Domestic Spot Price Of Polyester Staple Fiber Fell Sharply In March

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring, the domestic spot price of polyester staple fiber fell in March. As of March 31, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 7140 yuan / ton, down 9.98% compared with the price of 7931 at the beginning of March, and increased by 19.63% year-on-year. All manufacturers' quotations have been greatly increased by 700-1000 yuan / ton.

In the futures market, the main staple fiber Futures (2105) closed at 6879 on March 31, down 1492 or 17.84% from 8304 at the beginning of March. In March, the international oil price surged higher at the beginning of the month, and then fell all the way. The high point dropped by nearly 13%. The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol, raw materials of staple fiber, fell sharply.

The production and sales of polyester staple fiber dropped sharply, and the futures and spot prices dropped continuously. At present, the supply and demand situation of staple fiber has not been reversed. After the price plummeted, the profit of the industry has been compressed continuously, and the processing gap has been reduced to a low level, and the short-term downward space may be limited.

2、 Factors affecting prices

1. PTA: in March, the domestic PTA spot market price dropped from the high at the beginning of the month. As of March 31, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 4413 yuan / ton, which was 6.96% lower than that at the beginning of the month and 37.43% higher than that at the beginning of the month. Profits have been declining to the extent of production loss of most PTA units, resulting in many sets of PTA units choosing to shut down for maintenance. The number of new cases in Europe increased, and the blockade measures were restarted. The market was worried that the blocked vaccination process in Europe would damage the economic recovery and fuel demand. The crude oil fell sharply, dragging down the focus of the chemical industry market and weakening the support for PTA cost.

2. Ethylene glycol: in March, the price of domestic ethylene glycol spot market rose and fell. As of March 31, the average spot market price was 5333 yuan / ton, down 11.85% from the beginning of the month, and up 58.42% year-on-year. The European epidemic control policy and other factors affected the crude oil price diving, ethylene also entered the callback range, the price fluctuated downward, the cost side support was weak, the downstream chemical fiber production and sales were relatively light, the shipment volume continued to be low, and the supply and demand side pattern was not good. Judging from the market trend over the years, March and April were all bottoming out, but this year, affected by the early speculation, the price decline trend was more obvious Obviously.

3. Polyester yarn: the domestic polyester yarn market price dropped slightly in March, and there were signs of stabilization at the end of the month. As of March 31, the average market price of polyester yarn was 14266 yuan / ton, down 3.39% compared with the beginning of the month, and increased by 5.37% year on year. At present, the raw material inventory of yarn enterprises is mostly available to the first and middle of April. Before the last ten days of April, they mainly complete the pre-sale orders before and after the Spring Festival, and the enterprises' quotation is not active. The spot sales of polyester yarn are weak, the quotation and transaction price touch the top and fall down, the inventory accumulates, and the price is weak.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts believe that international oil prices fell in March, while PTA and ethylene glycol in upstream fell. After the festival, due to the early start of the downstream market, the demand for a large number of stock, domestic staple fiber production and sales and prices continue to rise. At present, the raw material inventory of the weaving mill is high, the terminal market is worried about the trade situation, the order is not as expected, the replenishment intention is weakening, and the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the stock is mainly digested recently. However, with the digestion of raw materials, the downstream will gradually meet the demand for replenishment; in addition, after the continuous decline, the staple fiber profit has dropped to a low level, and there is little room for further decline. At present, the situation of the industrial chain is not clear, and enterprises choose to buy as you go. Staple fiber prices may stop falling later than expected. In the future, short-term polyester staple fiber accumulation pressure is still in, or is still weak shock. However, in the medium term, with the advent of a new round of downstream procurement cycle, processing compression has repair kinetic energy, polyester staple fiber may usher in shock rebound in April.