Performance Halo Fading: Dilemma And Changes Behind Frequent Replacement Of Professional Managers In Small And Medium Sized Real Estate Enterprises

From 2020 to 2021, it is very difficult for real estate enterprises.

Since the second half of 2020, the "three red lines" of real estate financing and the "three red lines" of real estate credit end have been issued one after another, and the high turnover mode of the industry has suddenly changed under the background of deleveraging.

One signal is: the end of the year is coming, the turnover of professional managers is surging, and concentrated in small and medium-sized real estate enterprises. In the last week of 2020, a number of professional managers of small and medium-sized real estate enterprises left in succession: Xu Xiaojun, President of territory group (06999. HK), Zhang Qiaolong, chairman and President of zhangtai group, Wu Jian, executive director and executive vice president of Longguang group, Liu senfeng, President of field group and Wang benlong, President of Sanxun group, etc.

From the current situation of these real estate enterprises, we can see that the pressure of "three red lines" exists. More realistically, the marketing pressure of small real estate enterprises is not small. In 2020, affected by the epidemic situation, the property market in the fourth and fifth tier cities is not strong, and the project layout of small and medium-sized real estate enterprises is more in these areas. The days when professional managers drove enterprises to climb the peak of performance may be gone forever.

As pointed out by Yu Liang, chairman of the board of directors of Vanke Group in October 2020, the real estate industry will return to an ordinary industry in the era of management dividend.

The reshuffle of small and medium-sized real estate enterprises intensified

In fact, the turnover of professional managers is the norm in the real estate industry in recent two years. Before that, the most typical case of professional managers in the industry was Chen Kai, who joined the company when the sales volume of sunshine city was only 2 billion years in 2012, and it took three years to bring this real small real estate enterprise to the scale of 20 billion, realizing the scale growth of 10 times.

Chen Kai is not a case in point. When the market is good, there are rumors of high year-end bonus and financial freedom through follow-up investment among professional managers of real estate enterprises. The aforementioned professional managers, such as Liu senfeng, are well-known in the industry. They have a common feature that they have changed jobs from well-known real estate enterprises such as country garden to small real estate enterprises, which reflects the intention of the founders of these small real estate enterprises to become large enterprises. After the great changes in the real estate market, the flow of personnel is inevitable.

From the instability of the management of small real estate enterprises, we can see that the industry shock is intensifying. According to Kerui data, in the past ten years, the proportion of investment demand of sample cities has changed. Except for Nantong, Xuzhou and Foshan, the investment demand has increased, while Changsha is flat, most cities have experienced varying degrees of decline. Among the first tier cities, Beijing's pure investment accounted for 29%, down 6% compared with three years ago; the proportion of investment and self residence was 19%, which was 9% lower than that of three years ago. Overall, the investment demand decreased by 15%.

With the aggravation of urban differentiation, small real estate enterprises are faced with more uncertain factors, such as price fluctuation, urban supply and demand changes, trading rights and interests decline.

It can also be seen from the concentration of newly added goods value in 2020 that the top 30 real estate enterprises still account for 72%, while the newly added value of real estate enterprises outside the top 50 only accounts for about 13% of the whole industry.

Zhang Yan, vice president of Yuzhou real estate, believes that the strategic layout of the city will directly affect the company's marketing situation. Yuzhou real estate has achieved a scale of 100 billion yuan this year. It will continue to focus on the first and second tier core urban agglomerations (such as Dawan District, Yangtze River Delta, Haixi, Chengdu Chongqing, central China, Bohai rim, etc.) and continue to focus on profit and risk control for steady development.

This wave of market cycle adjustment, real estate enterprises will face a new round of shuffle. Another research institute industry insiders pointed out that in 2018, 2019 and 2020, many small and medium-sized real estate enterprises chose to sink into relatively weak fourth and fifth tier cities in order to avoid competing with superior brand real estate enterprises in the first and second tier high-quality core cities. In 2020, affected by the epidemic situation, the market in most areas of the fourth and fifth line will be seriously down and difficult to remove. "In fact, the plots that are easy to get are not easy to be removed in the later stage", while those that are difficult to seize are basically smooth sailing in the later stage.

