Price Transmission Terminal: TV Panel And Chip "Dancing Together"

Since the second half of 2020, the panel industry has started a long period of price rise that has not been seen in a decade. In the first quarter of 2021, the rising curve is still strong, and the price rising tide will continue to run through the second quarter.

According to the latest survey of trendforce Jibang consulting, the price of TV panel has risen since June last year, and the supply of IC components used in the whole machine assembly has been squeezed out by the capacity of the wafer factory, and the supply is tight. The price of 32 inch target size has risen by 134%.

This is the result of the superposition of multiple factors. Under the epidemic situation, the demand for TV is strong. However, the production capacity of LCD screen for main TV supply is insufficient. In addition, the shortage of chip parts has led to the further sharp rise of panel price, which also has an impact on the gross profit margin of TV brands.

In the case of booming, there are uncertain changes in epidemic situation, logistics and core shortage, which also tests the supply chain management ability of panel manufacturers and end brand manufacturers.

Chip shortage intensifies panel price rise

First of all, from the demand side, with the continuous increase in demand for remote office, online life and sports events, the whole machine market will usher in growth.

According to trendforce, the global TV shipment is expected to reach 223 million units in 2021, with an annual growth of 3.1%. In addition to the popularity driven by the housing economy last year, the demand of emerging countries will gradually grow. In addition, the European Cup 2020 and the Tokyo Olympic Games will be postponed to this summer, which will help to boost demand for television, whether or not live viewing is open.

Looking at the supply side, at present, TV screens are mainly LCD (liquid crystal) screens. However, in 2021, the production capacity of LCD screens is limited. On the one hand, Samsung and LG are gradually withdrawing from the LCD market. On the other hand, some domestic production lines are still climbing, and the capacity supply still needs time.

At the same time, the gap of upstream chip components has not yet eased, which has also exacerbated the rise in the panel.

Ye bichun, a consulting analyst with trendforce group, told 21st century economic report: "TV panels are in short supply. Besides driving IC, they also contain TCON. At present, it seems that the terminal demand is very high, but at present, the wafer production capacity and sealing and testing capacity are very short. When the demand can not be met, the customers have drawn a lot of goods, resulting in a greater gap between supply and demand. "

Previously, several analysts pointed out to reporters that the shortage of production capacity of core components in the upstream of semiconductors has also affected the supply of TV panels this year. The shortage of driving IC and glass substrate is limited by the production capacity shortage of 8-inch wafers. In addition, the unexpected power failure of NEG factory will continue in the first quarter.

In terms of OLED TV panel, the decline has stopped, because OLED accounts for a small proportion of TV panel, the total demand is not high, and there is no shortage of panel supply. Next, there will be more production capacity for large-size OLEDs. TCL Huaxing has planned the production line of printed OLED in Guangzhou. According to reports, LGD disclosed recently that the company is considering expanding the production capacity of OLED panels in Guangzhou in the second half of this year, and it is expected to invest more than 2 trillion won (about 12 billion yuan or more).

But the chip shortage has also affected its price trend. Fan Boyu, vice president of trendforce group consulting research, told reporters: "due to the serious shortage of components, the falling pressure of TV OLED panel has been greatly reduced, and the expected decline is even beginning to be flat in convergence."

In addition, due to the shortage of chips, the price of driving IC itself has also increased. Some people in the industry told reporters that the current price increase of driving IC is about 10% - 15%, which further increases the cost of the panel.

The second half of the year or supply and demand balance

Overall, the rise of LCD TV panel in the first half of this year will not stop. In the recent financial report, TCL founder Li Dongsheng mentioned the price trend of panel. He said: "due to the shortage of chip and glass supply and the delay of new production capacity, the supply and demand of LCD panel market continues to be tight. It is expected that the product price in the first half of the year will remain firm, and the supply and demand will be roughly balanced in the second half. More LTPS products are entering the vehicle and it industry market, and the supply and demand tend to be balanced. "

Previously, Li Dongsheng analyzed in an interview with reporters that semiconductor display and integrated circuit are cyclical products. In the first half of last year, supply was oversupplied and the price pressure was high. In the second half of last year, it began to be relatively short. It is difficult to predict the cyclical changes. However, it is relatively certain that the supply shortage will continue in the first half of this year. In the whole year, the supply is likely to be tight. There are ups and downs, for enterprises, how to ride through the cyclical fluctuations of the industry is a big challenge.

In the case of resource shortage, large enterprises can often occupy the priority position and become the supply priority, and the Matthew effect in the market is more obvious.

Trendforce Jibang consulting further pointed out that from the perspective of brand factories, the rising trend of panel will make it more and more difficult for white brands and second and third tier small brands to obtain sufficient resources. Since last year, the shipment volume has gradually declined. On the other hand, large brands are easy to obtain the right of priority purchase because of the large and stable demand for panel resources and materials. Looking at the market share of the top five TV brands last year, Samsung, LG, TCL, Hisense and Xiaomi exceeded 60% for the first time, and is expected to further increase to 62% this year. The trend of Evergrande, the big brand, is becoming more and more obvious.

With the further expansion of panel price increase, the pressure of terminal manufacturers has doubled, and the price rise has also been transmitted to terminal TV products. However, there is no significant price fluctuation at present, and enterprises are also starting to deal with it.

On March 25, senior executives of TCL electronics said at the financial report conference that since last year, the panel has been rising, with a 65 inch increase of 34% and a 75 inch increase of about 13%. The company is also taking measures to reduce the impact of gross profit rate and cope with the rise of raw materials by adjusting product structure and strengthening medium and high-end products.

At the same time, Jibang consulting also mentioned that the brand side is also turning to large size and OLED to face the price rise. On the one hand, small size has increased rapidly, and brands have shifted their products to sizes above 55 inches (inclusive) in order to avoid risks.

On the other hand, due to the soaring price of LCD and the narrowing of the price difference between OLED and LCD, the survey indicates that the price difference between the two has further narrowed to 2.2 times in the first quarter of this year. At the same time, the production capacity of LGD on the supply side in Guangzhou's 8.5 generation line has been increased. It is estimated that the shipment of OLED TV will grow by 72% this year, reaching 6.76 million units, which will become the preferred choice for high-end products of this year's brand layout.

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