Post Market Views Of 12 Major Securities Companies In The Second Half Of October: Focus On Pro Cyclical, Technology, Big Consumption And Finance

In the second half of October, from the perspective of the 12 major securities companies on the aftermarket, most securities companies thought that the next step was Structural market, the theme focuses on the third quarter report and the 14th five year plan, and focuses on Pro cyclical, science and technology, large consumption, finance and other fields. The recommendation is mainly concentrated in two industries: photovoltaic and new energy vehicles.

Anxin Securities: steady and steady

According to Anxin securities, the current market has returned to the pattern of upward volatility as scheduled: at the current stage, the earnings expectation of A-share enterprises will continue to be revised, the liquidity expectation will be stabilized, the Fifth Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the CPC and the draft of the "14th five year plan" are expected to boost the market risk preference, and the increase in the probability of being elected in the US election is also conducive to the expected stability of Sino US relations, and the RMB exchange rate will maintain a strong value It should be noted that the second outbreak of the epidemic in Europe and the United States in autumn and winter has cast a shadow on the global economic recovery. In the future, we also need to pay attention to the progress of vaccines.

Current stage Focus on the pro cyclical growth direction benefiting from economic recovery and the "14th five year plan" policy 。

Focus on: Photovoltaic, automobile (including new energy vehicles), electronics, military industry, liquor, household appliances, banking, insurance, etc 。

Focus on: V. cross border E-commerce Etc.

CITIC Securities: internal and external repair, slow rise continued

CITIC Securities believes that the more than expected improvement of domestic fundamentals will continuously raise the market bottom line; the trend of the US election and the recovery of US stocks is becoming increasingly clear; IPO and additional issuance and reduction of holdings have limited market capital flow, and will not change the state of net inflow of domestic and foreign funds. It is expected that the macro data of a shares will continue to rise in the medium term of this month and will continue to be released.

In terms of configuration, It is suggested that we should continue to pay attention to the procyclical plate and the technology leader The former includes those benefiting from the global economic recovery and the weak dollar Nonferrous Metals and chemical industry And the part that benefits from the recovery of domestic consumption Optional consumer sector The latter suggests that the focus should be on New energy vehicles and consumer electronics 。

In addition, we can also pay attention to the varieties with relatively insufficient market cognition in the theme of the 14th five year plan, including those related to industrial policies Military electronics, information security, semiconductor and optical modules Population policy related Mother infant plate 。

Societe Generale Securities: focus on the bright spot of the third quarter report

Yee Hing Securities said that the performance forecast of the third quarter report was very good, the cyclical industry turned positive, the growth continued to improve, the construction of Shenzhen demonstration zone, Chengdu Chongqing double city economic circle, the upcoming "14th five year plan" and other policies were frequent, which was conducive to improving the market structural opportunity highlights and sentiment.

The upward trend of the "14th five year plan" and the third quarter report is an opportunity worthy of investors' attention. In the medium and long term, the good trend of A-share and China's assets has not changed. The layout of shocks, the consolidation of long-term bulls, the central uplift, the trend has not changed, and the era of cherishing rights and interests.

Suggestions:

1）? We should grasp the direction of benefiting from the main policies of the 14th five year plan, such as new energy (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles), military industry, semiconductor, etc.

2） Periodic manufacturing, inventory replenishment and economic recovery. Along with the economic shift from "deflation" to "recovery" of fundamentals, some industries have entered the replenishment cycle, especially the middle reaches of raw materials and industrial products at the bottom of the inventory cycle The middle reaches of manufacturing industries such as automobile, papermaking, machinery, chemical industry, building materials, nonferrous metals, etc 。

Western securities: U.S. election approaching, focus on deterministic investment opportunities

Western Securities pointed out that in terms of performance since October, A shares > US stocks > copper and other investment commodities > precious metals > bond market > crude oil 。 Western Securities believes that the impact of the epidemic in Europe and the United States on the market may be relatively limited, and the rate will be less than the impact of the epidemic in March, and will not interrupt the process of global economic recovery. Market trading is still focused on the new round of US stimulus policy and the uncertainty brought about by the US election, and it is expected that the short-term market risk will be increased.

In terms of a shares, thanks to the strong domestic economic recovery momentum and export exceeding expectations, it is expected that the RMB will continue to be strong, and the inflow of overseas funds is driven by the 14th five year plan, and the certainty of a shares is still high.

