How Will Shenzhen'S Property Market Go After The Mortgage Loan Is Tightened And The Business Loan Is Strictly Controlled?

"This is the most stringent regulation in the history of Shenzhen, and there will be no opportunities in the future." On February 20, 2021, in a real estate exchange group in Shenzhen, a person concerned about the Shenzhen property market said.

"It's over. My performance this month is only 88000, don't you think? " On the first working day after the Spring Festival in 2021, an intermediary in Shenzhen told the 21st century economic reporter.

As their personal feelings, almost all the speculation space in Shenzhen property market has been gradually "blocked" by the constantly upgraded regulatory policies. All funds that may flow into the property market illegally have been severely "targeted". The evaluation prices and proportions of mortgage loans and operating loans have gradually tightened, and the capital leverage that can be used is becoming lower and lower.

The determination of Shenzhen authorities to curb the "real estate speculation" is obvious. After all, Shenzhen's house prices are unique in the whole country. According to the latest housing price data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in January 2021, Shenzhen's second-hand house price rose again, with a month on month increase of 1.7% and a year-on-year increase of 15.3%.

Where will the Shenzhen property market go after the policy increase and supervision upgrade?

fix the drip in the faucet

The prelude of this regulatory upgrade in Shenzhen was opened by the official release mechanism of second-hand housing transaction reference price.

On February 8, 2021, the Shenzhen housing and Construction Bureau issued the notice of Shenzhen housing and Construction Bureau on establishing a mechanism for issuing the transaction reference price of second-hand housing. Subsequently, the government also released the transaction reference prices of second-hand housing in 3595 residential districts in the city.

According to the feedback of many market participants such as intermediaries, buyers and sellers, there is a certain price discount between the official reference price of second-hand housing transaction and the actual transaction price.

Although the market is ready for the release mechanism, at the beginning, not many market people will take a negative attitude.

"After the second-hand housing reference price mechanism was released on February 8, I was skeptical at that time. I felt that it was impossible for banks to implement this policy to approve housing loans. After all, the difference between the guiding price and the actual transaction price in the market was too big." Ye Li told 21st century economic report that he was the owner of a brand agency in Shenzhen.

Ye Li obviously underestimated the implementation of the policy. After the release mechanism of the reference price of second-hand housing was introduced, many banks in Shenzhen acted quickly, saying that the housing mortgage loan would be issued according to the reference price of second-hand housing as an important basis.

According to the 21st century economic report, Everbright Bank took the lead in issuing a document saying that according to the notice of Shenzhen housing and Construction Bureau on establishing the release mechanism of reference price for second-hand housing transactions and regulatory requirements, the transaction price of second-hand housing issued by the housing and Construction Bureau will be used as the reference for mortgage loans.

Since then, China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China, among the four major banks, have followed suit one after another. Mortgage loans have been further tightened and the loan ratio has been reduced, which is a "certainty" fact.

The most direct effect of the tightening of mortgage loans is that the leverage that buyers can use becomes lower. "The down payment from 30% to 50% is directly changed. Customers are very anxious, especially those who have just completed the transaction. They are so busy that they can't get back to wechat." Ye Li pointed out.

After the mortgage loan was strictly controlled, the Shenzhen government investigated the illegal entry of operating loans into the property market at the same time.

It is reported that since November last year, a commercial bank has been tightening up business loans. After the implementation of Shenzhen's second-hand house price reference mechanism, the bank has intensified its efforts to investigate the use of operating loan funds.

Recently, the commercial bank found that some customers obtained loans by registering shell companies and making false business traces, and eventually the funds flowed into the property market. For this illegal behavior, the bank withdraws loans from customers and limits customers to settle the loans within 7 working days, otherwise it will sue or recover the collateral.

In addition, according to the 21st century economic report, the reporter learned from a number of financial intermediaries that some commercial banks in Shenzhen have begun to implement the requirement that individuals applying for housing mortgage loans can only approve loans after six months.

Where is Shenzhen's property market going?

To control the capital flowing into the real estate market has an immediate impact on the market. According to the latest data released by the Shenzhen real estate intermediary Association, 362 sets of second-hand housing online signatures (including self-service online signatures) in Shenzhen from February 15 to February 21 decreased by 78.3% month on month.

Despite the impact of the Spring Festival, the wait-and-see sentiment in the market has indeed become strong.

Xie Linfeng, general manager of Haibei looking for a house, told the 21st century economic report that many house buyers would not rush out in the face of unclear policies and regulations, because first, the implementation of the new policies will increase the cost of purchasing houses. In addition, if strictly implemented, then in the long run, house prices will certainly be affected. "In this way, three to six months will be a wait-and-see period."

Obviously, the official purpose is to control the financial leverage in the real estate sector to stabilize the housing price and stabilize the market. After all, Shenzhen's high housing prices will indeed reduce the attraction of Shenzhen to talents.

According to the data of leyoujia Research Center, in 2020, the average transaction price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen is 66045 yuan / m2, up 10% year-on-year. To each month, only August to September showed a slight decline; in December, the average transaction price rose to 70800 yuan / m2, the highest in the whole year.

According to a report on population migration and urbanization development in China in 2019 released by Jingdong Digital Technology Research Institute, the population outflow proportion of first tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will reach 1.13%, 0.95%, 1.05% and 2.56% respectively in 2018.

As for this phenomenon, Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Jingdong Institute of science and technology, said that the important reason for the outflow of population in first tier cities is the high housing prices. For example, although Shenzhen is a paradise for entrepreneurs, high housing prices make it hard for the general income group to bear.

For the young people in Shenzhen, many of them would choose to leave if they did not have the hope of settling down in Shenzhen.

Lin Yuan was a test engineer of a leading science and technology company in Shenzhen. He graduated from a 985 University in Beijing. After struggling for several years in Shenzhen, she finally left Shenzhen in 2020 to return to a provincial capital city in the West. "She saved enough down payment, but after the epidemic, house prices in Shenzhen rose a lot, and finally found that I could only afford a place very far away from the company."

Of course, stabilizing house prices not only depends on reducing the expectations of the demand side, but also on the supply side.

In view of this, Shenzhen officials have repeatedly said that they will continue to increase supply, accelerate the construction of a multi-level and wide coverage housing security system with dual tracks of talent housing and affordable housing, so as to make the achievements of housing reform benefit more and more citizens.

In 2018, Shenzhen issued a reform document to systematically build a "4 + 2 + 2 + 2" housing supply and security system for market commercial housing, talent housing, affordable commercial housing and public rental housing, and strive to form a "1 + 3 + n" housing system, and put forward the development goal of raising 1.7 million housing units and not less than 1 million public housing units by 2035.

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