Price Jump Of Photovoltaic Silicon Industry Chain Price Conduction Is Not Smooth, Terminal Demand Is Restrained

In the latest week, a share of the photovoltaic plate into the adjustment period.

Wind data shows that the PV index has fallen 8.06% since March 3.

Contrary to the callback trend of the photovoltaic index, the price of raw materials silicon materials in the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain continued to rise.

According to the data of silicon industry branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "Silicon Industry Branch"), polysilicon prices continued to rise last week, with the increase range of 4% - 5% for compound feed, single crystal compact material and single crystal cauliflower material. According to the data of solar room, a photovoltaic think tank, recently, a reference quotation of 110 yuan / kg for silicon materials has appeared.

The price of silicon materials has been rising in a row in short supply

This round of silicon price rise began in December last year. In the middle of December last year, the price of silicon materials, which had fallen slowly for three months, hit the bottom and recovered.

According to the data released by the silicon industry branch on December 16 last year, the average transaction price of domestic single crystal re feeding was 83700 yuan / ton, and that of single crystal dense material was 81300 yuan / ton. During the week, the transaction price of compound feed, single crystal compact material and single crystal cauliflower material increased slightly (about 1%), while the price of polycrystalline material decreased slightly.

The price of silicon material has been rising since then.

In the three months from mid December to now, the weekly increase of all kinds of silicon materials on the market is as low as 1% and as high as 12%.

As of last week, the average prices of single crystal re feeding, single crystal densification and single crystal cauliflower were 110800 yuan / ton, 108000 yuan / ton and 105300 yuan / ton respectively, with the cumulative price increase of more than 30% in the three months.

"In the first week after the Spring Festival, the price of silicon materials increased by about six or seven yuan, but the enterprises could not get any goods at that time," Ma Yiwei, vice president of solarroom optical storage company, said in an interview with reporters. Research information shows that the supply and demand of silicon materials in the near future is still extremely tense, "whether it is the head of silicon chip enterprises, or small and medium-sized enterprises can not get the goods."

Behind the price rise of silicon materials is the gap between supply and demand.

On the demand side, at the end of last year, downstream enterprises began to stock up for the Spring Festival, and the actual demand increased periodically. Moreover, the production capacity of silicon wafers with expanded production capacity was released, which also stimulated the growth of demand.

The silicon wafer production capacity expanded in the second half of 2020 will be put into production successively after entering 2021. The silicon industry branch once said at the end of February that "the release rate of production capacity of silicon wafer enterprises is far faster than expected".

According to Ma Yiwei, there is a one-time demand for purchasing basic silicon stock for normal production in the newly expanded silicon production capacity, which is "generally prepared for half a month or a month".

On the supply side, according to the data of the silicon industry branch, as of the beginning of 2021, the production capacity of solar grade silicon materials is about 560000 tons, including nearly 100000 tons overseas.

As silicon wafer enterprises sign long-term contracts or strategic cooperation one after another in 2020, more than 80% of silicon production capacity in the industry has been locked by long-term orders of enterprises, and there is less spot circulation in the silicon market.

"At the end of January and the beginning of February, there was no inventory, and the middlemen had very little goods. In order to guarantee the performance of long orders, mainstream manufacturers have basically not expected the middlemen. Leading enterprises will also urge the silicon materials of silicon material factories. There is basically no inventory in the upstream and downstream. There's no middleman. " In a survey summary of Tongwei shares (600438. SH) obtained by the reporter on March 7, Tongwei related people introduced the shortage of silicon materials in the near future.

Although the silicon material enterprises in the supply side will also expand their production significantly in 2020, due to the 14-18 months of silicon production capacity landing period, the expansion of silicon production capacity cannot be synchronized with the expansion of silicon wafer production capacity. Therefore, the effective supply increment of silicon materials in 2021 is very small, far less than the demand increment.

It is worth mentioning that in December last year, the market had reached the expectation on the supply and demand tension of silicon materials. This expectation stimulated the bullish mentality of the industrial chain and the stock mentality of the industrial chain, and then the downstream enterprises hoarded and scrambled for materials, which in turn boosted the price of silicon materials.

