The Shock Wave Caused By A Survey Summary: The Fairness Of The Letter Of Concern Of Changchun Hi Tech Is Questioned. Can The High Growth Of "Maotai In Medicine" Be Sustained?

The shock wave caused by a survey summary continues.

On the evening of September 15, Changchun hi tech received a letter of concern from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, asking it to explain whether the market can directly infer the performance of the listed company in the corresponding period through the historical situation of the revenue and net profit of Jinsai pharmaceutical industry in the revenue and net profit of the listed company; in combination with the current shareholding and restriction on the sale of shares of Jinlei, it is required to explain whether there is a reduction in the sales volume of Jinlei based on the inquiry Whether the above statements are true.

Shenzhen stock exchange is particularly concerned about "whether Changchun hi tech has selectively and privately disclosed, disclosed or leaked unpublished information to specific shareholders, and whether there is any violation of the principle of fair information disclosure".

In the afternoon of the day, the market value of Maotai was RMB 167.9 billion. However, at the end of the 15th, its share price rebounded and closed at 383.36 yuan / share.

A survey summary of Jinsai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., a core subsidiary of Changchun Hi Tech Co., Ltd., or the main cause of its drop limit.

In this summary, Jin Lei, the founder of Jinsai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., who was investigated, said that "the third quarter was not good, and there were internal reasons for laxity. The year-on-year decline in July was the first time in history; the growth hormone target in five years was 20 billion, and the net sales next year was 25%", and he disclosed that "the tax should be 1 billion yuan, and the holding will be reduced by the end of the year".

In the morning of September 15, Changchun Hi Tech Co., Ltd. made a quick performance forecast of "fire fighting" with a year-on-year growth of 75% - 85% to a profit of 2.171 billion yuan - 2.295 billion yuan.

Changchun hi tech responded in the above performance forecast that "according to the relevant agreement of the restructuring plan, Jinlei's performance commitment in 2019 has been reached, and some of its shares will be qualified for reduction by the end of December 2020. However, the amount of reduction, the specific time of reduction and the way of reduction should comply with the regulatory rules such as "Prohibition of short-term trading" and "new regulations on reduction of large shareholders". At present, Jin Lei does not have the conditions to reduce its holdings, and the company has not received its report on the arrangement of reducing shares. "

Now, however, the exchange's letter of concern has thrown the company into a cloud of suspicion.

Down limit triggered by a survey summary

According to the public information, the business of Changchun hi tech mainly focuses on four subsidiaries, including Jinsai pharmaceutical, Baike biological and Huakang pharmaceutical, which are the "troika" in the pharmaceutical field, and the high-tech real estate based on real estate construction and development.

Among them, Jinsai pharmaceutical's products include growth hormone and recombinant human follicle stimulating hormone for injection, Baike biological products include nasal spray influenza vaccine and varicella vaccine, and Huakang pharmaceutical mainly produces and sells prescription drugs.

Take the semi annual report of 2020 as an example, the net profit of Jinsai pharmaceutical industry is 1.129 billion yuan, that of Baike bio chemical is 171 million yuan, that of Huakang pharmaceutical is 21 million yuan, and that of high-tech real estate is 104 million yuan.

On September 15, a pharmaceutical industry practitioner told the 21st century economic report that "among the subsidiaries of Changchun hi tech, Jinsai pharmaceutical has the highest market attention. It mainly does children's growth hormone, which has long-term and short-term effects. Many of the treatments for children with short stature are in cooperation with the foundation."

In the survey summary posted on the Internet, Jinsai pharmaceutical disclosed that "the year-on-year decline in July was the first in history", and put forward "the growth hormone target of 20 billion in five years, and the net sales of next year will be 25%". The most important thing is that Jin Lei, the founder of Jinsai pharmaceutical, mentioned that "the tax should be 1 billion yuan, and the holding will be reduced at the end of the year. After the reduction, it will still be a core shareholder in the future, and will devote himself to Jinsai pharmaceutical industry in the future On "and so on.

In this regard, some investors questioned on the interactive platform, "the group adjusted the target of next year's golden competition from 35% to 25%. How did this news be made and released? What is the company's news release platform? "

So, is this survey summary circulated on the street true?

On September 15, the 21st century economic report reporter called the Secretary Office of Changchun hi tech as an investor. The other party said that "we have not verified the survey summary of webpass, and we don't know how it was sent out."

"Yesterday, I was answering the phone calls from investors to talk about this issue. People at all levels have misunderstood the interpretation of the news. For example, the expectation of the company's industrial layout and marketing ability can not be interpreted as the decline of the company's overall performance because of the forecast of a certain region."

