Who Is The "Slag Man" And Who Is The "Warm Man"?

Behind the great development of active equity funds, a new phenomenon has begun to appear. There is a huge contrast between the issuance market and the stock market.

According to the research data of the 21st century economic report, taking the second quarter of 2020 as an example, the new issuance scale of active equity funds is 265 billion yuan, but the net redemption scale of stock funds is 82.6 billion yuan.

As a result, the stock funds that fund companies desperately want to keep have to face fierce competition. On the one hand, a large number of old funds have lost their flow; on the other hand, some fund shares have gone against the market and become new flow stars.

However, on the other side of the data, fund performance is unexpectedly divided: some become the "dregs" of investors, and some become the "warm men" of investors to make money.

Information map.

Flow stars in old funds

According to the latest fund share data, by the end of the second quarter of this year, the top 10 funds with the largest increase in active equity shares in the first half of this year are: xingxinxinjing (Dong Chengfei) 8.948 billion shares, Wanjia industry optimization (Huang Xingliang) 5.268 billion shares, GF stable growth a (Fu Youxing) 4.255 billion shares, and noan growth (CAI Songsong) 3.930 billion shares 3.780 billion copies of China Europe medical and health a (Ge Lan), 3.657 billion copies of GF trend optimization a (Tan Changjie), 3.562 billion copies of GF healthcare a (Wu Xingwu), 3.525 billion copies of e fund blue chip selection (Zhang Kun), 3.210 billion copies of GF double engine upgrade a (Liu Gesong), and 3.037 billion copies of Xingquan Trend Investment (Dong Chengfei, Tonglan).

If the changes in the net value of funds are taken into account, as of October 22, the top 10 active equity funds with the largest increase in scale since October 22 are: xingxinxinjing (Dong Chengfei) of 15.444 billion yuan, China Europe medical health a (Gelan) of 14.344 billion yuan, Guangfa medical health a (Wu Xingwu) of 12.932 billion yuan, Guangfa Shuangqing upgrade a (Liu Gesong) of 11.899 billion yuan, and GF small cap Growth a (Liu Gesong) was 10.881 billion yuan, Wanjia industry optimization (Huang Xingliang) was 10.624 billion yuan, Galaxy innovation and growth (Zheng Weishan) was 12.442 billion yuan, Xinda Aoyin new energy industry (Feng Mingyuan) was 9.899 billion yuan, e-fonda blue chip selection (Zhang Kun) was 9.795 billion yuan, and noan growth (CAI Songsong) was 9.422 billion yuan.

From the growth of the above-mentioned fund shares and scale, there are 7 overlapped in the top 10, and the coincidence rate is high.

According to the 21st century economic report, there are many commonalities among the top funds in the first half of the year.

For example, relevant funds are mainly concentrated in fund managers with outstanding performance in the past, such as Dong Chengfei of Xingzheng Global Fund, Huang Xingliang of Wanjia fund, Ge Lan of China Europe Fund, Liu Gesong of Guangfa fund, Zhang Kun of e fund, Feng Mingyuan of Xinda Aoyin fund, etc.

In addition, they are mainly large fund companies or fund companies with significant equity characteristics, such as Xingzheng Global Fund, e fund, Guangfa fund, Wanjia fund, China Europe Fund, etc.

In terms of themes, there are also many similarities, mainly focusing on science and technology, medicine and large consumption funds, such as Xingxin new vision, Wanjia industry optimization, GF double engine upgrade, Galaxy innovation and growth, China EU medical health, GF healthcare, e-fund blue chip selection, etc.

Zhang Ting, chief strategist of GESHANG financial management, said that the biggest feature of the scale of active equity funds is that the head concentration has been greatly improved. The products managed by many fund managers with excellent performance have absorbed most of the funds in the market, while the scale of many funds with small scale or poor performance has gradually declined.

It pointed out that active management funds need to meet the following conditions to attract capital inflow: first, the historical performance should be excellent enough, the medium and long-term performance should be ranked in the forefront of the same category, and the sustainability and stability of the performance is relatively good; second, because the market main line from January to July this year is science and technology and medical consumption, the investment themes of funds with large capital inflow are more concentrated in these fields For example, most companies have strong long-term and long-term performance, such as strong long-term and long-term performance of the fund; for example, they are good at long-term and long-term performance of the fund, such as strong long-term and long-term performance of the fund; for example, they are good at long-term and long-term performance of the fund; for example, they are good at long-term and long-term performance of the fund; for example, they are good at long-term and long-term performance of the fund, such as the ability Fund managers have star effect.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said, "this year's equity funds rely on three points: first, the performance is relatively good in the past; second, the popularity of fund managers; third, the channel capability of fund companies. These fund companies with strong capabilities in various aspects have larger product increment and scale today."

Behind the performance differentiation data

Can this kind of flow logic support enough money making effect?

According to the statistics of 21st century economic reporter, among the active equity funds with the largest share growth in the first half of the year, there is a significant differentiation in the current performance.

