"Sniping" School District Housing: Undercurrent And Surging Of Beijing Property Market

Since the last ten days of January this year, the rhythm of Beijing's property market regulation has been accelerated, and the drum beat of regulation has been rapid and powerful.

On January 25, Wang Fei, Secretary of the CPC Committee and director of the Beijing Municipal Commission of housing and urban rural development, said the Beijing Municipal Commission of housing and urban rural development will strengthen strict supervision over long-term rental enterprises and prohibit enterprises from forming capital pools and rent loans. We will strictly investigate the illegal entry of funds into the real estate market and intermediary speculation and speculation.

On January 30, Beijing Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau strictly investigated the illegal flow of personal credit funds into the real estate market.

During the same period, the urban housing and construction department interviewed and continuously inspected real estate agencies. Some major intermediaries have recently signed a letter of commitment to reduce the frequency of house visits in hot spots, and do not participate in any illegal financial activities such as "operating loans", "down payment loans" and "consumer loans".

On February 2, many departments in Beijing issued a document to standardize the behavior of leasing enterprises.

Different from the previous package of regulation policies, this round of regulation has clear direction, detailed terms and strong operability. From the content point of view, rental and second-hand housing become the focus of regulation. If the regulation of the rental market is a policy repair, the regulation of the second-hand housing market is focused on the current market hot spots.

Since January, Beijing's second-hand housing transactions have continued to maintain a high level, and some hot school district housing transactions are irrational heating up, which once triggered the panic of market sentiment. Some senior practitioners in the industry told the 21st century economic report that the "hot spots" mentioned by the intermediary agencies in the commitment letter refer to some school district houses in Haidian District. Prior to the appointment of regulatory agencies to brokerage companies, school district housing has also been a focus.

Some analysts pointed out that behind the "sniping" school district housing in Beijing, the market has been warming up for many years. In the context of the overall warming up of the first-line property market, some demand is ready to move.

School District Housing again "thrilling"

Xicheng District and Haidian District are recognized as the "highland" of Beijing education. In May 2020, Xicheng District announced the implementation of multi school zoning from July 31 of that year, which once triggered the upsurge of school district housing transaction in Xicheng District. Since then, the school district housing in Xicheng District has cooled down, and many parents have "moved" to Haidian, where the degree is more abundant.

In the hummingbird home district of Haidian District, a real estate agent told the 21st century economic report that due to the small size and relatively low total price of Zhongguancun No.3 primary school, which is a "first-class and first-class" community, the house price of the community has experienced two jumps in the past year.

Take the south facing one bedroom apartment with an area of about 40 square meters as an example. In the middle of 2019, the unit price of the house type will be about 140000 yuan, and it will rise to more than 150000 yuan a year later. Since the beginning of this year, the unit price of the same house has risen to more than 160000 yuan, equivalent to a cumulative increase of about 1 million yuan in total price. However, due to the extremely hot demand, there are not many houses available for sale in the community at present.

According to the agent, some popular school districts in Haidian District did have the phenomenon of "one night price increase of 200000 and 300000", but only limited to individual housing resources. Most owners will not raise the price too high, because although there is a lot to see, but buyers will also evaluate the cost performance.

Even so, the ripple caused by the price jump is still spreading. Among the owners of a community in Chaoyang District, an edited video claims that after several years of horizontal trading, various favorable factors will promote the rise of Beijing's house prices. The video shows the changes in housing prices in different regions of Beijing since last year (the source of the data is unknown), including the housing prices of school districts in Haidian District.

The authority of this kind of video is questionable, but the reality is that after several years of strict regulation and control, Beijing's house prices have indeed experienced more than three years of "horizontal market period". At this point in time, the logic of rising house prices seems easy to believe.

In order to do a good job in expectation management, the housing and Construction Department of Beijing has interviewed and continuously inspected real estate intermediary agencies for many times since January, stressing that "it is not allowed to exaggerate and hype the house transaction information, not to encourage and guide the seller to increase the quotation at will, and not to publish articles that create panic about house purchase in wechat circle of friends and we media channels.".

