Hong Kong Stocks "Bull And Bear Dance Together" Risk Increases In The Fourth Quarter

In the last trading week of September, Hong Kong stocks are still dancing together. Driven by banks and the new economic plate, the Hang Seng Index stopped the decline in September and came out of a moderate rebound. However, the market is still worried. According to a survey, only 20% of fund managers are optimistic about the fourth quarter performance of Hong Kong stocks.

On September 28, the Hang Seng Index closed at 23503.66, up 268.24 points, or 1.15%, with full day trading volume of HK $93.343 billion. Since September, the Hang Seng Index has started to decline following the collapse of US technology stocks, and has dropped 1673 points or 6.65% so far this month.

"Bear" stocks remain depressed

According to the plate division, Hong Kong shares can be described as "bull and bear dance together". On the "bear" side, the long-term downturn of public utilities and real estate sector is still "weak". This plate originally gathered a group of high interest blue chips that were traditionally loved by local investors in Hong Kong.

Companies in the hands of many big families in Hong Kong, including power, gas and real estate companies, have been disappointing so far this year. China Power Holdings (2. HK), Hong Kong China Gas (3. HK), electric energy industry (6. HK), Changjiang infrastructure (1038. HK), Henderson real estate (12. HK), Sun Hung Kai Real Estate (16. HK), New World Development (17. HK) and Changshi group (1113. HK) all fell again throughout the day, with jiulongcang real estate (1997. HK) rising 1.3% and closing at HK $31 per share.

Li Chen, assistant professor of the China Research Center of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, told reporters from the southern finance and economics Omnimedia that due to the dual impact of social events and the epidemic situation, Hong Kong's economic prospects are not clear at present. The above factors have caused the downturn of the traditional Hong Kong stock market, while the relevant investors are "excessively pessimistic". "Hong Kong stocks can be regarded as a low value area in the world at present. Many stocks have a high dividend yield, but their PE and Pb values are very low. It is a good time for value oriented investors to enter the market," he said

However, "bear" stocks also have one-day made a good "star.". HSBC Holdings (5. HK), which saw its share price cut back during the year, rose 9.2% to close at HK $30.8 per share due to the increase of Ping An insurance. According to data from the Hong Kong stock exchange, Ping An insurance increased its holdings of 10.8 million shares of HSBC Holdings on September 23, with an average price of HK $28.2859 per share, involving a total of HK $305 million. Its shareholding increased from 7.95% to 8%, surpassing BlackRock's 7.14% stake, becoming the largest shareholder.

Bull stocks watch out for volatility and bubbles

On the "bull" side, Tencent (700. HK), Alibaba (9988. HK), Jingdong group (9618. HK), Xiaomi group (1810. HK) and meituan review (369. HK) rose by 0.5%, 2.1%, 2.76%, 2.43% and 2.16% respectively. However, the second new shares and the biomedical sector, which was hot this year, bucked the trend and plummeted. Oukangweishi biological (1477. HK) and kangxinuo biological (6185. HK) fell by 6.82% and 1.79% respectively. TEG Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. rose by 0.64% at the end of the day.

According to a media survey, according to a survey of 19 fund managers in Hong Kong, only four of them are optimistic about the fourth quarter performance of Hong Kong stocks, accounting for about 20%. However, as Hong Kong stocks have undergone a significant adjustment in September, only 6% of fund managers said they would reduce their positions in the fourth quarter, and 71% said they would maintain the current investment proportion in Hong Kong stocks. We should pay attention to the factors affecting the stock market, the season of the election, the sentiment of the fund managers and so on.

According to Huang Guoying, director of financial asset management, Hong Kong stocks are "bull and bear" at present, and industries should be carefully selected. The investors should avoid the influence of the traditional stocks, such as oil and oil, to avoid the influence of investment.

Schroeder said that after the rise this year, the valuations of shares in healthcare, e-commerce, online games, 5g equipment and electric vehicles have reached a high level, and there are also some signs of bubble in the global market. The company said market volatility will continue as the US presidential election approaches.

