International Crude Oil Is About To Break Through The 50 Mark? With The Free Ride Of Oil Price And Vaccine, Can PTA Get The Bottom?

On the morning of 23rd local time, an important oil facility in western Saudi Arabia was attacked by Yemeni husai forces, which is the second time Saudi Arabia's oil facilities have been attacked recently. The incident not only boosted the international oil price to its highest level since March, but also made the situation in Yemen, which had been relaxed, tense again.

No matter what the attack is related to, but one thing is certain, oil prices will certainly fluctuate with it! Oil prices followed, and Brent prices returned to the $46 range again. Once again, the oil price has reached the threshold of $46. If the price can be stabilized above $46 this time, the central probability of crude oil price will move up, and the market below $40 may be hard to see again.

The "attack" event is undoubtedly the catalyst for oil price breakthrough, so the success of the new crown vaccine experiment is a strong shot in the arm for the recovery of crude oil demand. After Pfizer and Modena vaccines, AstraZeneca pharmaceutical company announced that the effective rate of its new crown vaccine was about 90% without any side effects, and planned to start promoting the new crown vaccine next month.

As soon as the news came out, the global celebration of the upcoming vaccine also represented the release of a series of seven inches contained by the new coronavirus, such as the economy and crude oil. The optimistic expectation of the vaccine continued to boost the sentiment of the market.

Good things come one after another. OPEC and OPEC + will maintain the expectation of limiting production, which really makes the crude oil market see a bright side.

The upcoming handover of the US president also indicates that the United States will turn a new chapter. This time, Yellen's proposed appointment as the new Treasury Secretary has boosted market sentiment, which means Biden will make great efforts to stimulate economic development, such as using a longer lasting and lower interest rate policy.

Stephen Innes, chief global market analyst of Axi, said: the recent good news about the effect of vaccine research and development, and the expectation that OPEC + meeting at the end of this month may extend the current production reduction measures by another 3-6 months, continuing to drive positive market sentiment.

In the era of energy futures, it seems that the head of energy futures is going to throw off the vaccine.

Analysts said Brent has broken through the resistance range of $46.53-47.41, and it is expected that the oil price will break through $51 in the future, and even be able to approach $54 or even higher with the current momentum!

Since the middle of November, with the new low of PTA disk, together with the news of oil price, domestic and foreign vaccines and macro favorable news, bottom readers seem to see the dawn again, the nearly extinguished value investment flame starts to burn again, PTA spot price starts to rebound, as of November 27, the disk 01 contract has rebounded from the new low within the year by more than 300 yuan / ton, and the spot price in East China has increased by 2 00 yuan / ton.

Up to now, a very serious and practical problem is placed in front of investors and industry personages: is the current round of market rise rebound or reversal?

1. Inventory pressure is approaching high in recent years again

Although PTA processing range narrowed in November, the current overcapacity situation still maintained around 500 yuan / ton, and the processing range was still good.

Supported by this, the maintenance plan of PTA plant in November is basically within the expectation, and the average monthly load of domestic PTA is basically maintained at nearly 89%, and the monthly supply is about 4.4 million tons.

In terms of downstream polyester demand, although the new polyester plant is expected to be put into operation and some orders for domestic and foreign sales show a large volume trend, due to the excessive inventory in the early stage and the high inventory pressure of the industry, the enthusiasm of weaving production is not greatly improved. The overall load lifting pressure of polyester in November is still large, and the monthly supply of polyester is expected to be about 4.67 million tons.

According to the accounting of supply and demand in November, the daily output of PTA increased significantly, while the demand for downstream polyester did not change much. In January, PTA1 again accumulated a large amount of nearly 300000 tons, and the daily accumulation of the whole month was mainly concentrated in the second half of the month. At present, the social inventory has risen to around 3.6679 million tons, and the inventory pressure is approaching the high level in recent years, which is difficult to alleviate in the short term, and there is now upward space in the restricted period.

2. Strong basis pressure

In November, the number of equipment maintenance is less, the pressure of old and new goods and the storage capacity are limited, so it is difficult to effectively improve the price difference. As of the deadline, the spot basis difference is at the 01 contract discount of 180 yuan / ton, and there are many negotiations. In December, PTA's stock structure will continue to be strong, and the pressure on the stock market will continue to be strong.

Comprehensive consideration: there are many positive events in oil price, but its persistence and rising space are still to be discussed. After all, the vaccine is not a matter that can reach the psychological expectation of the market in a short time, and the number of new crown infections and deaths is still setting records. At the same time, although OPEC is expected to reach a delayed production increase plan, Libya, Iran, Venezuela and other countries are likely to break through the current low production capacity and substantially increase the crude oil export volume, which will impact on the existing crude oil market supply and make the situation of crude oil supply exceeding demand continue.

In a word, the favorable oil price has indeed taken the optimism into account in the market, but various uncertainties still exist. There are still weak expectations of supply and demand in PTA market. The market may continue to repeat before the complete reversal.