At the same time, Lianjia, shell and other apps also removed the historical transaction information of each residential area, including the transaction price of each house.

In the view of most industry insiders, the warming up of school district housing in Haidian District has the comprehensive influence of factors such as education anxiety, bottom copy emotion, the obstruction of overseas education caused by the epidemic situation, and insufficient inventory. But at the same time, the background that the overall transaction of Beijing property market continues to heat up can not be ignored.

According to official data, in 2020, the city's second-hand residential transactions will reach 169 000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 16%. The absolute level and growth rate of transactions are the highest since 2017. Among them, the transaction scale in December last year exceeded 20000 sets. In January this year, 17513 sets of second-hand housing were signed online in Beijing. Although it fell down, it still rose 104% year on year, still belonging to the stage high.

A broker in Shuangjing District of Chaoyang District said that in December 2020, the turnover of its store reached a new high in recent years. The transaction cycle of some non high-quality housing is also significantly shortened, and the recent price has increased slightly.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in December 2020, the price of second-hand housing in Beijing rose by 0.5% month on month and 6.3% year-on-year.

Policy pressure and wait-and-see mood

After more than three years of horizontal market period, Beijing real estate market to rebound?

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that the warming of Beijing's property market is part of the overall warming up of the first-line property market under the background of monetary policy tending to be neutral. But on the whole, the heat of the Beijing market is not high. Although the city's trading volume was once at a high level since 2017, the overall volume was only about 20000 sets. At the same time, Beijing's transaction heat is very differentiated, except Haidian and a few other regions are relatively hot, most of the other regions are just stabilizing.

Combing the historical data, it is found that although the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Beijing reached a stage high last year, there is still a gap of about 100000 units compared with 270000 units in 2016. Most analysts believe that such volume is difficult to support the sharp rise in house prices.

Zhang Dawei said that in the fourth quarter of last year, Beijing's property market experienced a bottom reading mood, which not only promoted the rise of trading volume, but also led to the rise of house prices in some regions. But since then, wait-and-see sentiment has begun to emerge, and trading volume in January has declined.

"Due to the strictest regulation and the most difficult purchase, Beijing property market has always been the most stable market in the first and second tier cities. In this case, the market is unlikely to experience high temperatures. " Zhang Dawei thinks.

The role of policy regulation can not be ignored. As early as January 20, Haidian Housing Management Bureau interviewed a large number of intermediary agencies such as Lianjia, I love my family, maitian and Zhongyuan Real estate, and stressed that it was necessary to stop hyping the concept of school district housing and stabilize the order of stock housing market. The Department also inspected the intermediary agencies in the process of housing promotion and intermediary services, whether there is "School District Housing" as a reason to bid up housing prices, rent and other violations.

It is reported that in the inspection of intermediary agencies conducted by the two levels of housing and construction departments in Beijing, the principle of "check every rise, and handle every speculation" has been put forward. It also emphasizes strengthening the frequency of daily inspection, organizing secret visits, and jointly punishing the intermediary organizations and personnel who find speculation.

In fact, the promise of "reducing the frequency of house visits in hot spots" proposed by the intermediary agencies, although controversial, also reflects the regulatory determination of the regulatory authorities.

"Business loans", "down payment loans", "consumer loans" and other personal credit funds flowing into the property market are also the focus of Beijing's investigation and punishment in the near future. A financial intermediary told the 21st century economic report that he had helped many people apply for "consumer loans" and "business loans" last year, and a large number of customers used them to buy houses. But this year, because of the complexity of the process, his business has declined significantly.

Most analysts believe that as a city with an important wind vane significance, Beijing's property market will continue to enjoy the "key care" of regulation and control, including school district housing, and the possibility of a sharp rise in house prices is very low.

The only uncertainty is in the new housing market. The data shows that with the end of the sales boom of restricted competitive housing, the unrestricted commercial housing will occupy the mainstream of new housing supply again in 2021. Although new housing transactions account for only 20% of the Beijing market, just as restricted housing once suppressed the average price of the Beijing market, it remains to be seen whether these unrestricted housing resources can bring price pressure to the overall market.

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