Investors Said That After The Outbreak And Cooling, The Power Battery Reproduction Industry Has Entered A Mature Development Period

In retrospect, Lu Zhikai still can't forget the development stage of power battery recycling industry in 2018, which was held by high enthusiasm of financial capital.

"Very impressive. In 2018, I visited a new third board listed company in the power battery recycling industry. At that time, the company received 5-6 waves of investment institutions a day, and 20-30 people participated in each round, which shows the market atmosphere. " He recalled to reporters.

Lu Zhikai is the investment director of Qingyu fund, who has been observing the power battery recycling industry for many years. Now, he knows very well that it was a period of not so calm development. From the second half of that year to 2019, the whole industry will rapidly reduce temperature due to changes in internal and external environment.

However, it can be clear that with the new energy vehicle subsidy policy going into the market-oriented development stage after the decline, plus the previous round of in-depth adjustment among industries, the whole industry will enter the mature stage of development.

"Next, I think the industry will go through the second development cycle, which will be more rational than the first development cycle." Lu Zhikai pointed out that since then, there should be no irrational growth of the industry like that in 2015-2018. There are signs of a new round of development cycle, and it is estimated that around 2021 will be a key node.

Spring after five rounds of adjustment

According to Lu Zhikai's observation, the development process of the power battery cycle industry is not entirely in line with the development cycle of new energy vehicles. The industry has gone through about five iterations so far.

Before 2009, it can be regarded as the embryonic stage of the industry. In the absence of national standards, there are only lithium battery enterprises engaged in ore processing or waste recycling in commercial society. "For example, tungsten is extracted from alloys, cobalt sulfate and lithium carbonate are extracted from ores. However, these enterprises were more oriented to the niche market at that time, because the upstream volume was limited and the scale was small. " He said.

The start-up period is about 2009-2015. In addition to the standard, it is also affected by the new energy vehicle industry policy and market driven. Good expectations for the future make the industry participants grow rapidly.

But at the same time, the global financial crisis led to a sharp decline in metal prices, and the market gradually entered the slow bull range, and some of the companies involved were also eliminated in this context.

However, the technology of some power battery recycling enterprises has been preliminarily verified, and the industry's technology in disassembly, smelting and other links has begun to develop initially.

From 2015 to 2018, the industry has entered a period of great development for the first time. In the second half of 2015, the volume of new energy vehicle products began to rise, driving the rapid rise of battery waste during this period.

Under such an opportunity, the enterprises which have been established for many years in the early stage can obtain higher profits and earnings performance by "following the wind" due to their certain technical reserves; meanwhile, more companies in subdivided fields have been established one after another.

External capital is also active. Firstly, industrial capital began to invest and reserve in power battery cycle related production lines. At the beginning of 2018, financial capital also began to pour in. But in the second half of that year until 2019, the whole market has rapidly cooled down.

Standing in the present analysis, the cooling at that time was also related to the promotion of the industry heat. Lu Zhikai said that at this stage, as a large amount of battery waste that had been overstocked in the early stage began to be consumed and disposed of, the price of incoming materials from upstream became expensive. In addition, the prices of rare metals cobalt and lithium are falling significantly, the cost threshold from raw materials has been flattened, and the power battery recycling industry has been pushed back to the cooling off period.

What's more, it was facing the arrival of the cold winter of capital, and even forced the power battery regeneration enterprises to start to adjust from the business model or development strategy.

Of course, in the cooling off period, the role of the industry is becoming more and more abundant. For the recycling outlets of power batteries, the pretreatment capacity has been quietly cultivated.

Technological capacity reserve will change the position of the industry

This year, variables have emerged. "From the enterprises we invested in, we found that there are many enterprises that need to deal with lithium iron phosphate batteries, which means that battery waste has begun to grow rapidly. At the same time, although the rapid development of new energy vehicles has led to the rapid expansion of cobalt and lithium production capacity and the emergence of oversupply, with the reduction of production of some foreign lithium mining enterprises, the relationship between supply and demand has been flattened again The price of metal has returned to normal level Lu Zhikai pointed out that after the adjustment of industrial cycle, the employed enterprises and capital have become more rational. At the same time, under the promotion of some funds, policies and industrial chain related factors, signs of a new round of development cycle have appeared.

In this process, power battery regeneration enterprises will undoubtedly change their past industrial status and move to the front end of the value chain.

Lu Zhikai analyzed to reporters that in the past, the price of power batteries sold to waste recycling enterprises after they were retired was often very low, but the price of continuing to transfer to battery recycling enterprises was relatively high, which was often affected by the level of power battery waste.

With the rise of new energy vehicle industry, the amount of waste is increasing, and the spillover effect will gradually appear. "At this time, whoever is in a higher industrial chain barrier will have a stronger voice and get more value chain distribution." He analyzed that the number of power battery recycling enterprises is smaller than that of waste recovery enterprises, and the technical capacity reserve is abundant, which will undoubtedly change the industrial status and thus change the commercial structure of the long-term development of the whole industry.

This highlights the value of the industry. Although it is difficult for external institutions to enter into the investor list of the bang Pu cycle after Ningde became the controlling shareholder in the era of Ningde, this does not prevent it from being regarded as an important observation target.

Lu Zhikai pointed out to the reporter that Bangpu cycle is an enterprise established in the embryonic stage of the industry. Up to now, both in terms of technology and scale, it is the industry leader in the upstream field of ternary battery. At the same time, thanks to the support of Ningde era, a major shareholder, it has certain industrial advantages. "Of course, the core premise is that trump itself is relatively complete in terms of technology perfection, technology systematization and industrial chain layout." He continued.

At the same time, he believes that at present, there is still a huge space for imagination in the domestic power battery recycling industry. Compared with lithium iron phosphate battery, the competition among industry companies in the field of ternary battery is more intense, and the development stage of full competition in the real industry will be gradually ushered in in in the future.

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