Demand Side Starts Polyester Filament Market To Usher In "Silver 10" Market

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic polyester filament market rebounded strongly in October, among which polyester DTY increased the most, with 150D / 48F low elasticity falling by 8.94% in the same month, and 19.53% lower than that in the same month, followed by polyester POY and polyester DTY.

　　 Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market in October, unit: yuan / ton

The demand side started and ushered in the "silver 10" market. During the national day, the rebound of oil price provided the initial power for the price increase of polyester filament industry chain, and then the demand side got favorable support. Orders from overseas textile industry are flowing into China, and the textile and clothing markets at home and abroad are picking up sharply as the "double 11", Christmas, Spring Festival and other festivals are approaching. According to the latest data of the General Administration of customs, in September 2020, the export of textiles and clothing reached 28.37 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.2%, including 13.15 billion US dollars of textile exports, an increase of 35.8%, and 15.22 billion US dollars of clothing exports, an increase of 6.2%.

In addition, this year's cold winter is expected to make the market better in autumn cashmere fabric shipment, home textile, winter warm clothing and other market demand, factory orders are mostly maintained until early November. For example, in the traditional market of China Light and Textile City, the varieties of new fashion fabrics and leisure top fabrics in autumn and winter increased, and the transaction volume of many varieties increased. It is understood that local production and sales recovered from October 6 to 9. The average production and sales of major polyester filament manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions were 140% - 160%, and the production and sales of some higher enterprises were more than 300%. In the first trading day after the festival, both the volume and price of polyester filament rose, especially DTY. The price went up all the way, with an increase of nearly 10% as of the 22nd compared with the beginning of the month.

However, as the winter fabric procurement is basically exhausted, the order situation of replenishment is not enough to maintain the market growth. At the same time, weak crude oil finishing, PTA new production capacity put into production, resulting in a small decline in the price of polyester filament. The average production and sales of major factories are between 50% and 70%, and the production and sales of some better factories can reach 100%. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 27-39 days, of which POY inventory is up to 9-17 days, FDY inventory is around 20-39 days, and DTY inventory is about 28-39 days.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the current peak season of overall demand is coming to an end, and it will usher in the traditional off-season in November. Moreover, the epidemic situation in foreign countries is still severe. Some countries and regions in Europe and the United States once again take restrictive measures. There is still great uncertainty in the demand recovery. Textile enterprises also have concerns. They adopt the business strategy of more market-oriented atmosphere and production according to order.

In addition, the current raw material PTA market, crude oil is weak finishing, downstream polyester speculation ends, new capacity production price drops. In the future, it will face the pressure of new capacity release, and there is no inventory inflection point in inventory. As of October 23, the social inventory was about 3.5 million tons, which was at the high level in the same period from 2016 to 2019. It is expected that the social inventory will continue to accumulate in November and December. Overall, market supply remained loose expectations, and the upward drive was still insufficient.

On the whole, there are more bad news released in the polyester filament Market in November, and all parties have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Purchasers are cautious, and there may be a risk of price falling.