International Oil Rating: Strong Demand For Travel During Thanksgiving, But Limited By The Aggravation Of The New Crown Epidemic, The US Oil Stabilized The $40 Barrier

The oil market outlook is boosted by the likely strong demand for travel on Thanksgiving Day, as well as the continuous decline of API inventory predicted by the market. However, the United States is entering the most serious stage since the outbreak of the epidemic, which limits the upward space of oil prices, and Trump's statement brings doubts to the future. However, as a whole, driven by the optimism of Pfizer's new crown vaccine, international oil prices continue to rise. U.S. WTI crude oil December futures closed up $1.07, or 2.65%, to $41.36/barrel; Brent crude oil January futures rose $1.21, or 2.85%, to $43.61/barrel.

On the 9th, United Airlines said it planned to increase its flight schedule for the week of Thanksgiving on November 26, adding 9% of its capacity, or 1400 flights, in the week of November 23. It also plans to use large aircraft if the holiday is approaching and the demand is still high. This week is expected to be the busiest week in the United States since the outbreak of new coronary artery disease in March. Customers still have a wait-and-see attitude towards air travel. About half of the passengers book their flights one month before Thanksgiving, 40% more than in 2019, according to American.

After the close of crude oil on the 10th, API reported that US crude oil inventory decreased by 5.147 million barrels to 482 million barrels last week. Last week, the US crude oil price was expected to fall by another 10.9 million barrels / day, which was further supported by the US crude oil import data. Financial blog zero hedge said analysts expect crude oil inventories to fall again this week after last week's unexpected sharp decline, as the storm continues to inject noise into supply and demand signals. WTI crude oil futures rose 0.4 U.S. dollars after the data release due to the impact of crude oil inventory decline still greater than expected. Oil prices continued their recovery, supported by vaccine driven demand hopes, offsetting concerns about the blockade.

At present, public health experts warn that the United States is entering the most serious stage since the outbreak. It is true that the number of new coronavirus cases confirmed in the United States today (November 11) exceeded 100000 again. As of 05:28, Beijing time, the number of confirmed cases of new coronavirus in the United States reached 10.52 million, with 103713 cases increased to 10527408 cases, accounting for nearly one fifth of the world's confirmed cases; 240000 cases died, 1041 cases increased to 245497 cases, accounting for the total Nearly a fifth of all ball deaths. Although Pfizer's new crown vaccine has made a breakthrough, it has boosted the market as a whole. Biden said that despite the good news about Pfizer's vaccine, it will be months before universal vaccination is available in the United States. But it will take quite a long time to have a positive impact on the market sentiment through oil farringian's strategy.

For example, the Brazilian health regulatory agency said on Monday (November 9) that clinical trials of China's new coronapneumonia vaccine had been suspended due to "adverse reactions" in a volunteer's trial of China's Kexing vaccine, which was a blow to one of the most advanced candidate vaccines. In response to the Brazilian health agency's suspension of vaccine testing, the latest response from Kexing biological insiders said that "it is still in the process of communication and understanding". Pfizer says Pfizer's new crown vaccine can prevent 90% of infections in large-scale trials, but there is still a lot of data to test.

In addition, there are media reports of a sharp rise in the number of job cuts in the UK, with the number of unemployed climbing to the highest level since 2009. In the three months to September, the number of people looking for work has soared by nearly 250000, and the unemployment rate in September alone rose to 4.9%, the highest level since 2016. Recently, Manitoba province of Canada announced at a joint press conference on 10 November local time that the province has entered the highest level of epidemic prevention - red state of emergency for four weeks from 0:00 on November 12. It also reminds the market that the second wave of new crown disease is still rampant. Before the new crown vaccine is fully popularized in the world and effective treatment is taken, the current new crown epidemic is still depressing the prospects of economic demand, and before that, it also restricts the upward movement of crude oil.

Although a number of mainstream media in the United States predicted Biden to win the election, trump still refuses to accept the defeat so far, and states that the result will be released next week, bringing doubts to the market. On the evening of November 10, Beijing time, according to the global network, the current president of the United States, trump, announced in a tweet that vote corruption would be revealed on Fox's Shaun hannita show at 9:00 this evening (10:00 a.m. Beijing time). Trump said, "we will win!" "We're making great progress and the results will come out from next week," he tweeted. However, on November 10 local time, the results of the US House vote were settled, and the Democratic Party was assured that they would maintain control of the 218 seats in the house of Representatives and gain the majority seats in the house of Representatives. International Energy Agency Director Birol said Biden (led by the Democratic Party) is likely to focus on climate and promote renewable energy, so there is likely to be considerable volatility in the oil market outlook.

Russia's energy minister Novak's statement also brings uncertainty to the oil market's prospects. Although the media and the evaluation agencies agree that it is very likely that OPEC + will postpone its production increase plan. Recently, Saudi oil minister and UAE energy minister all agreed that OPEC + can adjust the production reduction agreement if necessary. However, Russia's energy minister Novak expressed disagreement, and it is too early to discuss the adjustment of the OPEC + agreement before the meeting of the ministerial Supervision Committee of OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries.

In the EIA short-term energy outlook report, EIA adjusted the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2020 to - 8.61 million B / D, previously - 8.62 million B / D; in 2021, the growth rate of global crude oil demand was adjusted to 5.89 million B / D, previously 6.25 million B / D; the U.S. crude oil production in 2020 was expected to be 11.45 million B / D; the WTI crude oil price in 2020 was estimated to be 38.24 US dollars/ The price of Brent crude oil in 2020 is expected to be $40.61/barrel, which was previously expected to be $41.19/barrel; the WTI crude oil price in 2021 is expected to be $44.24/barrel, which was previously expected to be $44.72/barrel; the Brent crude oil price in 2021 is expected to be US $46.59/barrel, which was previously expected to be $47.07/barrel.

Vitol, the number one oil trader, expects oil demand to recover by the end of 2021 and should return to pre outbreak levels in the northern hemisphere in the autumn of next year. Russell Hardy, Vitol's chief executive, said on Tuesday that by the fourth quarter of next year, the blockade and the consequent reduction in economic activity will be fully eased, bringing oil demand to about 101 million barrels per day, compared with the current global oil demand of 96 million barrels per day, lower than the peak of 102 million barrels at the end of 2019 before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic. Excess oil inventories are continuing to decline, and Hardy expects that if OPEC and its allies, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, suspend their proposed production increases, they will lose 100 million barrels in the next five months. Hadi said the market would need to absorb the excess oil price by 2021 to reach equilibrium.

Vitol's CEO said oil prices are expected to approach or exceed $50 in the coming months. In the second half of the year, the return of Iranian oil to the market is a problem. If OPEC delays production cuts, oil inventories will rise in the second quarter of next year. Biden's president-elect is good for oil prices in terms of capital cost and regulation.