Although the A shares may be driven by overseas risk assets in the short term and have a callback risk, it also brings a better layout opportunity in the fourth quarter. Therefore, we should continue to be optimistic about the gradual improvement of performance with the recovery of the economy Pro cyclical sectors such as banking, insurance and optional consumption , and Benefit from new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, cloud computing and domestic substitution with clear growth space in the 14th five year plan Related sectors.

Haitong Securities: bull market is still in a two wheel drive period

Haitong Securities believes that the overall performance of the market after the National Day Festival is good, and the market volume has been enlarged compared with that before the festival. At present, from the macro and micro liquidity point of view, the capital is still abundant, and the fundamentals are also rising steadily. This bull market is in the three wave rising stage driven by both fundamentals and funds, and continues to be optimistic about the market in the fourth quarter.

① According to the evolution of capital and fundamentals, the bull market can be divided into incubation period, outbreak period and bubble period, Now it is in the outbreak period, that is, the bull market driven by two wheels of capital and fundamentals has risen.

② The growth enterprise market (GEM) entered three waves ahead of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, which was due to the impact of the epidemic situation on the profit rhythm of various sectors. The dominance of industries in Q3 early cycle indicates that economic recovery is on the way.

③ In the periodic rebalancing of the market structure, the financial real estate in the medium and short-term post cycle is better, Science and technology is the main line of transformation and upgrading in the medium and long term.

Tianfeng Securities: what information does the third quarter report forecast of the science and technology innovation board have?

Tianfeng Securities pointed out that according to the current performance forecast of the third quarter report issued by the science and technology innovation board, the disclosure rate of electrical equipment, medical biology and electronics is higher and the growth rate of performance is higher.

From the perspective of Shenwan secondary industry, medical devices, general machinery, semiconductors and power supply equipment performed well.

After the implementation of the interim report, the fund has begun to layout the high growth target in the third quarter, and the absolute return and excess return corresponding to the high growth target are relatively significant.

More attention should be paid to the semiconductor power supply and medical equipment.

GF Securities: what signals need to be tracked to break the "green yellow gap"?

GF Securities believes that although the global "Biden trading" has eased the "green and yellow" slightly since October, the core contradiction of a shares remains unchanged. It is still that "the higher valuation level makes the market more sensitive to the discount rate, while the profit driven linkage is not connected.". In this context, the market continues to deepen along the "valuation dimension reduction".

What signals need to be observed in the current "green and yellow" phase?

First of all, observing changes in financial conditions is still the core contradiction.

Second, it is expected that breaking the "green and yellow" situation needs to be repaired with stronger expectations, tracking vaccine progress and the U.S. election.

Third, can tracking the earnings expansion of a shares outweigh the expectation of valuation convergence?

"Value reduction" has spread from Midstream manufacturing to downstream optional consumption / service.

The global stock market has improved slightly, but the core contradiction of marginal changes in financial conditions remains unchanged. Follow the progress of vaccines, the U.S. general election, and the direction of earnings recovery in the three quarterly reports of a shares. The market continued to deduce along the "valuation dimensionality reduction", from the midstream manufacturing continued to sink to the optional consumption of repair and speed-up

1. Since Q3, the economic recovery has been accelerated Optional consumption / service (automobile, leisure service, home appliance) ；

2. Demand improvement is the first to start with capacity / inventory cycle Manufacturing (general machinery, chemicals, e.g. plastics / rubber) ；

three Technology and high end manufacturing internal circulation (new energy, apple chain consumer electronics) 。

Theme investment Pay attention to the reform of state owned enterprises 。

Ping An Securities: which allocation signals are released by the stock bond yield ratio?

Ping An Securities believes that, combined with the trend of historical funds, institutional funds (especially insurance funds representing medium and long-term funds) often lead Stock debt The distribution of income ratio index means that the financing balance of individual investors' leverage funds often lags behind the indicators and enters the market. Under the background of incremental entry of foreign funds into the market, foreign funds present synchronous characteristics.

At present, the return ratio of stock to debt is relatively low in the historical quantile, but it does not fall into the bottom extreme space The stock market will remain relatively active in the short term, but the yield in the medium term may be relatively convergent, and the overall expected yield is still greater than the allocation signal of the bond market 。

From the perspective of macroeconomic fundamentals, domestic monetary policy is gradually returning to normal. Under this influence, the logic of equity market turns from valuation side to profit side, and the main line of the market is profit. Compared with the current five-year period, the yield is slightly lower than the current five-year level of 10.2%, which is slightly lower than the current five-year level of 10.2%.

China Merchants Securities: what does it mean for the most difficult industry to rise?

