The Growth Rate Of Guizhou Maotai'S First Quarter Report Reached A New Low Of 117 In Seven Years, And 10 Billion Fund Managers Continued To Support "Top Current Fund Managers" And Their Heavy Positions Remained Unchanged

The growth rate of Guizhou Maotai's first quarter performance in 2021 is lower than expected, which sets off a lot of waves in the A-share market.

Guizhou Maotai (600519. SH) became the only liquor company that fell on April 28, closing at - 2.50% and closing at 2042 yuan / share, due to a seven-year low in the first quarter.

Maotai, Guizhou, has seen a correction of 22% from a record high of 2627 yuan on February 18.

At this time, fund managers still love Guizhou Maotai?

According to the first quarterly report of Guizhou Maotai, the e fund blue chip selection fund managed by Zhang Kun, the "first brother of public offering", holds 4.32 million shares of Guizhou Maotai, and is the ninth largest shareholder.

By checking the positions of funds, we can find that Guizhou Maotai is still the first heavy position stock of public funds in the first quarter of 2021.

At the end of the first quarter, 117 10 billion fund managers held Guizhou Maotai, including a long list of star fund managers with heavy positions in Guizhou Maotai: Zhang Kun's 12.5 billion yuan and Liu Yanchun's 9.5 billion yuan; Xiaonan 4.7 billion yuan; Cai Xiangyang 4.1 billion yuan; Wang Zonghe 3.7 billion yuan; Hu Xinwei 3.6 billion yuan

On April 29, the stock price of Guizhou Maotai was weak. After opening, it rebounded slightly and then went down immediately. The consolidation trend was obvious. As of press release, Maotai, Guizhou, fell 0.25%.

So, what's wrong with Maotai, Guizhou? How did Zhang Kun and other top current fund managers take heavy positions in Maotai, Guizhou? Is Maotai worth keeping?

Stock price volatility

On April 28, Maotai, Guizhou Province, opened with a 4% oversold and closed at 2042.00 yuan / share, down 2.50%.

On the same day, the liquor index rose 4.40%. Guizhou Maotai became the only liquor stocks that fell and fell sharply.

It was a quarterly report published that day that brought the collapse of Maotai, Guizhou.

According to the first quarter report of 2021, the first quarter business income of Guizhou Maotai is 27.271 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.74%; Net profit was 13.954 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.57%, which reached a new low in nearly seven years.

Historically, the growth rate of Guizhou Maotai's performance in the first quarter of 2003, 2010 and 2014 was also lower than 10%. Every time the growth rate was lower than 10%, its stock price fell sharply by 20% - 50%. Has a new round of big falls started?

If you look back at this year's trend in Maotai, Guizhou, it is also full of twists and turns.

Since the first trading day of 2021 in Guizhou Maotai exceeded 2000 yuan / share, to the first trading day after the Spring Festival, it reached a historical high of 2627 yuan / share, and then it fell back by more than 20%. Guizhou Maotai stock price closed at 2009 yuan / share at the end of the first quarter, and the current stock price is 2042 yuan / share.

If the time is longer, the trend of Maotai in Guizhou has not been smooth in recent years.

According to the statistics of Zheshang securities, from 2013 to 2016, the profit growth of Maotai in Guizhou decreased from more than 40% to single digit or even negative growth, until 2017, it began to return to the fast track again, maintaining the level of more than 20% per year.

Maotai also experienced the liquor plasticizer storm in 2013, and experienced a difficult process such as the break-up of leverage bull and the sharp drop of stock price in 2015.

For Guizhou Maotai investors who have been tested for a long time, the incident that the stock price collapsed in the first quarter report will not shake confidence.

"After the announcement of Maotai's first quarter results, the stock price fluctuated on the same day, but the short-term fluctuation did not affect the company's long-term growth space, so investors need not worry too much." On April 28, Cai Xiangyang, managing director of Huaxia Fund, said.

Cai Xiangyang is also one of the star fund managers who have a heavy position in Guizhou Maotai. At the end of the first quarter, Cai Xiangyang managed 7 funds, holding a total of 2019600 shares in Guizhou Maotai, with a market value of 4.057 billion yuan.

Under the condition that Guizhou Maotai's first quarter performance did not meet the expectation, in the last two days, 15 securities companies followed up the Research Report and gave positive ratings one after another. All of them were optimistic about the follow-up performance of the company's stock price, and maintained the ratings of "buy", "recommend" and "strongly recommend". Among them, China Merchants Securities and founder securities are "strongly recommended" ratings.

