Enterprises Should Bear Raw Materials' Soaring Or Growing Chicken Feathers

This year's "11 Golden Week" let many authorities in the cotton textile industry "startled the chin.". The price of cotton yarn rose sharply this week. As of October 15, cy c32s pure cotton yarn reported a revenue of 21000 yuan / ton, a sharp increase of 2400 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of pure cotton yarn almost "overnight" was pulled back to the stage of rush shipment in the early stage of the epidemic. People can't help but sigh: history is always surprisingly similar.

This year's National Day holiday is a little longer than in previous years, and this year's National Day is also the stage when a large number of seed cotton purchases are started. In the early stage, seed cotton was not purchased and processed in large quantities, and the quotation in the market was not stable; however, during the period of the 11th National Congress, the seed cotton purchase price rose all the way, which led to the rise of theoretical processing cost of lint. As of October 15, the cc3128b cotton index closed at 14306 yuan / ton, breaking through the 104 mark, rising 1368 yuan / ton year-on-year, reaching a new high this year. The surplus cotton processing capacity and insufficient cotton resources in Xinjiang this year have led many cotton farmers to be reluctant to sell seed cotton. However, in order to ensure the purchase volume this year, the cotton ginning plant has to raise the price to purchase. Therefore, although the cotton yarn sales have been booming recently, the textile enterprises still make rational replenishment, and there is no "index level" in the inventory of cotton raw materials ”Growth.

However, the downstream cotton yarn trading has taken off this week. As of October 15, China's yarn inventory index closed at 7.6 days, down 2 / 3 from 21.5 days last week, a new low in nearly three years. From the theoretical profit and loss point of view, if the cotton raw materials before the festival are used, the textile enterprises have made a lot of profits this week. Since the theoretical profit and loss turned negative in the middle of this year, the cotton yarn has been in a loss state. At the end of September before the festival, the loss per ton was more than 1300 yuan, but this week it suddenly turned into a positive profit of more than 1000 yuan. However, the increase of cotton yarn price is still obviously lagging behind that of cotton. If spinning yarn is purchased at current cotton price, textile enterprises are still in a loss state. In fact, the raw materials of the whole industrial chain are forced to follow the upward trend of downstream terminals. Textile enterprises adjust the quotation three times a day, even temporarily do not receive orders, do not quote the phenomenon everywhere. The main reason is that the price of cotton yarn is expected to rise again; secondly, the price of lint in the upstream has also increased greatly after the festival. Most cotton spinning factories are willing to sell cotton yarn at a loss as before the festival, so they must take advantage of this opportunity to realize profits. Therefore, not quoting is not not not selling, but waiting for the opportunity to sell.

As of October 15, CG C32 of cotton grey fabric closed at 4.74 yuan / m, up 7% from last week. After the cotton yarn price rose in October, textile factory orders did not continue to improve. Therefore, at present, textile mills are in the environment of low profit from order production and spot production, and they are worried that cotton yarn will be bought at a high level. Some textile mills have already reported that the price assessment based on the latest cost is not acceptable to customers, so the demand is indirectly suppressed.

As for imported yarn, as of October 15, FCY index c32s closed at 21310 yuan / ton, up 2654 yuan / ton from last week. The price difference between inside and outside yarn is narrowed, but it is still hanging upside down. From the perspective of exchange rate, the RMB exchange selling price of BOC in September showed a process of appreciation first, then devaluation, and then appreciation again, especially after the national day. The appreciation of RMB makes the settlement cost of imported yarn decrease and the port inventory decreases obviously. However, in recent days, the exchange rate has been stable, and the domestic and foreign prices of China's major cotton yarn importing countries such as Pakistan, Vietnam and India continue to climb. In addition, the impact of the second wave of epidemic in the Middle East will reduce the supply and continue to raise the import yarn price. Whether the imported yarn in the future market can continue the current hot level will be uncertain.

Looking at the whole industry chain, most foreign brands and retailers do not accept the increase in the quotation of textile and clothing enterprises and foreign trade companies. The rise of raw materials and gauze is difficult to transfer to the terminal order, and the export-oriented enterprises have a relatively limited bearing capacity. Therefore, they either "abandon the order" or digest the rising costs of cotton and cotton yarn alone. No matter which choice they make, the production enterprises are very painful In August / September, due to the sharp rise in the prices of cotton and cotton gauze, the profits of the Thanksgiving and Christmas orders and the "double 11" domestic sales list received in Europe, America and ASEAN markets in August and September have been significantly reduced or even lost. Textile and clothing enterprises have been in a lot of trouble in executing contracts, negotiating with purchasers to terminate contracts and breaking contracts. As for the "violent" rise in the prices of cotton and cotton yarn, the market situation that has just picked up and the export has recovered intermittently will be severely damaged, thus accelerating the transfer of orders from Europe, the United States and the Middle East to Vietnam, Indonesia, India and Pakistan. On the other hand, according to the Wall Street Journal, as of October 12 local time, countries including the 27 countries of the European Union and the United Kingdom had an average of more than 78000 new cases per day in seven days, with an average of 152 new cases per million residents. Over the same period of time, an average of 49000 new cases were added every day in the United States, with an average of 150 cases per million residents. This is the first time since the spring of this year that the new outbreak has exceeded the average in the United States. The soaring raw material end and the predictable demand cliff of the terminal will inevitably leave "chicken feather" at the end of the current "seedling feeding" industrial market. At that time, the "mess" left by the industrial chain enterprises still needs to be cleaned up.