month.

In the context of the overall stable property market, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Shenzhen and other hot cities second-hand housing prices rise higher, the reasons for which should be concerned. Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, pointed out that since the second half of the year, about 10 cities in China have issued real estate regulation and control. Policies have been made from both sides of supply and demand to maintain the stable operation of the real estate market. In the near future, cities with fast rising house prices will not rule out the introduction of regulation and control policy.

Prices are generally stable

According to the National Bureau of statistics, among the 70 cities, the number of cities in which new house prices rose on a month on month basis was the same as that in July, with 59 cities, but the number of cities with house prices falling increased from 6 to 9. Second hand house prices rose month on month in 47 cities, an increase of 2 over the previous month.

Specifically, the four first tier cities maintained an upward trend. New housing rose 0.6% month on month, an increase of 0.1% over the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.6%, 0.6%, 0.9% and 0.5% respectively.

The prices of new houses in 31 second tier cities rose by 0.6% month on month, 0.1 percentage point higher than that of the previous month, while the prices of second-hand houses rose by 0.4% month on month, with a slight decrease.

The prices of new and second-hand houses in 35 third tier cities rose by 1.0% and 0.6% on a month on month basis, respectively, 0.2% and 0.1% higher than that of the previous month.

"The overall housing price increase in 70 cities is still in a reasonable range," Wang Ruochen, a researcher at the E-House Real Estate Research Institute, told the 21st century economic report that the rise of house prices in some cities is still at a high level, and the pressure of regulation and control is still great.

Specifically, Huizhou became the city with the fastest rise in new house prices on a month on month basis in August. This is believed to have something to do with Shenzhen's policy regulation. Analysts pointed out that with the high housing prices in Shenzhen and the upgrading of regulation, part of the house purchase demand is entering the neighboring Huizhou market.

In addition, Jinchuan, Tangshan and other cities followed by the rise in prices. Xu Xiaole believes that in the third and fourth tier cities, Yinchuan, Tangshan and Huizhou have been among the top 70 cities in terms of the month on month increase in the prices of new houses. This is mainly due to the improvement in the financing environment of real estate enterprises after the epidemic, the high enthusiasm for land acquisition, and the transmission of the primary market heat to the secondary level.

Wang Ruochen pointed out that on August 26, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development held a meeting on real estate in some cities, with the representatives of Shenyang, Changchun, Chengdu, Yinchuan, Tangshan, Changzhou and other cities attending the meeting. Judging from the data in August, housing prices in these cities have increased greatly and have great regulatory pressure. Among them, Shenyang, Yinchuan and Changzhou have issued relevant policies.

In fact, on the day of the release of the National Bureau of statistics, Chengdu, Dalian and other places have issued new regulatory policies. Among them, Chengdu proposes to increase the supply of residential land. In the future, the proportion of residential land in business land will not be less than 60%, and the area with tight supply and demand will not be less than 70%.

Structural rise of second-hand housing

In terms of second-hand housing, the price rise in hot cities deserves attention.

Among them, Guangzhou led 70 cities with an increase of 1.7%, which was the first in the second-hand house prices of the National Bureau of statistics for two consecutive months. In addition, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Wuxi, Ningbo, Xi'an and other first tier and second tier cities also ranked in the top 15 in terms of second-hand house price growth, and Chengdu's 1.2% increase was second only to Guangzhou.

However, from the perspective of supply and demand, the current second-hand housing market has a high supply and weak demand.

On the demand side, the data from Shell Research Institute show that the demand for second-hand housing has been released continuously from March to may, and then entered the platform period from June to August. In August, the actual volume of second-hand housing market in key cities decreased by about 7% month on month.

Data from E-House Research Institute also showed that in August, the second-hand housing transaction volume in Shenzhen, Chengdu and other hot cities rose and fell. In terms of second-hand housing, the area of second-hand housing decreased from 1.23 million square meters in Dongguan to 0.02 million square meters in Shenzhen from 1.23 million square meters in Shenzhen. In addition, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Xiamen, Dalian and other hot cities, trading volume also fell.

On the supply side, a large number of restricted houses have been listed since 2016, which has significantly increased the number of second-hand housing. According to coral data, a real estate big data sharing platform, in 2020, the number of second-hand houses in many cities will reach a record high. Taking Chongqing as an example, the number of second-hand houses listed has increased from more than 40000 units in early 2019 to nearly 160000 units in July 2020. Hangzhou's second-hand housing listing volume also rose to 121000 units from 65000 units at the beginning of last year.

Therefore, some views believe that, in addition to a few cities such as Shenzhen, the rise of second-hand house prices is mainly caused by the change of transaction structure.

Taking Guangzhou as an example, Li Yujia, senior economist of Guangdong housing policy research center, said that Guangzhou has been leading the second-hand housing growth, which does not mean that the whole Guangzhou market is hot. On the contrary, this is related to the high trading volume of second-hand housing in some regions. At present, Guangzhou, Yuexiu, Huangpu, Tianhe and other hot areas, due to the good public facilities and the concentration of high-quality education resources, the transaction of second-hand housing has rebounded and the price has risen, forming a virtuous circle. However, other peripheral areas of the city, such as Zengcheng, Huadu, Conghua and Nansha, have been the major suppliers of new stocks in the past few years. Now, the number of second-hand houses listed is large, and the transaction is relatively bleak.

Li Yujia pointed out that this led to a hot second-hand housing market in a small number of regions in Guangzhou, and most of the regions appeared to be trading sideways. If you want to make a deal, you must lengthen the cycle or reduce the price. Due to the limitation of transaction cycle, transaction cost and policy, plus the benefits of previous rounds of property market recovery, the owners are in high spirits. There are few transactions in the market, and the high-level horizontal market. Performance in the city's data, that is, driven by a few hot areas, the price of second-hand housing is still rising.

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