Chengdu Off The Shelf High Price Second-Hand Housing: Restraining Demand And Reducing Leverage

? ? ? ? The regulation and control of the real estate market tends to be more optimized and phased adjustment. On May 14, the official wechat of Chengdu real estate brokerage Association announced the notice on further standardizing the listing price of second-hand housing in our city (hereinafter referred to as the notice)《 The notice clearly mentions that it is necessary to remove the real estate resources with high house prices in Chengdu, and the limit of "virtual high" is more than 39300 yuan / m2《 The notice also stipulates that even if there is a standard higher than this price in real market transactions in the future, it can not be displayed and publicized with this standard.

? ? ? ? The move of Chengdu's second-hand housing is the same as Shanghai's, which is similar to Shenzhen's previous guidance price of second-hand housing. Therefore, industry insiders speculate that Chengdu's second-hand housing guidance price is on the way. After the previous "322" new deal, Chengdu market transactions did slow down, but the market is still overheated, the rise of second-hand housing is too high, it is reasonable for the government to tighten the regulation of second-hand housing.

However, in this way, some owners who are hard to accept the price reduction will probably put forward the requirement of "yin yang contract". Then, the part of house price higher than 39300 yuan / m2 is likely to become the down payment of the buyer.

? ? ? Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, believes that the management and control of Chengdu's second-hand housing is upgraded, and it can be predicted that the long-term management of the follow-up second-hand housing will be accelerated. At a deeper level, there are some regulatory measures in Chengdu, such as the increase of the first house loan interest rate, the introduction of the second-hand housing guidance price, and the scale-up of centralized land supply. In order to cool down the property market, Chengdu has recently implemented intensive regulation and mainly aimed at reducing leverage at the purchasing end.

Demand side deleveraging

Zhang Fei (pseudonym) on the real feeling of Chengdu off the shelf high price housing influence. A second-hand house he was trading recently hit the muzzle of regulation. As the unit price of the house is higher than 39300 yuan / m2, the owner has clearly proposed to sign a yin-yang contract. Zhang Fei is very clear, in addition to the contract signed according to the unit price of 39300 yuan / square meter to loan, the extra part of the house money needs to be raised to solve the problem.

The situation faced by Zhang Fei can be said to be one of the normalities of Chengdu's regulation into the deep water area. In the past year, Chengdu's second-hand housing rose significantly. The most typical increase occurred in April 2020. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in April 2020, Chengdu's new housing rose by 0.7% month on month, and 10.3% higher than that in 2019; Second hand housing rose 2.1% month on month and 4.1% higher than that in 2019. The rise of second-hand housing reached a new high in five years, much higher than the highest monthly increase of 1.7% in Chengdu before the purchase restriction in September 2016. Moreover, the second-hand house price in Chengdu in 2020 was higher than that in 2016.

In April this year, Chengdu's new housing rose 0.5% month on month and 6.6% year on year; Second hand house prices rose 0.3% month on month, up 7.4% year on year. The pressure of controlling house price in Chengdu is increasing.

Chengdu second-hand housing rose a lot, one reason is from the performance of first-hand housing. Chengdu's property market changes in recent years can be seen through the high-tech zone. Zheng Min (not his real name) bought his first house in 2020, which is located in Chengdu high tech Zone, which is also the fastest rising area in Chengdu in recent two years. On the one hand, Zheng Min works in the Bank of high tech Zone; On the other hand, after the comparison between the two, they think that buying a house in the hi tech Zone will make the living more comfortable in the future. With the high-tech zone entering the peak period of construction, the second-hand housing has been bullish. Recently, there are many second-hand houses with over 39300 yuan / m2 off the shelves in Chengdu. According to anjuke.com, the average price of second-hand houses in Chengdu high tech Zone has risen from 22500 yuan / m2 in June 2020 to 32200 yuan / m2 in May this year, with an increase of about 43% in the past year.

Why does a large number of property market demand fall into the high tech Zone? The reason is obvious: in response to the investment of Internet giants such as Alibaba, Tencent, Netease, etc., a large number of employment opportunities in the high-tech zone have also emerged; Before that, many young people who had just entered Chengdu were restricted to buy houses in the high tech south zone. New houses were in short supply and the second-hand housing market rose accordingly.

At the end of 2019, Chengdu adjusted the purchase restriction policy, so that people who have the purchase qualification of high tech south zone can also purchase in Tianfu new area, high tech West Zone, Jinjiang District, Qingyang District, Jinniu District, Wuhou District and Chenghua District, moderately dispersing the supply pressure of high tech South Zone. But this has also led to the rise of second-hand housing prices in other regions, leading to the rise in land auction prices. In 2021, the land floor price of several suburban blocks in Chengdu will exceed 20000 yuan / m2. In the past year, the average transaction price of commercial residential buildings in Qingbaijiang District, the outer suburb of Chengdu, is 7871 yuan / m2, which is also at the middle level in the outer suburbs. According to the data of Chengdu Ruili institution, the current stock of this area is less than 1 million square meters. According to the speed of de chemical in 2020, it only takes 4 months to remove.

