A-Share Rises Sharply After The Festival And Institutional Position Adjustment: Cycle, Technology And Large Consumption Become The Consensus Of Investment Trend

Institutions generally believe that the next market will be a structural market, and the investment direction suggestions given by the institutions are generally similar, focusing on Pro cyclical, technology, big consumption and other directions.

For A-share market after the festival, the organization guessed the beginning, but could not guess that the market would be so fierce.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.64% in volume on October 12, following a 1.68% rise on Friday. In addition, Shenzhen Composite Index rose 3.15%, gem index rose 3.91%. The transaction volume of the two cities reached 971.4 billion yuan, a new high since September 10.

The net purchase of northbound funds was 13.51 billion yuan in the whole day and nearly 25 billion yuan in the two trading days after the festival, reversing the net selling trend of the previous eight consecutive trading days.

On the same day, a shares all rose, theme stocks broke out, semiconductor, military, liquor led the rise in the theme industry.

After a number of reporters interviewed A-share managers for two consecutive days, they found that the operation of the fund was very different.

What should we do now?

Secretly adjust the warehouse

Two days after the festival, the operation of fund managers is very different. On the one hand, the reporter interviews found that some institutions are in the operation of adding or full positions.

Zhang Kexing, the general manager of the company, said that most of the company's total assets were added to the company's basic position before December. In terms of Hong Kong's position, we have only added one small share to the market

"In terms of industry distribution, the first largest industry is technology stocks dominated by Internet, and the main layout direction is Hong Kong stock market. There are also US stocks made through income swap, including stocks like Alibaba, which account for more than half of the total; our second largest industry is liquor stocks in food and beverage, especially high-end liquor. We are most optimistic about the Internet and liquor industries. In addition, we have some pharmaceutical leading stocks, education stocks and property services related stocks, but they account for a relatively low proportion. " Zhang Kexing said.

Zhang Kexing believes that from the perspective of the trend, the next upward space of a shares does not exclude reaching the previous 3500 point high, and some stocks will also create a new high, which is in a market with structural differentiation of consumption and technology stocks. At the same time, some cyclical stocks may have periodic rising prices.

I've been buying more shares in the stock market. Next is the bull market. I suggest you be patient. "

Zhao Lisong, chairman of shangdegu investment, is also adding positions. "In recent two days, under the influence of several positive and negative effects, the market has made a very pleasant trend. We have added some positions before the national day, but the positions are not particularly heavy. 50% of the positions will be increased to 60% - 70% of the positions after the festival

"In the short term, we still have a balanced allocation, mainly cyclical, blue chip and growth stocks, because performance is an important direction to consider when it comes to the end of the year." Zhao Lisong said.

On the other hand, some investment institutions told reporters that their positions remained basically unchanged or even reduced.

Zhuang Hongdong, chairman of the cheese fund, said, "there was no significant change in our positions before and after the national day. In the second quarter of this year, we have basically completed the layout of position adjustment, and slightly increased the position of real estate in the early third quarter. "

"We haven't made position timing, and we will stick to it in the future. If the short-term market rises by a large margin, we will adjust the position portfolio internally according to the valuation of the underlying, and gradually reduce the subject with higher valuation. At the same time, some more cost-effective, greater margin of safety of the subject Zhuang Hongdong said.

"In the past two trading days, there has been a big rise in the market, and our position stocks also have a certain increase, but the valuation is still in a reasonable range. Although compared with the growth of pharmaceutical, new energy and other sectors, the short-term performance of these sectors is slightly behind. But we think that it is a more rational choice not to blindly pursue high Zhuang Hongdong said.

Zhuang Hongdong said that in the fourth quarter and next year, the pro cyclical industries that are relatively optimistic about the performance and are expected to improve significantly are mainly leading companies in household appliances, real estate, insurance, cement and other industries.

Li Kejie, general manager of Quanhong private equity fund, said that he reduced his position after the festival. "We operate according to the plan: we will reduce the position when the price rises too fast."

Li Kejie's reason for reducing his position is that funds in the fourth quarter will face the problem of "withdrawing", so the rise is the opportunity to reduce the position.

"Wait until it falls down and make up for next year." Li Kejie said that in the medium and long term, China's capital market will usher in great development, so he is optimistic about the securities industry.

In fact, the latest data shows that both public offering and private placement are high position operations.

Haomai fund's position calculation shows that the position of public offering partial stock fund is generally at a historical high level. On October 11, 2020, 67.83% of the partial equity fund positions were publicly raised. Among them, 76.87% were standard fund and 18% were stock fund.

From the perspective of private placement, the average position of subjective long strategic private equity fund is 82.59%, which is the highest in recent three years.

Private fund managers are also optimistic about the future. In October 2020, the A-share confidence index of Rongzhi China hedge fund managers was 124.86, up 6.55% month on month compared with September. It reached a new high in the year, and was second only to April 2019 in recent three years.

