Interpretation: In April 2021, CPI Is Generally Stable And PPI'S Growth Rate Is Down

The National Bureau of statistics released today the national CPI and PPI data for April 2021. In this regard, Dong Lijuan, Senior Statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, made an interpretation.

First, CPI month on month decline narrowed, year-on-year growth expanded

In April, domestic consumer demand continued to recover, and the overall price operation was stable. On a month on month basis, CPI fell by 0.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. Among them, the food price decreased by 2.4%, and the decline rate narrowed by 1.2 percentage points, which affected the CPI decline by about 0.45%. In food, with the continuous recovery of pig production and the decline of consumer demand, pork prices continued to decline by 11.0%; The market volume of fresh vegetables and fruits increased, and the prices decreased by 8.8% and 3.8% respectively; The price of freshwater fish rose by 9.8% due to factors such as reduced supply and rising feed costs. Non food prices rose by 0.2%, the same as the previous month, affecting the CPI rise of about 0.19%. In non food, the situation of epidemic prevention and control was better, and the impact of festival factors was superimposed. Residents' travel increased significantly. The prices of air tickets, travel agency charges, transport rental fees and hotel accommodation prices increased by 21.6%, 5.3%, 4.3% and 3.9% respectively; Affected by the rising prices of raw materials, the prices of industrial consumer goods, such as refrigerators, washing machines, television sets, laptops and bicycles, all rose by 0.6% - 1.0%.

From a year-on-year basis, CPI rose by 0.9%, 0.5 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. Among them, food prices fell by 0.7%, the same as the previous month, which affected the CPI decline by about 0.14%. In food, pork price decreased by 21.4%, 3.0 percentage points higher than that of the previous month; The price of chicken and duck decreased by 8.0% and 2.0%, respectively, with the decrease rate of 0.6%; The prices of freshwater fish, mutton and beef rose by 26.4%, 9.4% and 4.1% respectively, while the prices of eggs and edible vegetable oil increased by 8.6% and 8.4%, respectively, with the increase expanding. Non food prices rose by 1.3%, 0.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, which affected the rise of CPI by about 1.05%. Among non food items, the prices of air tickets, gasoline and diesel oil increased by 26.9%, 20.1% and 21.9% respectively, the prices of cultural and entertainment services and education services increased by 2.2% and 2.0%, the prices of entertainment durable consumer goods and large household appliances increased by 1.0% and 0.1% respectively.

It is estimated that among the 0.9% year-on-year increase in April, the tail effect of last year's price change was about 0.1 percentage point, compared with - 0.6 percentage point last month; The impact of the new price increase was about 0.8 percentage points, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.7% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points higher than last month.

　 2. CPI fell down on a month on month basis and expanded on a year-on-year basis

In April, domestic industrial production recovered steadily, the prices of iron ore, non-ferrous metals and other international bulk commodities went up, and the prices of production fields continued to rise. On a month on month basis, PPI rose 0.9%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 1.2%, and the increase fell by 0.8%; The price of means of living rose by 0.1% and fell by 0.1%. The decline of PPI month on month increase was mainly affected by the fall of oil and non-ferrous metal industry price rise. The fluctuation of international crude oil price has driven the price rise of domestic oil related industries to fall or turn down. Among them, the price of oil and natural gas exploitation industry increased by 0.4%, and the increase fell by 9.4%; The price of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry rose by 2.1%, and the increase fell by 3.2 percentage points; The price of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries fell 0.9% from a 5.7% increase in the previous month. Although the prices of copper, aluminum and other non-ferrous metals continue to rise in the international market, the rise has slowed down. The prices of domestic nonferrous metal smelting and calendering and processing industry rose by 2.1%, and the increase fell by 2.4%. In addition, affected by increased demand and rising costs of raw materials such as iron ore, the price of ferrous metal smelting and calendering and processing industry rose by 5.6% and 0.9% respectively.

On a year-on-year basis, PPI rose by 6.8%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production increased by 9.1% and 3.3% respectively; The price of means of living rose by 0.3% and expanded by 0.2%. Affected by the low base of comparison in the same period of last year, the price increases of major industries have expanded. Among them, the oil and gas exploitation industry increased by 85.8%, an increase of 62.1 percentage points; Ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry rose by 30.0%, expanding by 8.5 percentage points; Nonferrous metal smelting and calendering industry rose by 26.9%, expanding by 5.6 percentage points; The oil, coal and other fuel processing industries rose by 23.8%, an increase of 9.9 percentage points; The manufacturing industry of chemical raw materials and chemical products rose by 17.5%, an increase of 6.1 percentage points; The coal mining and washing industry rose by 13.3% and expanded by 6.4%.

It is estimated that among the 6.8% year-on-year increase in April, the tail effect of last year's price change was about 2.5 percentage points, 1.5 percentage points larger than that of the previous month; The impact of the new price increase was about 4.3 percentage points, with an increase of 0.9 percentage points.