Higher mortgage rates

After exhausting the measures of restricting purchase and price, the intention of Chengdu real estate market regulation to reduce the leverage on the demand side is more and more obvious. Although the national housing loan interest rate has declined, the Chengdu housing loan interest rate is quietly rising. In terms of housing loan tightening, Chengdu is one of the most stringent cities at present. It is also the city with the highest interest rate for the first house, with an average interest rate of 5.93%.

Zheng Min, a salesman of a bank in Chengdu, was lucky. The loan interest rate she applied for was 5.88%. According to the data of rong360 big data research institute, by the end of 2020, Chengdu's new housing loan interest rate will reach 6.13%.

In fact, in order to curb the property market, the loan interest rate of the first house in Chengdu is usually 5.88% - 6.1%. It is understood that at present, the interest rate of the first house loan in Chengdu has risen by 20% - 25%, and the highest executive interest rate is 6.13%; Second set of housing generally rose by 25% - 30%, and the highest executive interest rate was 6.37%, which was basically the same as last month.

Zheng Min believes that in recent years, the interest rate of house purchase in Chengdu has been rising, and the cost of house purchase is increasing, but it has also inhibited the growth of house price to a certain extent. Therefore, the rise of mortgage interest rate actually suppresses the speculators and protects the rights and interests of just in need in disguise. In Zheng Min's cognition, no matter how high the interest rate of house purchase is in the past ten years, with the sharp rise of house prices, the substantial appreciation of the house can completely cover this floating interest rate. Therefore, as a gang member, she said that she would not refuse to buy a house because of the rise of mortgage interest rate. "No matter whether the house price will rise or fall in the future, and no matter how much the interest rate will rise, she will still buy the house she should buy."

Regulation optimization

Since 2021, Chengdu's regulation of real estate has been increasing. For example, the "legal auction house" will be included in the scope of policy supervision of purchase restriction and sales restriction, and the sales period of popular real estate will be increased from three years to five years. In addition to these, there are a series of regulatory policies, the purpose of which is to ensure the healthy and stable development of the real estate market in Chengdu.

Shenzhen, which was the first to put forward the reference price system for second-hand housing transactions, has achieved a preliminary effect: the transaction of second-hand housing has dropped sharply and the market has undergone great changes. Chengdu is not afraid to learn from Shenzhen. In order to keep the overall market stable, the Chengdu government has taken the initiative to optimize and adjust the regulation: for example, it strictly checked the operating loans, removed the high priced second-hand houses, and asked for the sale of hardbound houses last year. However, due to the market's concern about the quality of housing, it gradually returned to the state of Qingshui house.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that the prices of second-hand houses have risen significantly. Most of the cities are concentrated in areas with strong real estate speculation atmosphere and investors gather. This round of second-hand housing price control is a new thing in this round of real estate regulation. It is expected that the second-hand housing price control in the first and second tier cities in China will become a trend, and more cities may increase the price of second-hand houses for listing control. Shenzhen has seen a second-hand housing prices down, it is expected that under the policy continued to patch, the rise in house prices will significantly slow down.

Since the "three red lines" policy was put forward in August 2020, the real estate regulatory policy has been continuously increased. In March 2021, the land "two concentration" policy was issued, and the real estate industry has formed a closed-loop regulation from real estate enterprises, banks to local governments, and the era of financing dividends and land dividends has ended.

From the recent situation of centralized land supply, the profit margin of real estate enterprises in urban core areas is declining. After the completion of the first centralized land supply in Hangzhou, the management of Binjiang group said in answering questions from investors that the profit margin of the plot taken was 1% - 2%. Chengdu is the same. Xuhui, who has been fighting in the main urban area of Chengdu, also said that the plot in the core area of the main city is really difficult to make profits.

What is close to Hangzhou is that there are many "double restricted land" in Chengdu for the first time, which has aroused doubts about the quality of housing in the future. A person from a real estate enterprise in Chengdu pointed out that Hangzhou has an atmosphere of "private enterprise world", while Chengdu is not. State owned enterprises such as urban investment company can often win TOD projects, while Vanke and Longhu rarely have the opportunity to win large-scale complex projects. Industry insiders speculate that after the completion of Chengdu's first centralized land supply in June, the market may be another scene, and there may be a new path for property market regulation.

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