"It's normal for a silicon wafer factory to hold inventory for half a month to a month." Ma Yiwei told reporters that when silicon wafer enterprises are particularly optimistic about the price of silicon materials, they are certainly willing to hoard more, "for example, enterprises may change the stocking period to one and a half months to two months.".

According to the data of the silicon industry branch, the number of domestic silicon material enterprises with new orders increased significantly last week, almost all of the enterprises in production signed new orders, and the new orders of first-line enterprises had basically signed until April.

Rising pressure on downstream digestion costs

In fact, the impact of silicon price rise has been transmitted to the downstream of the industrial chain. After the price rise of silicon materials, some downstream enterprises have made corresponding adjustments to product specifications or product prices this year to offset the cost increase brought about by silicon material price increase.

Take the silicon wafer industry as an example, at present, the main manufacturers have raised their prices substantially to cover the rising cost of silicon materials. Last week, monocrystalline and polycrystalline silicon chip prices are still rising.

In February this year, Longji (601012. SH) raised the quotation of M10 and M6 silicon chips twice in a row on the 5th and 26th. On February 26, Longji's quotation for M10 and M6 silicon wafers was 4.44 yuan / piece and 3.65 yuan / piece, respectively. Compared with the price of 3.9 yuan / chip and 3.25 yuan / chip a month ago, the cumulative increase of the two price increases of M10 and M6 wafers reached 13.8% and 12.3% respectively.

In addition, Longji also reduced the thickness of some silicon wafers in February to reduce the cost of a single chip. On February 5, while adjusting the price of silicon wafers, Longji reduced the standard thickness of G1 and M6 silicon wafers from 175 μ m to 170 μ M.

Another silicon giant, Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. (002129. SZ), also issued a proposal on February 23 to reduce the thickness of silicon wafers to ease the cost pressure of downstream battery and module customers.

According to Zhonghuan's experience, if the price of silicon material increases by 10 yuan / kg, the corresponding cost of silicon chip will increase by 0.18 yuan / piece, and the thickness of 18 μ m should be reduced to keep the unit price of silicon chip unchanged. The thickness of silicon wafer is reduced from 175 μ m to 160 μ m, which can cover the price increase of 8 yuan / kg of polycrystalline silicon material, and reduce the cost pressure of downstream industry chain.

The calculation shows that thinning can enhance the profit of silicon wafer and offset the rising cost of silicon material. According to the calculation of Shengang securities, the price of silicon increases by 19.8%. If the silicon wafer is not thinned, the cost of silicon wafer will increase by about 12%, and the output of silicon wafer can be increased by about 3% by reducing the thickness of 5 μ M. the cost increase caused by the increase of silicon material by about 2.1% is offset, that is, the cost increases by about 10% and the gross profit margin increases by 1.2%.

The relevant person of Longji shares told reporters, "whether the price of (silicon) will be raised in the future depends on the price of silicon material," if the silicon material further rises, it is possible. " "In terms of thinning, 170 specifications are still the main specifications at present, because if further thinning, there may be problems in supporting the industrial chain."

The sharp rise in the price of upstream silicon materials has also been conducted to the battery. Last week, China's leading single crystal battery enterprises announced the prices in March, and the prices of various sizes of battery chips are still rising. Other battery manufacturers in the market also rose to varying degrees.

However, the price rising signal that battery manufacturers continue to transmit to downstream has not been generally accepted. "The price difference between the transaction price and the quoted price of the battery is relatively large. At present, the profit margin of battery is very low. We estimate that by the end of March, there is a possibility that the profits of battery chips will turn negative. " Ma Yiwei said.

It is reported that some battery manufacturers may reduce production in late March.

In the component sector, some institutions have found that due to the sharp rise of silicon materials and the continuous strength of component auxiliary materials, large component manufacturers have recently started to increase the component quotation of new orders, and the price of old orders with lower price in the early stage has been renegotiated.

"Due to the recent rise in the price of raw materials, the purchasing cost of our corresponding products will increase. We will adjust the quotation when bidding. " Jingao Technology (002459. SZ) related people told reporters.

