Strategy Of Fund A Shares In The Fourth Quarter: Public Offering And 10 Billion Private Placement

With the coming of the long holiday, the fund has no desire to fight.

On September 28, A-share shrinkage shock. The turnover of the two markets was only 540.3 billion yuan, compared with 569.4 billion yuan in the previous trading day, which has reached a new low in nearly four months for two consecutive trading days.

At the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.06%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.42%, and the gem index fell 0.75%.

9-21.9 last week. Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.56%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 3.25%, and the gem index fell 2.14%. Last week, the average daily turnover of a shares in the two cities was 0.67 trillion, down 10.66% from the previous week.

Before the festival, the earning effect of A-share was poor, and the risk preference decreased. However, although a shares fell, but some institutions are in the "bottom" position. And in the layout of the fourth quarter before the festival, fund managers have differences.

Public offering and 10 billion private placement

Is this wave of A-share adjustment close to the "end" before the festival and will it reverse after the festival? The view on this issue has become the starting point of fund layout.

According to the statistics from Haomai fund, last week (9.21-9.25), the overall position of partial equity funds was increased by 1.54% against the market, and the position reached 68.51%.

The top three industries with fund allocation proportion are medicine, food and beverage and light industry manufacturing, with allocation positions of 5.40%, 5.35% and 4.73% respectively; the three industries with the highest fund allocation proportion are non bank finance, coal and banking, with allocation positions of 0.42%, 0.54% and 0.62% respectively.

In terms of industry allocation, commercial retail, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and non bank finance were increased by public funds by 1.11%, 0.98% and 0.66% respectively; the funds mainly reduced their positions in petroleum and petrochemical, light industry manufacturing and textile and clothing industries, with the reduction rates of 0.59%, 0.52% and 0.48% respectively.

However, the latest data of private placement position lags behind by a week. According to the data from private placement network portfolio masters, last week (9.14-9.18), the overall position of private equity declined slightly, while the 10 billion private placement increased its position significantly against the trend.

As of September 18, the overall position index of private placement was 77.53%, down 0.07% month on month, but it exceeded 70% for 28 consecutive weeks.

It is worth mentioning that the 10 billion private placement index was 80.44%, with a significant increase of 1.06 percentage points month on month. Among them, 60.28% of the 10 billion private placement positions exceeded 80%, and only 4.5% of the 10 billion private placement positions were less than 50%.

In this regard, Zhao Lisong, chairman of shangdegu investment, analyzed that in the near future, the market was still more worried about the possible adverse news in the market during the National Day holiday, so the market funds had some hedging operations and the market had a certain decline.

"Although down, but through the position statistics, we are still adding positions, so the market generally believes that the current position is a shock market, so we will not worry about too much decline." Zhao Lisong said.

"The main reason is that the US stock market has experienced a round of adjustment recently, and A-share investors are worried that the US stock market will fall again during the long holiday. In addition, as the US general election approaches, uncertainties in Sino US relations are increasing. More negative factors lead to investors more willing to hold currency for the festival. " Banyan investment research director Li Shixian said.

Differences in layout

Looking ahead, fund managers can be divided into two groups for the fourth quarter of A-share market: one is to increase the position when the adjustment is near the end and rebound is imminent; the other is to be cautious in holding currency and wait-and-see, reduce or adjust positions in case of turbulence.

RONGTONG fund manager Liu Ankun believes that the market will continue to be weak shocks before the festival.

Liu Ankun analyzed that since last week, the number of newly diagnosed cases in Europe has exceeded the highest value of the first wave of epidemic, the infection rate has reached a new high, and there are also non imported cases in China, which leads to the market's second worry about the new epidemic situation. On the domestic side, the experience of epidemic prevention and control is rich, and the probability of wide-scale spread of the epidemic is low, so the sustained recovery of overall social activities and economic momentum is still a high probability event.

"When the related assets are dragged back by sentiment, allocation can be increased, and the main direction is still pro cyclical assets." Liu Ankun said.

Looking forward to the future, Liu Ankun said that in the medium term, he was still optimistic about the structural opportunities of Pro cyclical, which could be roughly divided into equipment manufacturing (such as industrial control, automobile and household appliances), undervalued bancassurance and chemical industry, and hotel aviation benefiting from the recovery of the epidemic (the potential catalyst is the research and development of epidemic Miao Shun Li). At the same time, we may start to pay attention to the three quarterly reports of listed companies. The market may react in advance to the industries with good performance in the three quarters, such as construction machinery, heavy trucks, automobile and parts, shipping, midstream equipment and other sectors. In addition to being in the pro cycle, the performance of these industries is also improving.

Li Jiacun, the fund manager of China Merchants pharmaceutical health industry, believes that the pharmaceutical sector has made a significant correction since July, and the downward space is limited. According to the current growth of profits and the position of stock price, it is expected that the valuation of the pharmaceutical and biological sector will be at a low level of 1 / 4 in history by the end of 2021. Under the background of epidemic spread, the pharmaceutical sector is one of the sectors with the strongest performance growth certainty and has comparative advantages.

"It is expected that the market will be shaken before the festival and it will not play. After that, there should be a rebound. For the next rebound, we should pay attention to the performance of the second half of the year, and for technology stocks, the adjustment in place, appropriate can participate Zhao Lisong said.

"We are still optimistic about the market in the fourth quarter," Li said. The epidemic crisis is an industry reshuffle, and many high-quality companies that have bucked the trend to expand their business have seen substantial growth in their performance. It is suggested to focus on the companies with good performance expected in the third and fourth quarters. "

Xia Fengfeng, the future star fund manager of private placement paipaipaipai.com, believes that, at present, the market is still in a volatile range (Shanghai Stock Exchange 3000-3300 points), and the current adjustment is based on expectations rather than logic. As long as the central bank and fiscal monetary policy is not fully withdrawn, as long as there are a large number of undervalued weighted stocks, it is unlikely to return to the bear market. In operation, we can be prepared to take in bargains.

According to Deng Yuxiang, director of Equity Investment Department of Furong fund, due to national day factors, the market is worried about the risks of Sino US relations during the holidays and the second outbreak of overseas epidemic, and it is expected that the overall market sentiment will tend to be weak. Structurally, although there are worries about the epidemic situation and the game between China and the United States, domestic consumption, especially during the National Day period, such as domestic tourism, National Day film box office and other consumption data are worth looking forward to. In the medium and long term, the industry focuses on medicine, science and technology, military industry and low value cycle leaders.

On the contrary, some fund managers believe that there are many uncertain factors before the festival, so they have done the operation of adjusting positions, waiting and reducing positions accordingly.

A large fund investment director said that it is better to adjust the market now, but the style is more optimistic about value stocks, growth stocks may need to be adjusted, and it is still optimistic for the fourth quarter, and the position change is not too big after adjusting the position style before the festival.

Another large fund technology fund manager pointed out that "the market will continue to fluctuate, waiting for uncertainty to be eliminated, and it is not likely to deliberately adjust positions due to long holidays."

A private fund manager believes that "in the short term, the double festival period is longer, there are more uncertainties in the external market, and ant group will offer shares after the festival, so we suggest reducing the position to avoid risks, which may be a better strategy."

Li Kejie, general manager of Quanhong private equity fund, said: "the adjustment should not be finished, whether in time or space, it is not enough. The fourth quarter is mostly adjusted, so the rebound is to reduce positions, and then add positions when it falls (Editor: Zhu Yimin)

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