Morgan asset management pointed out that in the autumn and winter, the epidemic may break out again, and the political situation near the U.S. presidential election is full of political variables. Investors should be alert to the increase in market volatility at the end of the year and pay attention to the equity and debt balance of the portfolio.

Pan Zhenbang, managing director of Xingjian asset management, reminds investors to pay attention to seasonal factors. He said that when investors made profits in the first three quarters, facing short-term uncertainties, they would be less willing to venture into the market again.

Evergrande's stock and debt both "rebound from the Jedi"

Evergrande, which staged the "killing both stocks and debts" market on Friday, rebounded in succession on Monday. In addition to the fact that Evergrande announced repeatedly over the weekend to "brighten the family", many investment banks also said that they were optimistic about the performance of Evergrande in the later period.

On the 28th, Evergrande (3333. HK) and Evergrande motor (708. HK) went up 20.6% and 20.4% respectively, closing at HK $16.62 and HK $20.25 per share. Several investment banks, including JP Morgan Chase, CITIC Lyon, Deutsche Bank, Galaxy Lianchang securities, Huatai Securities, DBS Bank and other investment banks published reports optimistic about the stock price and bond price trend of Evergrande.

Regarding Evergrande's share price, CITIC Lyon said that the fluctuation of the share price provided a good buying opportunity for investors, and reiterated its buying rating of Evergrande with a target price of HK $23. According to the bank, Evergrande has already formulated relevant debt reduction plans, together with various equity financing of property management and automobile businesses, and believes that the company has a strong ability to deleverage, even better than market expectations.

The reporter inquired about the data of DM bond link and found that in terms of onshore bonds of Evergrande, 19 bonds issued in 2019 received 80.72 yuan and 75.34 yuan respectively on September 28, and 20 Hengda 01 issued in 2020 received 73 yuan. The yields of the above bonds are still as high as 45.9%, 27.68% and 36.6% respectively, with a total scale of 24.5 billion yuan. In terms of offshore bonds, 8.25%, 9.5% and 11.5% bonds due in 2022 now yield more than 24%.

In addition to a large number of investment banks whose market role is "seller", investors who "copy bottom" of Evergrande also obviously hope to show their positions to the market, so as to drive the market to increase trust in Evergrande. Zhongyu group (985. HK), which is engaged in financial investment business, announced that it had invested US $8.64 million in Evergrande bonds with a "bottom reading" slump on September 25. The company disclosed that the investment targets were 6.25% Evergrande notes due in 2021 and 8.9% Evergrande notes due in 2021, with face values of US $5 million respectively. However, due to the sharp drop in bond prices, the above bonds were collected with only US $4.29 million and US $4.35 million respectively.

"In view of the fact that the interest rate of China Evergrande notes is higher than that of Hong Kong dollar time deposits / US dollar time deposits provided by commercial banks of Hong Kong, and that the acquisition will bring higher and stable returns to the group, the directors consider the acquisition to be fair and reasonable and in the overall interests of the company and its shareholders," the company said

The performance of new shares continued to improve

Although the performance of Hong Kong listed stocks was generally poor during the year, investors frequently made good profits by "hitting the new".

Another biotech stock, zaiding Pharmaceutical (9688. HK), was listed on the 28th. It was once as high as 617.5 yuan per share in the session. It closed at 610 yuan per share, an increase of 8.54% compared with the issue price of 562 yuan per share. According to 150 shares per hand, the "new players" paid HK $84300 per hand and made a Book profit of HK $7200.

In addition, China Express announced the offering price of HK $218 per share, which will be officially listed for trading the next day (September 29). The net amount raised by China Express is about HK $9.675 billion, including 4.65 times of international placing subscription and 5.69 times of Hong Kong public offering subscription.

In addition, the prospectus of Jingdong health (9618. HK) was submitted to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 27. The media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that JD health will raise at least $3 billion and plans to raise shares as early as December. Jingdong health quoted third-party data as saying that in 2019, Jingdong health was the largest online medical and health platform and the largest online retail pharmacy in China by revenue. In 2019, the company's revenue is 10.84 billion yuan. (Editor: Xin Ling, if you have any questions or suggestions, please contact xinlingfly2007 @ 163. Com)

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