Founder Securities believes that Q1 revenue growth rate is slightly lower than market expectations, because Guizhou Maotai shipping rhythm adjustment affects revenue growth, and tax influence reduces profit growth. After Q2, the contribution of price increase of some products is expected to be low before and high after Q2. The contradiction between supply and demand has existed for a long time, and the performance of the whole year is not worried, and the fundamentals continue to rise.

Zhang Kun's 8-year heavy warehouse in Maotai

Zhang Kun, the "first brother of public offering", is regarded as a leader in liquor investment.

According to the first quarter report, among the top ten shareholders of Guizhou Maotai, e-fund blue chip selected hybrid securities investment fund under Zhang Kun holds 4.32 million shares, with a shareholding ratio of 0.34%, becoming the ninth largest shareholder of Guizhou Maotai.

This blue chip selection of e fund is the largest actively managed equity fund in the market at present. At the end of the first quarter of 2021, the total scale of this blue chip fund is 88.016 billion yuan, which is RMB 20.315 billion yuan higher than that at the end of 2020, or 30% higher than that at the end of 2020.

According to the statistics of the first quarter report of e fund blue chip selection fund, the number of shares held by Guizhou Maotai at the end of the first quarter increased by 1.05 million shares, or 32.29%, compared with the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. Guizhou Maotai is currently the third largest fund heavy position stock of the fund, accounting for 9.86% of the net value of the fund. It is almost Dingge's application for Guizhou Maotai.

The market is not surprised by the new quarterly report, which belongs to Zhang Kun's usual operation on Guizhou Maotai.

Zhang Kun has had a heavy position in Guizhou Maotai for 8 years. Since the second quarter of 2013, e-fund managed by Zhang Kun has a heavy position in Guizhou Maotai, which is the only fund that has held Guizhou Maotai in the top 10 heavy positions for 32 consecutive months.

E fund blue chip selection fund, which Zhang Kun took over on September 5, 2018, has been managed for more than two years. This fund also follows the style of Zhang Kun's heavy holdings of liquor stocks such as Guizhou Maotai and Wuliangye.

Overall, at the end of the first quarter, Zhang Kun's three funds held heavy positions in Maotai, Guizhou, with a net shareholding market value of more than 9%. Another fund managed by Zhang Kun is QDII, which is not in the investment scope.

Specifically, e fund blue chip holdings of Guizhou Maotai accounted for 9.86% of the total net asset value of the fund; E fund medium and small cap is 8.94%; E-fonda high-quality enterprises are 9.78% in three years.

At the end of the first quarter, Guizhou Maotai was the largest public offering fund.

The number of fund positions managed by Zhang Kun alone accounts for 7% of the total public offering positions in Guizhou Maotai.

Specifically, Zhang Kun held 6.235 million shares of Maotai in Guizhou at the end of the first quarter, with a market value of 12.526 billion yuan.

Undoubtedly, Zhang Kun is recognized as a "wind vane" for liquor investment in the whole industry, especially in Maotai, Guizhou.

In the first quarter of this year, Zhang Kun's operation on Guizhou Maotai is: heavy positions, even top grid holdings!

For example, the blue chip selection of e-fund managed by Zhang Kun has 9.64% of the net asset value of the fund by the end of 2020. By the end of the first quarter of 2021, the scale of e fund blue chip selection expanded from 67.7 billion yuan to 88 billion yuan, and the net share of Guizhou Maotai remained stable, reaching 9.87%. Accordingly, the number and market value of Guizhou Maotai held by the fund increased from 3.26 million shares and 6.5 billion yuan at the end of last year to 4.32 million shares and 8.7 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter of 2021, with an increase of more than 30%.

The other fund managed by Zhang Kun, e-fund, is another typical example of heavy investment in liquor stocks when the scale is shrinking.

The small and medium-sized e-fund suspended its subscription on February 24, when it also took out nearly 10% of its net worth for large dividends. As a result, its scale dropped from 40.1 billion yuan at the end of last year to 31.5 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter of this year. In this case, the number of positions and market value of Guizhou Maotai at the end of the first quarter of this fund also decreased accordingly. At the end of the first quarter of 2021, the market value of Guizhou Maotai held by the fund accounted for 8.94% of the net asset value of the fund, down 1% from 9.96% at the end of 2020, and it is still a heavy position.

