After The New Deal Of Shanghai Property Market

On the evening of March 3, Shanghai Municipal Commission of housing and urban rural development, Shanghai Municipal Bureau of planning and natural resources, and Shanghai Housing Administration Bureau jointly issued opinions on promoting the steady and healthy development of the city's real estate market (hereinafter referred to as "the seven new Shanghai articles"), in which one of the "new commercial housing purchased according to the preferential purchase policy can be transferred after five years of online signing of the purchase contract" triggered the market Attention. This is also the first time that Shanghai has explicitly put forward restrictions on the sale of new houses.

At present, Shanghai only has no home purchase points system, known as the "priority policy", but the specific details have to wait for the official follow-up explanation.

"Five year sales" is the most concerned policy of "new Shanghai seven items", which is similar to the regulation policy issued before the Spring Festival in Hangzhou. On January 27, Hangzhou issued a regulation and control policy, one of which is that "within the scope of the city's purchase restriction, if the winning lot rate of notarized lot drawing for public sale of newly-built commercial housing is less than or equal to 10%, it shall not be transferred within 5 years from the date of obtaining the real estate certificate". Like Hangzhou, Shanghai is also in the first-hand housing market overheating after the sacrifice of "sales restrictions", to curb investment, speculators into the property market.

Combined with the recent events of the policy intensive introduction in some big cities, Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Research Institute, believes that this year, the regulation curtain for comprehensively solving the housing problems in big cities has officially opened. Many people, including consultants and intermediaries, agreed with Yan Yuejin that Shanghai's current regulation is to stabilize house prices and prevent the market from overheating.

Yan Yuejin pointed out that the point of "priority buyers selling for five years" is actually to make up for the previous point purchase policy; at the same time, it is also a reference to the practice of other cities, which sets the conditions for limiting the sale of housing resources with priority subscription, so as to block out those speculators who want to obtain housing resources through preferential purchase channels. Similarly, this can also reduce the market expectations of those who prefer to buy properties with more customers.

High premium land auction for real estate companies

Another person in the industry believes that Shanghai has increased the regulation of the property market again after the start of the year of the ox. the fuse may lie in the fact that the land market is hot first, and there are high premium plots, worrying about the land market temperature or passing it to the sales port. This is mainly to stabilize house prices and curb market overheating.

On February 20, rongjianfa consortium won a pure homestead in Putuo District with a total price of 6.452 billion yuan, with a floor price of 84300 yuan / square meter and a premium rate of 36.15%. The plot is covered by rail transit, with a total construction area of less than 80000 square meters, and there is no self-sustaining requirement. It can be said that it is a real scarce plot. However, to the east of this plot is a 3.06 billion yuan homestead acquired by Dahua Group in December last year. At that time, the floor price was only 47400 yuan per square meter. The land price nearly doubled in two months, and the unit price of the surrounding second-hand houses was close to 60000 yuan / m2. "Flour is more expensive than bread", although it can not completely point to the booming land market, it must be that the regional plate is overheated.

Soon after, "Shanghai Putuo" wechat public account released a message. In view of the high premium transaction of the land auction plot, Putuo District government immediately interviewed the relevant responsible persons of rongchuang Shanghai and the project company, and the interview was presided over by the relevant responsible persons of the district planning and Resources Bureau and the District Housing Management Bureau. During the interview, the district government reiterated the work requirements of the state and the city's real estate regulation, indicating that it will unswervingly implement the determination of "the house is used for living, not for speculation", so as to achieve the goal of "stabilizing the land price, stabilizing the house price and stabilizing the expectation". It is clearly stated that the transferee should fully realize the seriousness of the policy, make full ideological preparation and reasonably adjust the expectation.

However, where there is a "price limit" city, there is a common phenomenon: the first-hand new market often has the price hanging upside down, there is room for speculation. The government can lock in the holding period and increase the cost of real estate speculation to deter speculative demand. In order to reduce the market expectations, the "new Shanghai seven" also put forward the land price limit bidding. Industry insiders believe that the price of floor determines the future price, especially the price of flour and bread is close to each other, the market is expected to rise, and buyers are willing to enter the market. Land price limits help to stabilize expectations. In the future, relevant land acquisition methods will be formulated to determine who can take the land after the price limit is reached.

In addition, the supply plan of the leased land is made separately, and the land for sale is separated. Previously, the two were incorporated into the supply plan, but the leased land could not form an effective supply. This can fully ensure the sufficient and stable land for sale, and at the same time, sufficient supply also helps to shift the land price.

The traditional sales peak season of xiaoyangchun is coming, and the market trend has attracted much attention. Similar to the situation in Hangzhou's property market, although Hangzhou imposed a "big ban" on property speculation funds at the end of January, it was still difficult to stop a wave of red market lottery winning rate less than 10% a year ago. After Shanghai's "121" policy, the phenomenon of many people wagging numbers in the first-hand real estate market also appeared.

In order to prevent the property market from overheating, Shanghai continues to make up for its weaknesses in the regulatory policies, and draws lessons from the practices of other hot cities, emphasizing strict implementation first, and then looking at the effect. It is not ruled out that there are a series of regulatory measures to continue to squeeze speculative demand.

Li Xiaoxiao, a senior analyst at Tongce Research Institute, pointed out that the second and seventh articles of the "new Shanghai seven articles" are concerned about. Other policies on rectifying market order and strengthening market management have been published before. In this document, only strict implementation of policies is emphasized.

