The Surge Of Textile Raw Materials Triggered A "Rush For Cloth", With A Maximum Increase Of 254%!

Since September, due to the out of control epidemic situation in India, many large export-oriented textile enterprises in India have been unable to guarantee normal delivery. In order to ensure that the supply of goods in the Thanksgiving and Christmas seasons will not be affected, European and American retailers have transferred many orders originally produced in India to China for production, and the turnover of factories has soared by five times.

With the overall recovery of the textile and clothing industry, raw materials, cotton yarn, grey cloth, fabrics, etc., China's textile and clothing exports are facing a severe test. The textile and clothing export orders received in August and September may not be implemented due to the substantial increase in production costs; on the other hand, some foreign trade companies can not find suppliers and manufacturers to process orders for export to Europe, America, ASEAN and other countries At present, there is a situation that "although there are many orders, there will be less next".

In addition, under the expectation of RMB appreciation, the imported yarn is also in the "closed plate" state without quotation. In order to ensure the production and delivery, a "cloth rush" has also opened the curtain in the textile industry.

According to the survey of more than 90 designated textile enterprises by China's cotton early warning system, raw material inventory and textile output of textile enterprises increased month on month in October, while yarn and cloth inventory decreased.

In October, the price of cotton yarn at home and abroad rose sharply. The average price of domestic 32 pure cotton yarn in October was 21668 yuan / ton, which was 3156 yuan / ton higher than last month, 556 yuan / ton higher than the same period last year, or 2.63%; the average monthly price of imported 32 pure cotton yarn was 21601 yuan / ton, 3006 yuan / ton higher than last month, 409 yuan / ton higher than the same period of last year, or 1.93%.

Cotton has entered the rising range since May. According to the statistics of the business agency, from April to September 2020, the domestic lint price as a whole maintained an upward trend, with a cumulative increase of 1811 yuan / ton, or 16.31%. However, after entering October, the increase of cotton price accelerated sharply. As of October 19, the average price of domestic lint spot market was 14948 yuan / ton, which was 2020 yuan / ton higher than that on October 1, or 14.62%, and 17.03% higher than that of last year.

In addition, due to market rumors that affected by La Nina phenomenon, this year will be the once-in-60-year cold winter, down enterprises have hoarded goods, resulting in insufficient supply. The prices of duck feather and down will reach two peaks in May and October 2020 respectively. At the beginning of May, the price of white duck down with 90% down content rose to 180000 yuan per ton, which began to rise all the way from August. In late October, it reached 290000 yuan per ton, up 61% compared with the price in May. Recently, the price hovered around 280000 yuan. However, the price of duck feather has soared to 250000 yuan / ton in more than a month since the middle of May, hovering between 200000 yuan and 270000 yuan / ton from July to September, and once rose to 400000 yuan / ton in October.

According to price monitoring, since the middle of August this year, the domestic market of spandex has been rising. As of November 16, the average ex factory price of 40d was 40800 yuan / ton, with an increase of 32.04% in the past three months and a year-on-year increase of 28.87%.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

Spandex manufacturers have also issued price increase notices for many times. On the one hand, it is mainly from the upstream cost push up. On the other hand, the downstream terminal customers' orders are well followed up. The manufacturers' overstocked inventory in the early stage is gradually cleared, and the inventory level has dropped to the historical low level, and even some batch numbers are tense. The prices of various specifications have increased by 1000-2000 yuan / ton from the beginning to 2000-3000 yuan / ton in the later stage 。 At present, the 40d price of the factory ranges from 35000 to 43000 yuan / ton. The market is still strong and high, and the industry is operating at a high level near 90%, and the supply of goods is still slightly tight.

Although the export performance of the textile industry is excellent, for some return orders, the textile and clothing industry generally judges that it is "emergency order". These orders are difficult to stay in China for a long time because they are not dominant in labor costs. ?

Good guy, PC has been rising since mid October. Recently, Zhenjiang Qimei PC has stopped production due to failure, which is to add firewood to the rise of PC!

According to market news, the PAbs plant of Qimei in Zhenjiang is also in the process of being shut down. PC is expected to stop production for 1 month, ABS is expected to stop production for 10 days. Circle of friends directly howl, crying no way!

ABS increased by 50.79%, and the 800000 production lines of Zhenjiang Qimei were overhauled.

Compared with the low point of 1745894 yuan / ton in the last year, the average price was 1165894 yuan / ton. Coincidentally, on the other hand, Zhenjiang Qimei's 800000 ton ABS equipment also has problems. According to market rumors, this week's 707k and 757K production lines broke down and were shut down for maintenance. The specific repair days are not available. It is estimated that the overhaul loss will be about 3000 tons in 7 to 10 days.

At present, the market center of gravity moves up, the spot supply is tight, the overall bullish, PC has risen to the closed plate! It is expected that PC will continue to rise in the coming month.

Although the shutdown of 0.8 million tons of ABS units for 10 days can impact the market, the current ABS trading is still good, and it is expected that high consolidation will be the main trend in the short term. ?

Last month, major international manufacturers such as BASF, DuPont and Landis announced price increases. The prices of related raw materials in the industrial chain have also been rising, and the replenishment business of downstream factories tends to be rigid demand.

Judging from the substantial growth of raw materials, we can see that the pull of downstream market is an important factor. For example, after the epidemic has been basically controlled, many downstream industries have recovered. Household appliances, furniture, mattresses, sponges and so on have affected the polyurethane industry chain, such as MDI, TDI, propylene oxide, polyether and other raw materials and plastics. PC, ABS, GPPS price rise has played a big role. India's recent return of orders to China has also greatly increased the prices of many raw materials in the textile industry chain. In the future, infrastructure and other industrial projects will still lead to a large number of plastic chemical products, and the contradiction between supply and demand will inevitably lead to price changes.

On the other hand, the phenomenon of "big companies" is widely distributed in the domestic chemical raw materials industry. For example, in the MDI industry, Wanhua chemical, BASF, kestron, Huntsman and Dow Chemical account for more than 88% of the global production capacity. In the TDI industry, BASF, kestron, Wanhua chemical and Cangzhou Dahua account for about 60% of the production capacity. Coupled with the high overlap between TDI and MDI leading companies, the top five companies in the titanium dioxide industry account for half of the production capacity, and the epoxy resin in Huangshan area of Anhui Province accounts for more than 60% of the domestic market. This explains why weak markets cannot stop the pace of price increases in the wake of the epidemic.

Hot trends are just beginning. Textile industry orders to next May, dimethyl carbonate line up to next spring festival, many enterprises can not line up, no longer quote. This trend will gradually spread to many industries. This rhythm also determines that the price of plastic chemicals will continue to soar, even until the middle of next year, and the situation that "money can't buy goods" will appear more frequently. ?