However, the number of shares held by e-fonda high-quality enterprise managed by Zhang Kun has remained basically unchanged in Guizhou Maotai for three years, with a decrease of only 20000 shares from the end of last year to the end of the first quarter of 2021.

On the whole, in the first quarter, Zhang Kun adjusted the positions of Guizhou Maotai of the three funds with the change of fund scale, increasing and decreasing. On the whole, Guizhou Maotai shares held by Zhang Kun increased by 430000 shares at the end of the first quarter.

In fact, in the first quarter of Guizhou Maotai "roller coaster" market, Zhang Kun still maintained the style of heavy warehouse Guizhou Maotai, did not do band, nor significantly reduce holdings. Short term stock price fluctuation is not the reason for Zhang Kun to adjust his position.

A standard of Zhang kunxuan company is: "if you don't want to hold it for more than 10 years, don't hold it for one minute.".

In the latest fund quarterly report, Zhang Kun said: "in the long run, we believe that volatility of similar magnitude in the stock market will continue to appear in the future, and it is difficult to predict in advance. However, as long as the intrinsic value of the enterprise is improved, such fluctuation will eventually be fluctuation and will not cause permanent loss of principal. "

Some people have summed up Zhang Kun's style: high position, high concentration, long holding period and low turnover rate.

Guizhou Maotai, which has been heavily invested for eight years, is a typical case of Zhang Kun's investment style, and it seems that this investment style will continue.

Top star fund manager's blessing

According to the statistics of 21st century economic report, at the end of the first quarter, in addition to Zhang Kun's 12.526 billion yuan in Maotai, Guizhou, there were also a large number of top star fund managers: Liu Yanchun's six funds held 4.746 million shares, with a market value of 9.535 billion yuan; Xiao Nan's six funds held 2.3658 million shares, with a market value of 4.736 billion yuan; Cai Xiangyang's seven funds held 2.0196 million shares, with a market value of 4.057 billion yuan; Wang Zonghe's 10 funds held 1.8416 million shares, with a market value of 3.7 billion yuan; Hu Xinwei's five funds hold 1.808 million shares with a market value of 3.618 billion yuan

In fact, Guizhou Maotai is especially favored by top stream fund managers. According to CAITONG Securities Research Report, by the end of the first quarter of this year, the market value of Guizhou Maotai's fund positions totaled 101.986 billion yuan, and 117 fund managers (accounting for 71.78% of the market) of 10 billion fund held shares in Guizhou Maotai.

Some star fund managers are similar to Zhang Kun's operation on Maotai in Guizhou, such as Liu Yanchun.

He is the second 100 billion level fund manager after Zhang Kun. By the end of the first quarter of 2021, the fund management scale reached 101.580 billion yuan.

Liu Yanchun also invested heavily in liquor stocks for a long time. According to the reporter's calculation, the six funds managed by Liu Yanchun, namely, Jingshun Great Wall emerging growth, Jingshun Dingyi, Jingshun Great Wall excellent growth, Jingshun Great Wall domestic demand No.2, Jingshun Great Wall domestic demand growth and Jingshun Great Wall Jiying growth, will be opened in two years. At the end of the first quarter, a total of 4.746 million shares were held in Maotai, Guizhou, with a market value of 9.535 billion yuan.

Overall, at the end of the first quarter of 2021, the market value of Maotai in Guizhou held by Liu Yanchun (9.535 billion yuan) accounted for 9.39% of the scale of funds under management (101.580 billion yuan). That is to say, all six funds managed by Liu Yanchun are heavily invested in Maotai, Guizhou Province, and are close to Dingge.

At the end of the first quarter, Guizhou Maotai continued to hold the largest position in public offering funds. According to the quarterly report statistics released by wind as of April 28, the market value of Guizhou Maotai public offering fund positions reached 179.151 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter, an increase of 4.485 billion yuan compared with the market value at the end of the fourth quarter of last year.

In addition, at the end of the first quarter, a total of 1779 funds held heavy positions in Maotai, Guizhou, with a total of 89174300 shares, an increase of 1753600 shares compared with the previous quarter.

Among them, e-fund, huitianfu, Huaxia and Jingshun great wall are the four fund companies holding the most shares in Maotai, Guizhou, with 13.5 million shares, 8.18 million shares, 7.27 million shares and 6.29 million shares respectively.

?