Article 2 price limit bidding has already been implemented in other cities. At present, some hot spots in Shanghai are facing price inversion, and the government's strict implementation of price limit policy faces great market pressure. In the process of land transfer, setting the house price in advance and bidding the land price independently by the real estate enterprises will help to control the land price in the early stage and achieve the purpose of stabilizing the house price.

Article 7 the scope of housing sales restriction only includes "new commercial housing purchased with preferential purchase policy". At present, only three real estate projects in Shanghai are under the pilot scoring priority policy, and the situation of visiting and subscribing is general, which has little impact on the market expectation.

Strengthen intermediary management and control

In the "new Shanghai seven articles", we should further strengthen the intermediary management and control the normative behavior of the intermediary market. Shanghai has entered the stock market, and intermediaries play an important role in the transaction. Through controlling and standardizing the behavior of intermediary enterprises, the intention of speculation can be restrained. It can be seen that this year's property market is mainly to prevent overheating. If the expected effect is not achieved, it is not ruled out to continue to increase the price.

The causes of the real estate market are complex. If the real estate market is too cold or overheated, it is not "imbalance of supply and demand". In recent months, the turnover of 39000 sets of Shanghai second-hand housing market, the intermediary is considered to have a boosting role.

Before the regulation and control, the highest rise in housing prices is in the core area of Shanghai's inner ring, by contrast, the central region is in the stage of supplementary inflation. At the end of last year, the price of a 90 square meter house in a community in central Pudong was more than 6 million yuan. After the Spring Festival, it has risen to 9 million yuan, but it has not been sold. According to the feedback of the intermediary salesman, although the house price has risen to 80000 yuan / m2, there are a lot of people who want to buy a house recently, and there is no suitable house listing.

The reporter of 21st century economic report visited some stores and interviewed some buyers and sellers. He found that because there were intermediaries who monopolized the house supply in the way of exclusive VIP, they gave the owners confidence with high transaction price, and made the owners think that the house could be sold at a better price through some intermediaries, which led to some adhering to the policy to balance the interests of owners and buyers and make the price return to rationality On the contrary, the living environment is worrying.

Intermediary smell sensitive breath, before and after the spring festival only Baoshan Dahua plate, opened 5 intermediary stores. These intermediary stores are in the expansion cycle. It is understood that since the end of last year, such intermediaries as Macalline Aijia, a subsidiary of Red Star Macalline, and yuancui, a franchise brand controlled by fangduo, have gradually expanded from the outer ring road to the urban area and opened large-scale stores since the end of last year.

In order to grab the housing resources, some intermediary stores do not hesitate to promise the owners to sell at a high price, which to a certain extent boosted the rise of house prices. Another intermediary salesman pointed out that "exclusive source" is a kind of monopoly behavior, which leads to the house may not be sold in a short period of time, and there is less room for customers to negotiate prices.

Transaction decline, little Yangchun no longer?

Intermediaries pointed out that the introduction of the new deal shows that the second-hand housing transaction price is mainly stable and tends to be rational. But at present, the price trend needs to be considered; the trading volume has dropped a lot.

"Recently, the market turnover has declined seriously, and the transaction cycle and housing cycle are very long." The above-mentioned intermediary salesman reflects that since the new policy, the transaction cycle and speed of second-hand housing are much slower, but most landlords have a good mentality. Some owners have recently lowered the price by about 0.05% - 0.07%.

In fact, since the second half of last year, the number of second-hand houses in Shanghai has been kept at a high level every month, which has been reduced a lot. At present, the main reasons for the decline are: the inventory is not too much, and the scope and quantity can be seen are also small; after the implementation of the new policy of "121", the value-added tax of second-hand houses is exempted from "2-to-5", and the change of tax and fee also makes it more difficult to sell houses Some intermediaries do exclusive housing, customers are limited to see the house.

Many intermediary store salesmen feedback that whether xiaoyangchun can appear as scheduled or not depends on the market volume and customer reaction in March. As the second-hand housing data in February has not yet been disclosed, but judging from the first-hand house transaction data, I am afraid it is difficult for xiaoyangchun to appear.

According to the third-party data, on March 1, 121 plates in Shanghai had not yet reached a comprehensive rise, and the differences between them were still obvious. According to the data from February 1 to February 21, the number of first-hand house transactions has halved year-on-year.

To be sure, no matter how the follow-up market trend is, Shanghai's attitude of blocking real estate funds from all sides is already obvious. On the same day, the office of the leading group for the steady and healthy development of the real estate market in Hangzhou issued the notice on further standardizing the order of the real estate market, putting forward the requirements of restricting the purchase of legal auction houses and strictly checking the business loans and consumer loans.

The latest regulation and control of Shanghai and Hangzhou is only one month away from the last round of regulation and control, and the policy is released on the same day. A macro background is: at the end of January this year, Ni Hong, Vice Minister of housing and urban rural development, pointed out that the city government should fully understand the importance of maintaining the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and firmly adhere to the principle that houses are used for living It is the positioning of speculation, not to use real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy, and effectively implement the main responsibility of the city. Recently, Ni Hong led a team to Hangzhou, Zhejiang and Wuxi, Jiangsu Province to investigate and supervise the implementation of the long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. He reiterated that "real estate does not stir fry" and does not use real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy. He earnestly implements the main responsibility of the city and ensures the implementation of the decision-making and deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council.

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