Consensus on institutional investment trend

The basic reason for the success of the opening ceremony was the same.

Zhang Xiaoquan, research director of Ping An fund, believes that three factors contributed to the success of A-share market after the National Day Golden Week: first, supply and demand are booming, and domestic fundamentals are recovering strongly; second, external pressure is easing, and foreign capital flows into a shares again; third, near the fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the CPC, domestic policies are constantly warm, boosting market sentiment, especially the State Council's "about further development" issued by the State Council Suggestions on improving the quality of listed companies, as well as the new energy vehicle industry planning, Shenzhen pilot demonstration zone documents, etc. were successively released.

On the future trend, there are some differences of views on public offering, some are more optimistic, some are more cautious. However, institutions generally believe that the next market will be a structural market, and the investment direction suggestions given by the institutions are generally similar, focusing on Pro cyclical, technology, large consumption and other directions.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said that at present, the A-share market has completed its bottom and entered the stage of substantial rebound. The fourth quarter market is expected to exceed investors' expectations, and the market's profit-making effect is gradually enhanced.

"The future bull market is a differentiated bull market, and the good stocks represented by bailongma shares will be sought after by all kinds of funds, so as to keep going out of the bull market trend." Yang Delong said.

Ping An Fund believes that the A-share market in the long-term shocks, upward trend unchanged. In terms of industry configuration, it is suggested that in the short term, attention should be paid to the pro cyclical optional consumer industries (such as catering, tourism, household appliances, automobiles, etc.) and cyclical growth industries (such as machinery and chemical industry); in the long term, we should pay attention to the large consumption industries that benefit from the "double cycle", and the domestic demand is continuously restored and the structure is constantly upgraded, and the large-scale science and technology industry supported by the national strategy should be carefully selected Good, reasonable valuation of individual stocks.

Haifutong Fund believes that there may be a rebound in October. But generally speaking, the overall attitude of the equity market in the fourth quarter is neutral, and we are more optimistic about the oversold rebound of high-quality growth stocks and the valuation repair market of Pro cyclical plate. However, in the long run, the individual stocks of the subdivided industries with the advantages of performance certainty and prosperity in the fields of large consumption, scientific and technological growth and intelligent manufacturing are still the favorite in the market spotlight.

Xia Fengfeng, the future star fund manager of private placement network, believes that in the case of uncertain US election and complicated and changeable external political environment, it is likely that the market will continue to maintain a volatile trend in the short term.

For the follow-up study and judgment of the general trend, China Merchants Fund believes that the U.S. election in the next month is still the most important variable, and can focus on A-share profit driven and reasonable valuation varieties.

"In the next stage, we will continue to pay attention to the U.S. general election, the development of new coronavirus vaccine and the implementation of the 14th five year plan." China Merchants Fund said that it will continue to pay attention to the new energy related targets with the industry booming continuously, the undervalued value style and some core asset targets that have been adjusted in place and benefited from the return of overseas funds.

Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund believes that looking forward to the future, the recent domestic economic recovery is orderly, while the overseas epidemic situation is still not under control, and some excellent domestic enterprises are expected to increase their global market share. During the national day, the consumer demand of residents still shows a recovery trend. At the same time, the demand for new energy vehicles and photovoltaic at home and abroad is growing rapidly at the same time. The new energy industry has become a highly prosperous industry not affected by the Sino US trade war. The valuation of relevant sectors and individual stocks may be greatly improved.

Liu Ankun, manager of the reverse Strategy Fund of RONGTONG fund, believes that after the double festival, the sentiment of A-share market will recover. In the medium term, the market may still present structural market, so we can focus on the preparation of the third quarter report of listed companies and the "14th five year plan".

Liu Ankun said that we might as well increase the allocation of Pro cyclical assets to balance the portfolio. Procyclical opportunities can be roughly divided into equipment manufacturing categories that are booming, such as industrial control and automobile, total volume and undervalued bancassurance and chemical industry, which benefit from the upcoming launch of the new crown vaccine Hotel aviation. At the same time, investors can start to pay attention to industries with good performance in the three quarters, such as construction machinery, heavy trucks, automobile and parts, shipping, midstream equipment, light industry and other sectors.

Deng Yuxiang, director of Equity Investment Department of Furong fund, said: looking forward to October, performance and policies will become the two main lines of stock selection. On the one hand, the third quarter report is coming, and it is expected that the prosperity of consumption, technology and other sectors will continue; on the other hand, the "14th five year plan" predicts that wind power photovoltaic industry, the third generation semiconductor and other sectors will benefit. In the medium and long term, the industry still maintains the judgment of upward shocks. The industry focuses on medicine, science and technology, military industry and cycle leaders with undervalued value.

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