Interpretation: China'S Purchasing Manager Index Continued To Stay In The Boom Zone In February

On February 28, 2021, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.

In February, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Manager index, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 50.6%, 51.4% and 51.6%, respectively, down 0.7%, 1.0 and 1.2 percentage points compared with the previous month, and remained above the prosperity and drought line for 12 consecutive months. China's economy continued to expand in general.

1. The expansion of purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry slows down

In February, the PMI of manufacturing industry was 50.6%, higher than the critical point. This year's Spring Festival holiday sunset is in the middle of February. Holiday factors have a great impact on the production and operation of enterprises in this month. The market activity of the manufacturing industry has declined, and the prosperity level has dropped compared with that of last month. Main features of the month:

First, the pace of expansion of production and demand has slowed down. The production index and new order index were 51.9% and 51.5% respectively, 1.6% and 0.8% lower than that of the previous month. The expansion of both sides of the manufacturing industry's production and demand weakened, but remained in the expansion range. From the industry situation, the prosperity of the manufacturing industry remained basically stable, and the production index and new order index of most industries were higher than the critical point. Among them, the production index of pharmaceutical, general equipment, electrical machinery equipment and other industries is higher than that of the manufacturing industry as a whole, and the index of new orders is above 55.0%, indicating that the expansion of production and demand in related industries is fast.

Second, the import and export scenery has declined. This month, the new export order index and import index were 48.8% and 49.6%, respectively, lower than 1.4% and 0.2% of the previous month. Affected by the slowdown of enterprise production and purchasing activities during the Spring Festival, the foreign trade business of manufacturing industry decreased compared with that of last month. From the perspective of market expectation, the expected index of production and operation activities of export enterprises is 60.8%, which is in the high prosperity range, indicating that most manufacturing export enterprises are still optimistic about the recent foreign trade situation.

Third, the price index continued to run at a high level. Affected by the continuous upward trend of international commodity prices, the purchasing price index of main raw materials this month was 66.7%, higher than 60.0% for four consecutive months. From the perspective of the industry, the purchase price index of major raw materials in petroleum processing, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, nonferrous metal smelting and calendering processing, electrical machinery and equipment and other industries all exceeded 70.0%, and the pressure of enterprise procurement cost continued to increase. At the same time, the rise in the purchase price of raw materials helped to increase the price of push out factories. The ex factory price index of this month was 1.3 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, accounting for 58.5%, which is a higher level in the near future.

Fourth, the prosperity level of large enterprises has remained stable. The PMI of large enterprises was 52.2%, slightly higher than that of last month by 0.1 percentage points, indicating that large enterprises maintained stable expansion. The impact of the Spring Festival holiday on small and medium-sized enterprises is more obvious. This month's PMI was 49.6% and 48.3%, respectively, lower than 1.8% and 1.1% of the previous month, and the production and operation activities of enterprises slowed down compared with the previous month.

Fifthly, the enterprise's business is expected to be better. This month, the expected index of enterprise production and operation activities rose to 59.2%, 1.3 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. From the perspective of industry situation, the expected production and operation indexes of general equipment, special equipment, automobile, computer communication electronic equipment and instruments are all in the high prosperity range. Some survey enterprises reflect that March will enter the peak season of production and marketing, market demand is expected to pick up, and enterprises have stronger confidence in the development of the industry after the festival.

The survey results also show that the proportion of enterprises reflecting high labor cost and insufficient labor supply this month are 36.2% and 18.3%, respectively, which are the recent high points, indicating that some manufacturing enterprises have employment gap and the pressure of labor cost has increased.

2. Non manufacturing business activity index fell

In February, the non manufacturing business activity index was 51.4%, lower than 1.0 percentage points of the previous month, and the expansion pace of non manufacturing industry slowed down.

The expansion of the service industry has weakened. The business activity index of the service industry was 50.8%, lower than 0.3% of the previous month, still higher than the critical point, indicating that the service industry continued to expand, but the range was narrowed. From the perspective of industry situation, the business activity index of retail, catering, entertainment and other industries closely related to residents' consumption is in the expansion range and higher than that of last month, and the business activities of the industry are relatively active; the business activity index of telecommunication, radio and television satellite transmission service, monetary and financial service industry is higher than 58.0%, and the business volume maintains rapid growth. At the same time, the business activity index of accommodation, capital market services, leasing and business services was below the critical point. From the perspective of market expectation, the expected index of service industry business activity is 63.2%, higher than 7.9 percentage points of last month. Enterprises are optimistic about the development prospect of service industry market in the near future.

The outlook of the construction industry has declined. The business activity index of the construction industry was 54.7%, 5.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, indicating that the construction progress of the construction industry has slowed down due to the impact of Spring Festival holidays and weather factors. From the perspective of market demand and expectation, the index of new orders and the expected index of business activities were 53.4% and 68.2%, respectively, higher than 2.2% and 14.6% of the previous month, indicating that the market demand of the construction industry has increased in the near future, and the industry development is expected to be better.

3. Comprehensive PMI output index keeps expanding

In February, the composite PMI output index was 51.6%, lower than 1.2% of the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises slowed down this month. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index which constitute the composite PMI output index are 51.9% and 51.4% respectively.