China Merchants Securities pointed out that last week, the "rare" financial sector led the rise, and the discussion on finance and style has once again become the focus of market attention. Into the fourth quarter, the style may further shift to the undervalued Pro cyclical plate.

In September, social financing exceeded expectations again, and financing growth of residents, government and enterprises all rebounded significantly, and continued to strengthen economic recovery expectations. After the US general election in early November, the global capital market is warming up for a new round of US fiscal stimulus policy, which may trigger a new round of global risk on. As the logic of economic recovery continues to strengthen, the recent discussion of Finance and style has become the focus of market attention. Historically, the style differentiation in the fourth quarter is significantly stronger than that in the first three quarters. Low valuation, value and overall market style slightly prevailed. Investors will adjust their style by comprehensively considering economic and monetary policies. The combination of economic and monetary policies in the fourth quarter of this year is similar to that in 2006, 2016 and 2012, Financial, cyclical, alternative consumption and other pro business cycle related undervalued sectors may be relatively dominant.

In the medium term, A-share is in the two-and-a-half-year upward cycle since January 2019, and the market will gradually deduce the logic of "from liquidity driven to economic fundamentals driven". Looking forward to the second half of the year to the first quarter of next year, the performance of Pro cyclical fields will improve to varying degrees. The cost performance ratio of valuation will become an important factor in market consideration again.

Pacific Securities: periodic rebound, stability can lead to far

Pacific Securities believes that, There is a certain rebound demand for short-term A shares On the one hand, the previous market worries about the second epidemic situation and overseas risks such as China and the United States have eased, and the market has quickly digested short-term disturbance factors; on the other hand, due to the "tight balance" of funds before the festival, the activity of A-share market is relatively low, and the cashing income funds in the early stage after the festival are faced with the need to re allocate the return of RMB, which is conducive to the return of foreign capital to a shares. But for now, however, The short-term space should not be too optimistic, and the follow-up is more structural opportunities. In the medium and long term, we can still be relatively optimistic, but we need to be stable in order to achieve long-term development.

Configuration suggestion: under the background of market sentiment repair, the core line will focus on Economic recovery (replenishment of inventory) + policy Catalysis (the 14th five year plan). It is suggested that attention should be paid to the pro cyclical plate and the style should be relatively balanced.

1) Undervalued but with room for continuous improvement: Banking and insurance;

2) Low value and good marginal demand: chemical industry, coal, natural gas, nonferrous metals, machinery, real estate;

3) "Technology + manufacturing internal cycle": photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, 5g infrastructure, cloud computing;

4) "Internal circulation of consumption": automobile, consumer electronics, household appliances, home furnishings, film and television theaters in consumption can be selected.

Guosheng Securities: "the 14th five year plan" is the main stage

Guosheng securities will continue to be bullish on the future market, and the "14th five year plan" will be a phased main line.

1. The external risks are gradually digested.

2. At the same time, the domestic policy will be favorable, and the "14th five year plan" will become the main line of the stage.

In terms of investment, we should pay attention to the investment opportunities related to the 14th five year plan

Pay attention to those with high expectations in the 14th five year plan Semiconductor, electric vehicle, wind power, etc.

In the medium and long term, technology + consumption is still the main line of the market.

Prosperity angle: attention New energy vehicles, photovoltaic, semiconductor, consumer electronics, games, gold.

CICC: policy has strength, market has space

Although the market is worried that the policy may be gradually tightened, CICC believes that the policy is returning to normalization rather than substantial tightening. At present, the recovery trend is still relatively certain, and there is still room for the market to follow up and should not be pessimistic.

On the whole, the current growth situation and corporate profits may continue to be better, while disturbances such as the US election, Sino US friction, valuation pressure, policy exit and other disturbances are short-term, partial or marginal. Although the epidemic situation has local recurrence, the economic damage may be significantly less than that in the first half of the year; when prices are generally low, there is little possibility of substantial policy tightening; in the market, there is no significant difference between the two The long-term positive factors have not changed.

Industry suggestions: Keep the trend of consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading, and make the old and new more balanced

At present, it is suggested to pay attention to three main lines

1） New energy, photovoltaic and new energy vehicle industry chain ；

2) Based on the continued recovery of China's growth, we should pay attention to the relatively backward consumption and low valuation Auto parts, home appliances, light industrial home furnishings Etc;

3) Attention in the old economy Securities companies and insurance leaders , and other parts of the undervalued old economic plate, medium-term bargain taking representative High quality leader of consumption and industrial upgrading trend 。

China and the United States, 3) the second round of global GDP growth, 3) the second round of global GDP growth, 2) the second round of global GDP growth.