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Market Analysis Of Polyester, Polyamide And Ammonia, Three Major Chemical Fibers

2021/3/18 10:50:00 1

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Introduction: supported by the global macro-economy and favorable crude oil, the price of polyester filament continued to rise to the high level in October 19 from the Spring Festival to March. In addition to polyester filament, chemical fiber products such as nylon filament and spandex were all boosted. However, due to the different growth of chemical fiber products, the downstream stock situation was also slightly different. At present, according to the market feedback, after the polyester and polyamide filament stopped rising, the price of spandex fiber increased However, there may be further increase in prices, news release, downstream psychology changes, the above three chemical fibers continue to callback or continue to rise?

Comparison chart of recent price of polyester, polyamide and spandex unit: yuan / ton

time	Polyester filament poy150d / 196f	Nylon filament poy86d / 24F	Spandex 40d
2021/1/4	five thousand and nine hundred	fourteen thousand and six hundred	thirty-nine thousand
2021/3/15	six thousand two hundred and twenty-five	seventeen thousand and four hundred	sixty-five thousand
2020/3/15	seven thousand eight hundred and seventy-five	thirteen thousand and two hundred	twenty-nine thousand and five hundred
Month on month this year	+5.51%	+19.18%	+66.67%
corresponding period of last year	-25.08%	+10.61%	+32.20%

Statistics show that: polyester, polyamide, ammonia three kinds of chemical fibers have increased compared with the beginning of this year, of which spandex has the largest increase, reaching 66.67%, while polyester's growth is relatively low at 5.51%; compared with the same period last year, nylon and spandex are both up, while polyester is down by 25.08%. From the above three fibers, polyester filament market is relatively weak compared with the other two chemical fibers.

List of raw materials and supply of polyester filament, spandex and nylon filament

varieties	raw material	supply	summary
Polyester filament	In terms of ethylene glycol, the overall supply and demand is fair in the short term. With the expected release of new production capacity and the smooth arrival of overseas goods, the supply and demand pattern of ethylene glycol is unfavorable. However, the processing cost of PTA, the main raw material, is currently between 240-330 yuan / t in the near future, and its own supply and demand is expected to be tight, so the processing cost is still expected to be improved	With the start-up of more than 90% and the increase of supply, the factory's inventory has accumulated slightly, and the inventory has been relatively high for more than a month. With the small decline of raw material end, the profit of poy150d / 48F is more than 1000 yuan	In the current situation of high inventory, high profit and low demand, the price of polyester filament is slightly reduced or reasonable
Nylon filament	The prices of caprolactam and pure benzene at the raw material end became weaker, the spot supply was abundant, the polymerization plants were mostly negative, the high price shipment was hindered, the market atmosphere was weakened, and the spot price was decreased, and the support of raw material end was limited	The start of work is around 86%, which is already at a high level, and the supply is increasing. As the orders in the early stage are still being delivered, the enterprises have no inventory pressure, and the profit of the industry is meager	Under the guidance of the main factors, the supply of nylon filament increases, and the price may decrease slightly with the raw material end
spandex	In terms of bdo-ptmeg, due to unstable operation of foreign units and limited supply, the market offer remained at a high level. In April, there was maintenance expectation at the downstream demand side, and the demand was limited. At present, the profit was nearly 20000 tons / ton, and there was strong resistance to high prices in the downstream	The operating load of the factory is relatively high, which is about 90%. However, the inventory of the factory is still at a low level, and the profit is fair, but there is still a high price for the transaction of new orders	Low inventory, spandex prices in the short term or no significant decline is expected, but do not rule out April raw material end callback, spandex supply loose after there is a callback expected

At present, the starting rate of terminal weaving is more than 70%. Since the Spring Festival, downstream looms have been back to work, and the prosperity of the industry is steadily improving. However, due to the sharp rise of various fiber raw materials after the Spring Festival, the downstream concentrated preparation, some of them were prepared until the end of March, and most of them had been prepared to the middle of April. Although the downstream orders were successively issued, both the internal and external orders were subject to price reasons, resulting in the continuous running in of new orders Generally speaking, the upstream and downstream weaving enterprises are optimistic about the future market. It is expected that orders will be issued one after another around April. The demand inflection point needs to pay attention to the order situation from the end of March to April.

To sum up, under the current supply and demand situation of the three major chemical fibers, polyester and nylon still have downward expectations in March, spandex may maintain stable operation in the short term, and a variety of chemical fiber prices will explore or affect the downstream purchasing mentality. However, considering the global macro-economy and the international crude oil trend, the downward range of chemical fiber may be limited. If the macro-economic support is favorable, it is not ruled out that chemical fibers may have Expectations were further raised.