As of October 22, the performance of the top 20 funds with the highest growth share in the first half of this year were: xingxinxinjing (Dong Chengfei) 25.33%, Wanjia industry optimization (Huang Xingliang) 46.26%, Guangfa steady growth a (Fu Youxing) 19.01%, noan growth (CAI Songsong) 26.25%, China Europe medical and health a (Gelan) 54.15%, GF trend preferred a (Tan Changjie) 5.32%, and GF medical insurance Jian a (Wu Xingwu) 58.16%, e fund blue chip selection (Zhang Kun) 66.02%, GF double engine upgrade a (Liu Gesong) 35.87%, Xingquan Trend Investment (Dong Chengfei, Tonglan) 33.55%, GF small cap growth a (Liu Gesong) 35.46%, Xinda Aoyin new energy industry (Feng Mingyuan) 34.42%, e-fund information industry (Zheng Xi) 33.60%, GF diversified emerging (Liu Gesong, 35.35% of the total value of the industry was created by Mr. Wang and Mr. Wang.

Among the top 20 funds with the largest inflow of funds in the first half of this year, as of October 22, the best performance since this year was e fund blue chip selection (Zhang Kun) 66.02%, Guangfa healthcare a (Wu Xingwu) 58.16% (Note: in contrast, this year's best performance of active equity funds is GF manufacturing a102.97%), the worst is Penghua Hongkang a (ye chaoming) 0.99%, Guangfa trend The optimal potential a (Tan Changjie) was 5.32%.

As of October 22, the total index of stock funds has increased by 29.33% and the total index of hybrid funds has increased by 30.09%. On the whole, the income is relatively bright.

Among the top 20 funds with the largest capital inflow in the first half of the year, 13 of them were above the average, that is, they exceeded the total index of stock funds and hybrid funds (about 30%), accounting for 65%; and 7 funds were lower than the average, accounting for 45%.

Half (10) of the 20 active equity funds with the largest increase in capital share in the first half of this year are partial equity hybrid funds. Since this year, the median return of partial equity hybrid funds is 35.53%. However, among the 20 active equity funds with the largest increase in the first half of this year, only 7 of the 20 active equity funds with the largest increase in the first half of this year have a return of more than 35.53%, accounting for only 45%.

That is to say, compared with similar funds, the performance of the funds with the largest increase in fund shares this year has not performed better. In other words, they also show the phenomenon of performance differentiation.

In addition, there are also fund performance like a "roller coaster", with ups and downs. Among them, the most concerned by the market is the growth mix of noan. In the first half of this year, the fund share increased by 3.9 billion shares. As of October 22, the fund scale increased by 9.422 billion yuan, ranking the first in terms of increment.

However, the net value of the growth mix of noan has changed greatly: the annual income of last year was 95.44%, which ranked the top. As a result, a large amount of funds poured into the first half of this year. On April 1, this year, the net value was 1.2510 yuan, an increase of 1.69%; on July 14, the net value was 2.2430 yuan, an increase of 80% over the beginning of the year; on October 21, the net value was 1.2592, an increase of 28% over the beginning of the year.

It is reported that the fund's main position in the semiconductor plate.

New logic of old fund investment

According to the lessons learned from the above statistics, for the basic people, how to choose the stock funds of active equity to obtain better returns?

According to analysts, the current environment of "weak profit recovery + reasonable and sufficient liquidity" has not changed substantially, and stock assets still have cost performance. However, the current valuation is in the stage of structural overvaluation, which means that the difficulty of stock selection is increasing. Under the background of liquidity from "substantial easing" from January to April to "moderate easing" after May, The market trend has also changed from "valuation driven" to "profit driven", and the expected return on investment will be reduced. Next, with the disclosure of the third quarter report, the market will start around the third quarter report.

From the perspective of market style, the current economic data continues to recover, PPI gradually goes up, CPI goes down, corporate profits are gradually distributed between upstream, midstream and downstream, midstream enterprises continue to increase high, upstream profit margin repair increases, and the short-term market style may shift to cyclical plate periodically. However, in the medium term, the market style is difficult to change extremely, and the business cycle of scientific and technological medical treatment is still in existence.

According to the reporter's understanding, at present, fund companies are still very serious in their online promotion. Under the pressure of supervision, some companies still rely on short-term performance to publicize and drain.

"In the selection of stock equity funds, on the one hand, select the products managed by fund managers with excellent performance in the medium and long term to improve the annualized return of medium and long-term investment; on the other hand, at the current stage, it is suggested to balance the fund style of heavy positions and favor science and technology and medical consumption from the past, so as to make some deviation to the cyclical plate and reduce the short-term fluctuation risk." Zhang Ting said.

Yang Delong suggested that "from the allocation direction, white horse stocks with good performance, especially the consumption of white horse stocks, have better opportunities, so we can allocate more funds that are partial to consumption."

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