Longji shares related people also told reporters, "now component manufacturers have mentioned a relatively high level, component manufacturers and customers will have some game process.".

It is reported that the production schedule of component manufacturers may decline in the second quarter. Solarroom data shows that at present, the net interest rate of component manufacturers has been in a loss state.

The end demand of industry chain price rising game is restrained

Since March, the market of silicon material is still hot.

"Silicon wafer enterprises are full of production at present. Now all over the country are scrambling for goods. What manufacturers care about is not the price, but the quantity. " Silicon industry branch relevant personage is introduced to the reporter.

So, when can the price of silicon materials rise for three months?

At present, the industry and institutions generally expect that the silicon material supply in 2021 will continue to be tight. Many institutions have pointed out that, based on the production cycle, the actual new production capacity of silicon materials this year is less, and the production is mainly concentrated at the end of the year.

In terms of production time, according to the announcement of silicon material plant, 40000 tons of Tongwei Yunnan Baoshan and 35000 tons of Sichuan Leshan will be put into production at the end of October 2021 and December 2021, respectively; 35000 tons of Daquan new energy in Xinjiang will be put into production at the end of December 2021; and 30000 tons of Asian silicon industry in Qinghai will be put into production at the end of June 2021.

CITIC Securities pointed out that according to the actual operation of the silicon material plant, it will take 3-6 months from capacity input to stable output of a high proportion of single crystal materials. Therefore, at present, although there is production capacity in 2021, there is no actual capacity to supply to the market.

CITIC Securities predicts that the global new PV installed capacity will reach about 165gw in 2021. Considering the capacity ratio of 1:1.2, it is estimated that the corresponding module demand of the global new PV installed capacity will be 198gw. In the case of 2900 tons of silicon material for a single GW module, the silicon material demand corresponding to the module scale is about 580000 tons, slightly higher than the silicon material supply of this year mentioned above (about 560000 tons).

"Considering the supply of granular materials, the silicon material link is still in short supply or tight balance. We expect the tight supply and demand of silicon materials will continue to 2022, exceeding market expectations. " CITIC Securities said.

Therefore, in view of the tight supply and the arrival of new production capacity at the end of the year, some views believe that the price of silicon material may not fall until the fourth quarter.

However, there are also market views that the price of silicon materials may fall back as early as the second quarter. Western securities, for example, pointed out last week that the price of silicon materials may have a certain correction at some stage in the second quarter.

"From the perspective of supply, it is possible that the price of silicon will ease in the fourth quarter. However, as the price rise of silicon materials will continue to transmit downstream and ultimately affect the demand, if we consider from the demand side, the time point of silicon material price falling may be earlier than the silicon material production capacity Ma Yiwei told reporters that the price of silicon materials may fall as early as the end of May.

"The component sector has a low acceptance of price increases, and the net profit of components has been in a state of loss. We expect that by the end of March, the profit of the battery will also turn negative. Once the profit of cell chip is squeezed out, the price of silicon chip will not rise. In this case, if the silicon material continues to rise, it will squeeze the profits of the silicon link. Finally, when silicon wafer companies cut production because of reduced profits, the price of silicon materials will go up Ma Yiwei said.

Longji stock related people also told reporters that the silicon material price is relatively high in the short term, "it is possible that after the terminal demand reacts, there will be a reaction under the pressure (silicon material price)".

In an interview, a new analyst of the seller's electricity said that the industry chain is now gaming to increase prices. "At present, all links of the photovoltaic industry chain are still playing games. Price transmission is not simple and smooth, and the pattern of each link is not the same. From silicon material to battery chip, the conduction of price rise is relatively strong, while the cell and module do not have the ability to fully transmit the cost pressure. " The analyst said.

CITIC Securities pointed out that after the price rise of the industrial chain entered the game period, the transmission mechanism of component price to terminal power station was not smooth, and began to restrain the terminal demand to a certain extent, and the operating rate of related products around the component end also declined. After the industrial chain price finds a new balance point, the demand is expected to be released again, but the capacity utilization rate of key links still needs to be tracked in detail.

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