As for whether Changchun hi tech is involved in information disclosure, on September 15, Che Shengying, a Shanghai Gongyi law firm, told the 21st century economic reporter, "there is no final conclusion at present. It depends on the company's reply. If the situation is inconsistent or contradictory with the current disclosure of the company, or if the regulatory authorities think that the disclosure is problematic, further investigation can be carried out. "

On September 14, institutional investors voted with their feet, although the source of the survey minutes was not known.

According to the dragon and tiger list of Changchun hi tech on the 14th, Huatai Securities Tianjin huachangdao securities business department, Shenzhen Stock connect special purpose and Northeast Securities Shanghai Yongjia Road Securities Business Department sold the most, with 277 million yuan, 250 million yuan and 211 million yuan respectively. In addition, there were two institutional seats sold in the top five, selling 174 million yuan and 139 million yuan respectively.

It is worth mentioning that at the after hours investor exchange meeting on the same day, Jin Lei, the founder of Jinsai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., who was the protagonist of the survey, spoke. He elaborated the business forecast in the summary from the perspective of the operator. The prediction was relatively conservative, mainly to stimulate the staff's sense of crisis and let the employees guard against arrogance and impetuosity. The recent exchange is a small-scale meeting, which does not represent the board of directors and management of Jinsai pharmaceutical, nor does it represent the prospect of Changchun hi tech on the performance.

In addition, Jin Lei said the reduction had nothing to do with the development prospects and performance of Changchun hi tech, and the reduction was only to pay taxes.

According to the semi annual report in 2020, Jin Lei is currently the second largest shareholder of Changchun hi tech, with a shareholding ratio of 11.51%. The number of ordinary shares held is 46.58 million, including 46.52 million shares with limited sales conditions.

According to Oriental Wealth choice data, part of the 12.44 million shares held by Jin Lei will be lifted on December 14, 2020, with a market value of 4.769 billion yuan.

Since then, Changchun hi tech has also responded to investors' questions on the interactive platform, "the company has never released its performance outlook for the next few years. At present, the production, research and development and sales of the core subsidiaries of the company, including Jinsai, Baike, Huakang and other subsidiaries, are in normal operation. The management will strive to ensure the continuous growth of the company's main business."

Can Changchun hi tech continue to be a "white horse"?

Behind the large-scale limit may be the market's wait-and-see on the subsequent growth potential of "white horse stocks".

In the early part of this year, a reporter said that it was more reasonable for a certain high-tech securities company to withdraw its value in the first half of this year. It is more reasonable for the company to withdraw its value in the first half of this year.

And Changchun high tech is an organization heavy position stock.

According to Oriental Wealth choice data, as of this year's Zhongbao, 1159 institutions have held Changchun hi tech shares, and many star fund managers have heavy positions, including 41 fund products of GF Liu Gesong, Zhongxin Gelian, Penghua Chen Xuanmiao, e-fund Da Xiaonan, etc., with the proportion of Changchun hi tech accounting for more than 9.5% of the net value.

From the current high of RMB 15.516/month before 2020, the market value of Changchun hi tech stock is about RMB 15.516/month high in the next month.

The market is prepared for a rainy day. On December 14 and 30, 2020, Changchun hi tech will release a batch of restricted shares, involving 15.97 million shares and 4.77 million shares, with the market value of 6.123 billion yuan and 1.829 billion yuan respectively.

In contrast, another private equity person in Shanghai is more optimistic, "Changchun hi tech is indeed the leading company of growth hormone in China. After the restructuring of Jinsai pharmaceutical, the relevant parties also have performance commitments, and the degree of completion should not be a problem.".

As for the net profit growth of 75% - 85% in the first three quarters of this year, Changchun hi tech explained that it was mainly due to the income growth of holding backbone pharmaceutical enterprises; in November 2019, it completed the acquisition of 29.5% minority shareholders' equity of Jinsai pharmaceutical, and since November 2019, it has consolidated the financial statements of Jinsai pharmaceutical according to the shareholding ratio of 99.5%.

Jinlei and Lin dianhai, as the performance commitment parties, promise that Jinsai pharmaceutical will achieve non net profit deduction of no less than 1.558.1 billion yuan, 1.948.2 billion yuan and 2.323.3 billion yuan respectively in 2019, 2020 and 2021, and the accumulated net profit realized in the commitment period shall not be less than 5.826 billion yuan.

However, according to the survey summary of Jinsai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., a new batch of competitors will be listed one after another within 4-5 years, and the number of drug users will increase in the future. After the increase, the mentality of consumers will change, and they will be more sensitive to the price. After a product becomes bigger, it can not rely on high prices to form a barrier ". There is potential industry competition.

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