Business Club Bulk Commodity Live Broadcast No.11: Experts Explain The Price Of Peanut Sugar In 2021

On February 23, the 11th live broadcast activity was held by the "bulk commodity live broadcasting center of business club" under Wangsheng business treasure (Stock Code: 002095, SZ). The theme of the activity is: the fundamentals are complicated, peanut sugar or "cattle eat grass". The speakers are Chen Jing, director of agricultural products research of CITIC futures research department, and Gao Wang, senior researcher of agricultural products of CITIC futures research and consulting department.

It is reported that the main contents of the live broadcast include: Peanut futures have made a good start on the first day of listing on February 1, and the main contracts have risen by 12%. Since then, it still performed well, and the price continued to be at a high level of 10000 yuan. Peanut futures soared mainly due to the tight periodic supply. Affected by the rainy weather in the main production areas, the quality of peanut declined and the supply was insufficient. During the Spring Festival, the tight supply of peanuts intensified, and prices rose all the way.

As a variety with strong seasonal consumption influence, since October 2020, the price of white sugar has continued to decline sharply, and the spot price has dropped by nearly 6%. Close to the Spring Festival, sugar spot market performance is relatively resistant to decline, and continues to run smoothly. The price of white sugar continued to fall, mainly due to the listing of new sugar, the large increase in import volume and oversupply, resulting in the continuous decline of spot price. After the Spring Festival, the weather turned warm and the demand was stable. The fundamentals of peanuts and sugar were "simple and confused" again, but the market was still available, and the investment opportunities were "Castanea from the fire".

(Note: Chen Jing, director of agricultural products research, CITIC futures research department, top right corner)

Chen Jing, director of agricultural products research of CITIC futures research department, said that the year 2020 / 2021 was the year of increasing production, and the supply tended to improve year on year. The pattern of supply and demand is gradually improved, which is dominated by the influence of oil price. It is estimated that the probability of price axis decline is large. The annual average price operation range may be (850010500) yuan / ton, and the rhythm is mainly seasonal.

"In terms of production and consumption, the global peanut production fluctuated and the global peanut domestic consumption showed an upward trend year by year. In terms of trade, the global peanut trade volume has remained at a historical high in recent years, but the proportion of the total trade volume in the global total supply and demand is still low. Inventory consumption ratio, a high decline trend, supply and demand in a state of balance Chen Jing said.

Chen Jing said that peanut stocks are expected to rise and the price axis will move down. The short-term price fluctuation of peanut is strong, showing a seasonal rebound from September to December 2020. Up to now, it is de stocking, and the current level is on the low median level in recent years. The medium and long-term axis moves downward, and the supply and demand in 20 / 21 tends to be tight and loose.

(Note: Gao Wang, senior research fellow of agricultural products, CITIC futures research and consulting department, top right corner)

Gao Wang, senior research fellow of agricultural products of CITIC futures research and consulting department, said that this year, we maintained the national sugar production of about 10.7 million tons; the import increased by 500000 tons to 5 million tons, mainly due to the large increase in imports in December. It is estimated that the import volume in 2021 may not be lower than that in 2020. Consumption has recovered, but compared with previous years, it will remain stable and will not increase much. The total amount will remain at about 15 million tons.

"In the next 1-2 months, prices may remain volatile and the supply of fundamentals will be loose, which will not support a sharp rise; however, it may be subject to macro disturbance, and the recent rise will be completely driven by the overall rise of commodities. The short-term pressure is not small, but the annual pressure is not small. The annual sugar production may increase. The filing system leads to import or large increase, supply increases, consumption maintains a recovery trend and maintains a stable situation. For downstream demand enterprises, or buying hedging on a small amount of bargain in March to April, we need to pay attention to the macro impact on commodities. " Gao Wang said.

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According to reports, CITIC Futures Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. CITIC Futures Co., Ltd., established on March 30, 1993, was wholly owned by CITIC Securities in 2007. In 2011, the company merged Zhejiang Xinhua futures brokerage Co., Ltd. and in 2014, the company merged CITIC Xinji Futures Co., Ltd. The company's business scope includes commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage, futures investment consulting, asset management and fund sales. Headquartered in Shenzhen, the company has 48 branches in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and other large and medium-sized cities, and 372 securities IB service outlets, covering the whole country.

Netsun. Com is an industrial Internet infrastructure provider. It provides B2B e-commerce platform infrastructure, supply chain financial infrastructure and network freight infrastructure for enterprises, realizing the integration of information flow, capital flow and logistics. Business agency is a data provider for bulk commodities, and a data organization for tracking, analyzing and researching bulk commodities. It is built by Wangsheng business treasure. The business agency tracks the spot data of more than 500 commodities in eight major industries, including energy, chemical industry, rubber and plastics, nonferrous metals, steel, textile, building materials and agricultural and sideline industries, and covers the data of more than 20 futures markets around the world, such as the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

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　　 Attachment: brief introduction of guests

　　 Chen Jing Director of agricultural products research, CITIC futures research department, master of China Agricultural University, joined CITIC futures research department in 2011, engaged in more than 15 years of agricultural product industry research and more than 9 years of agricultural product futures research. He is currently in charge of the agricultural product line of the research department of the company, concurrently serves as the internal training lecturer of the company, and has served as the internal lecturer of CITIC Securities for a long time, and has served as the guest representative of agricultural product industry research in CITIC Securities Strategy Conference for many times; he has long served as the futures investment and research service for domestic leading agricultural enterprises.

　　 Gao Wang: Senior Research Fellow of agricultural products, CITIC futures research and consulting department, bachelor's degree of China Agricultural University, 16 years of research experience and 9 years of futures experience. At present, he is responsible for the research and analysis of sugar futures. He is good at exploring the price trend of agricultural products from the supply and demand fundamentals. Through years of research and analysis, he has accumulated rich research experience and successfully served many domestic and foreign large spot enterprises and other large investment institutions.