Hot City Restlessness Leads To Intensive Regulation And Control. Can "Cold Air" Drive To Real Estate Enterprises To Stage A "Fight For Collection"?

Cold and warm, used to describe the January 2021 real estate market can not be more appropriate.

In the past month, the property markets in the first and second tier hot spots have been restless again. Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hangzhou have attracted fine-tuning or upgrading of regulatory policies. On the other hand, the further tightening of real estate finance has also affected the mood of the market and the trend of the future market. The cold air is blowing into the property market.

This round of hot city property market changes, although it does have the impact of the global flood, but the strong atmosphere of speculation, resulting in illegal funds into the real estate sector, is the focus of policy regulation and control now and in the future. At present, the tone of strictly regulating the real estate market will not change.

Has the real estate market reached a turning point?

The consensus of the industry is that profound changes have indeed taken place in the market environment. Facing the current reform period, how to solve the problem of real estate enterprises? There seems to be no better way to live within our means and trade in quantity at price.

Cold and warm, used to describe the January 2021 real estate market can not be more appropriate. IC photo

Intensive implementation of regulation and control

Although the market generally performed well in January of previous years, it is rare to see such a hot and intensive regulation and control situation as this year.

According to the monitoring of the China securities regulatory institute, in the first month of 2021, the price of new and second-hand houses in 100 cities increased month on month. Among them, the average price of new houses in 100 cities increased by 0.37% month on month, 0.12% higher than that in December last year; the average price of second-hand houses in 100 cities increased by 0.32% month on month, 0.04% higher than that in December last year.

In terms of transaction volume, according to the preliminary estimation of the China Academy of Sciences, in January 2021, commercial residential transactions in key cities will be about 40.3 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 75.0%. Among them, the overall growth rate of the first tier cities was 139%, of which the increase of Guangzhou was significant, followed by that of Shenzhen; the second tier cities also recorded an overall increase of 111.3%.

The inevitable result of house price rise and transaction volume is the increase of regulation policy. Since the middle and late January, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Hangzhou and other cities have frequently issued regulatory policies to curb the "housing rush", "patch up" and curb speculation by means of strengthening purchase restrictions, tightening housing loans, and guaranteeing the demand for goods, so as to promote the rational return of the real estate market.

Shanghai is the one with the largest policy increase. On January 29, 2021, Shanghai Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau issued the notice on Further Strengthening the management of personal housing credit, which put forward eight requirements for continuous improvement of personal housing credit management, including real estate loan concentration management, down payment fund source and solvency audit, borrower qualification examination and credit management, individual housing loan issuance management, and credit capital Gold use management, real estate intermediary business cooperation management, risk investigation, etc.

This round of regulation, the direction of concern is the tightening of housing loans, which is essentially different from the previous regulation.

On December 31, 2020, the people's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued the notice on establishing the concentration ratio of real estate loans of banking financial institutions. The notice sets upper limits on the proportions of real estate loans and personal housing loans of banks at all levels. Among them, banking institutions that do not meet the regulatory requirements shall complete business adjustment within 2 or 4 years.

The 21st century economic reporter learned from a number of bank personal loan managers in Guangzhou and Shenzhen that the current mortgage lending rate has indeed slowed down, and the tightening trend in the coming year will continue. "This has been the trend this year, and we don't expect much change in policy." A personal loan manager of Shenzhen commercial bank pointed out.

Song of ice and fire

In fact, although the property market looks "hot" on the surface, but if the sub city view, the market differentiation still exists. While the "false fire" in the property market of hot cities has been "poured cold water", the third and fourth tier cities with net population outflow, whether in the short term or in the long run, have downward worries.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2020, the sales prices of newly built commercial houses and second-hand houses in the third tier cities of 70 large and medium-sized cities will rise by 3.5% and 1.4% respectively over the same period of last year. However, the prices of second-hand houses in 14 third tier and fourth tier cities, including Mudanjiang, Nanchong, Zunyi and Yichang, have declined to varying degrees.

Among them, Mudanjiang city had the largest decline, with a decrease of 10%, a decrease of 1.6% compared with five years ago, a decrease of 5.4% in Nanchong, 3.5% in Beihai, 3.1% in Luzhou and 2.1% in Zhanjiang.

Property market down, the city is not optimistic. According to the data of the China Academy of Sciences, in January 2021, in terms of land supply, the supply of the first tier cities increased substantially, the overall supply of the second tier cities increased by nearly 15% year-on-year, while the supply and transaction scale of the third and fourth tier cities decreased significantly.

In addition, this year's "home ownership" market is not as expected, will become a foregone conclusion, the market also lost a "third, fourth tier cities" excellent window period.

A marketing director of a real estate enterprise in third and fourth tier cities told 21st century economic news that there was no "return home" market, and they would increase the discount on local customers, but it was "useless".

Wuhan intermediary boss lin ning felt very deep, "my sample size may not be large enough, but this year's home market has been slightly affected. There is about 20% decline, and at a smaller scale, it is also 5%. "

According to the survey report 2020-2021 on "home ownership" released by 58 cities and anjuke, 37.8% of the respondents want to go back home and buy a home, which is lower than 68.6% in 2020; 47.6% of the respondents want to stay in the working city, more than 31.1% in 2020.

Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong provincial housing policy research center, analyzed the 21st century economic report reporters that in the short term, home ownership will certainly be released to some extent, but in the medium and long term, the turnover and trading volume of the third and fourth tier cities will decline, and "home ownership" will not change the long-term downward trend of the third and fourth tier cities.

Real estate enterprises "rush to collect" war started?

To be sure, the trend of tightening financial regulation of real estate will not change in the future, and real estate enterprises should also take actions to pass the reform period as soon as possible.

On January 15, Zou LAN, director of the financial market department of the central bank, said at the press conference of the office of the State Council of the people's Republic of China, in terms of real estate financial regulation, we should strengthen the following actions: first, we should strengthen the real estate financial regulation and control, guide the reasonable growth of real estate loans of commercial banks, and promote more financial resources to the manufacturing industry, small and micro enterprises and other key areas and weak links; second, implement real estate finance Prudent management system, the formation of key real estate enterprise fund monitoring and management rules.

The horn has sounded, and real estate enterprises are actively responding to the challenge. A middle-level manager of a 100 billion real estate enterprise told the 21st century economic news reporter, "take us for example, we need to use marketing means to achieve rapid de capitalization, rush collection, reduce debt and reduce dependence on financing. In the future, investment will also be more prudent, focusing on core areas and strengthening cash flow management. "

On February 1, Evergrande announced that from February 1 to February 28, Evergrande launched an annual preferential activity for online house purchase across the country. The house price was not only as low as 7.5%, but also the house price was further reduced.

Although Evergrande has been selling "75% off" or "70% off" almost all year round, which makes this kind of marketing method seem quite "routine", it can still be seen that this leading real estate enterprise with high debt ratio has spared no effort in dealing with the new situation by constantly sending out "promotion" signals.

Cicci pointed out in a rating report that by the end of June 2020, Evergrande's total debt was 745.157 billion yuan, of which short-term debt was 468.087 billion yuan, accounting for 62.82% of the total debt, and the net debt ratio was 170.65%. There was a certain degree of debt repayment pressure.

In addition, the ever steady real estate enterprises also participated in this feast. For example, China Shipping real estate, jiazhaoye and other real estate enterprises have also launched corresponding spring festival promotion actions, including special price houses, new year house purchase gifts, purchase discounts, etc.

"If the credit side tightens, the market trading will be subject to a greater impact. So, what real estate enterprises can do is actually very simple, that is, to speed up the collection. " One analyst, who did not want to be named, stressed.

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