The above-mentioned people pointed out that each enterprise has different choices. Some choose to be difficult first and then easy, while others choose to choose from easy to difficult. This round of adjustment is not only for small and medium-sized real estate enterprises, but also for Blu ray development and Zhongliang, whose sales scale has already exceeded 100 billion yuan. Before that, those who had more layout in the fourth and fifth tier cities were also hard to maintain on the road of removing difficulties. Under the three red lines, most real estate enterprises are aware that high turnover and high debt are unsustainable. The difficulties and adjustments of enterprises still relying on high turnover and high debt are just beginning.

The dilemma of professional managers

For a long time, in the real estate industry, the professional manager's responsibility is regarded as a "tool person" to assist the founder and promote the enterprise's sales scale to a higher level.

Before 2018, real estate enterprises are generally faced with the problem of large-scale, high debt and high turnover. At this time, professional managers play an important role.

From 2018 to 2020, the policy of "no speculation on housing and housing" will be launched, and the signs of deleveraging will also appear. In 2021, the certainty of tightening the industry is further revealed: the implementation of three red lines and "no speculation of housing and housing" has become a long-term mechanism.

Under such a macro background, professional managers no longer have market dividends and have to seek profit space from management, which is a severe test for the resources and management ability of professional managers.

During this period, the capital pressure of real estate enterprises also rose sharply. According to Kerui data, from 2018 to 2020, the default amount of credit bonds of real estate enterprises soared from about 8 billion yuan to nearly 24 billion yuan.

The butterfly effect began to appear at high prices. High loss risk land appears in the first tier and fourth and fifth tier cities, among which there are many small and medium-sized real estate enterprises. For example, in Shanghai, on July 31, 2020, Jinyu real estate Shanghai company seized r-09 residential plot of Jiangpu community, Yangpu District, Shanghai with a total price of 6.92 billion yuan and a premium rate of 38%, with a floor price of 85800 yuan / square meter, and the selling price of surrounding houses was about 110000 yuan / square meter. The land price to house ratio (hereinafter referred to as "land to house ratio") of this plot reached 0.78. In the view of most insiders, the plot is in deficit Risk of loss. In fact, an industry source has disclosed that about 40% of the projects on sale in Shanghai are at risk of loss.

In contrast, some real estate enterprises with less popularity than Jinyu real estate have higher land to house ratio and higher risk in hot cities. In Chengdu, for example, in February 2020, Huaxing real estate won a homestead in Xiehe street, Shuangliu District, Chengdu, with a total price of 1.177 billion yuan, a premium rate of 48.6%, and a floor price of 13700 yuan / square meter. The unit price of the surrounding houses for sale is about 16300 yuan / square meter, and the land to property ratio of this plot reaches 0.84; in Ningbo, Longguang real estate takes a plot with a land property ratio of 0.83.

In 2020, the market of the fourth and fifth tier cities will decline significantly. Before that, there are not a few real estate enterprises in the fourth and fifth tier cities. In the face of the disappearance of the land dividend, the confusion of professional managers comes one after another. Zhang Liang, a real estate veteran who has worked in top3 real estate enterprises for 10 years, has joined many small and medium-sized real estate enterprises. In 2020, he took up the post of vice president of a real estate enterprise ranking about 150 in the industry, and then left the company in a gloomy mood. Zhang Liang admitted to the 21st century economic reporter that driven by performance, the actual controllers of the company have very clear demands on performance. However, before he took office, most of the land acquired by the company was distributed in Henan Province in the central part and Yunnan Province in the southwest. In 2020, compared with the Yangtze River Delta region and Dawan District, the marketing channels of the projects in these two provinces were narrower than those in the Yangtze River Delta region and Dawan district Under the influence of limited purchase and price, the project profit fluctuates greatly.

Under the changing situation of the industry, where should professional managers go? A professional manager thinks that platforms and people achieve each other. From the perspective of their own choice, if they choose an enterprise with the right strategy, their career will be very smooth, otherwise, they will choose a difficult end for themselves. Recently, Liu senfeng revealed in his circle of friends that he would choose to start a business. Under the pressure of the three red lines, more professional managers may also be on the way to quickly turn green for enterprises.

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