Anxiety Of "Fear Of Heights" And "Overstepping": 10 Fund Managers Disclose The Secret Of Position Adjustment

When the market was caught off guard, a shares started a wave of February since the most powerful rebound.

Since this week (may 24-27), the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index have risen continuously, with cumulative increases of more than 3%.

The market has been in a continuous upward attack, especially the "bull flag bearer" and "market vane" of the stock market performance is very outstanding, which means that the market confidence is warming.

In particular, this wave of sudden large-scale upward attack and breakthrough, ignited everyone's hope for the bull market.

In just four trading days this week, Beishang capital bought 47.3 billion yuan of a shares, and has been net buying for six consecutive weeks.

At this time, investors began to tangle, on the one hand, "fear of heights" worried about short-term correction, on the other hand, worried about "stepping down".

The 10 public and private fund managers interviewed by the 21st century economic report are different situations: they increase or adjust positions almost at the same time, but the operation direction is different.

In this wave of market, how do fund managers operate and what do they worry about in the future?

The logic of the boom

Recently, this wave of momentum A-share rise, led to the general rise of funds, so that the early performance of fund managers suffered a sharp correction of a sigh of relief.

For the recent A-share boom, private placement network fund manager Hu Po believes that "the market shock has been sorted out for more than three months, so the recent rise is more the rebound demand brought by the accumulation of market enthusiasm after full market adjustment. At the same time, the superposition of RMB appreciation also promotes the continuous inflow of overseas funds into China's capital market, which leads to the market explosion."

Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, pointed out that the first reason for the recent market rally is that investor sentiment is continuously improving. As the market adjustment after the Spring Festival released the risk of overvaluation of varieties, the resilience of China's economy, the weakening of worries about domestic liquidity tightening, and the global economic recovery situation, the tight investor sentiment after the Spring Festival continued to improve, driving the continuous upward performance of A-share market.

And the continuous rise of the RMB exchange rate to boost the A-share market is the background that fund managers pay special attention to.

Since April, there has been a wave of upward movements in the RMB exchange rate. On May 26, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.4099, and on May 27, the exchange rate broke through and rose to 6.3798 yuan, a new high in nearly three years.

Zhao Lisong, chairman of shangdegu investment, analyzes that there is a general expectation in the market that RMB will appreciate in a certain amount or even in a trend.

Zhao Lisong pointed out that in this context, there will be two phenomena: first, international arbitrage funds will gradually flow into China; second, there will be pressure to curb the continuous spread of inflation through RMB appreciation. Under these two phenomena, the market believes that there will be a certain rise in the capital market, which is based on the pressure of interest rate increase and the pressure of continuous monetary tightening.

Tong Diyi, general manager of longying fuze assets, said, "the index has broken through the recent platform position. I think this is due to the expected liberalization of RMB exchange rate, which has highlighted the position of RMB assets as a value depression in the global financial market. Foreign investors have increased their efforts to scramble for funds, and the liquidity and valuation premium of a shares have increased again."

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said that this week, a large number of funds have flowed into A-share low-quality stocks.

"When the market rose sharply on Tuesday, the net inflow of funds from Beishang exceeded 21 billion on that day, creating the largest one-day flow in history. At present, Beishang capital has been net buying for six consecutive weeks, which shows that high-quality stocks of a shares have attracted the attention of foreign investors. On the one hand, the inflow of foreign capital is attracted by the recent adjustment of good stocks, on the other hand, the appreciation of RMB Yang Delong said.

scale in

In this round of rising market, most of the fund managers interviewed by the 21st century economic report said that their positions had been increased or adjusted, and some of them were full positions.

"This wave of rise is forced short style rise, so at this time, generally speaking, fund managers are adding positions." Yang Delong said.

Li Kejie, general manager of Quanhong private equity fund, said that most of the previous may was "five poor", but unexpectedly, the market suddenly went up, and it was a large-scale breakthrough.

"I think that a big positive line of a shares on Tuesday is an important signal of the rally: on the one hand, the trading volume is more than trillion yuan; It also broke through 3500 points; In particular, the net inflow of more than 20 billion yuan of capital from the north is not a small fuss. "

"Now the position is too light, it's not suitable. We need to increase the position. This wave of market should have made a difference. " Li Kejie said.

"Of course, if the position is full, it is OK for the stock to rise; It is also OK to reduce the position a little when it is too strong and too urgent. " Li Kejie said.

Lin Jiayi, CEO of Xuanjia finance, said: "we focus on bottom-up fundamental research, not much on macro changes, but more on price performance. Over the past week, we have continued to increase our position from 50% to more than 80%. Actively participate in this bear market rebound. "

"At present, we are still clearly optimistic about high cost performance targets in the market, such as Sansheng pharmaceutical, which has been wrongly killed by Hong Kong stock, airport aviation with high prosperity in the next two years, such as Baiyun Airport, and the digital upgrading of traditional leading enterprises, such as Gree Electric appliances and Dahua shares." Lin Jiayi said.

Tong Diyi, general manager of longying fuze assets, said, "in the case of a good market, I appropriately increased my position and held Baima shares with reasonable valuation as the main direction. At the same time, we should dig deep into the logic of global inflation and find beneficial sectors and industries as the main line of medium-term investment. "

Zhao Lisong, chairman of shangdegu investment, said, "we think the trend of RMB appreciation will be further strengthened, so we have gradually increased our position, and now the position is between 60% and 70%

For future investment, Zhao Lisong said, "first, we basically avoid commodities; Second, some high-tech stocks in the early stage, fully adjusted high-tech stocks, and stocks with investment opportunities brought by RMB appreciation, such as aviation, paper-making and oil, will be sought after by the market. Therefore, we suggest that investors and our customers should pay more attention to the stocks in these directions. "

Zhang Kexing, general manager of Beijing gray assets, said, "my current position is not low, more than 70%

"To tell you the truth, for many old funds, because their net worth is at a high level and they have a relatively high safety cushion, we did not reduce our positions in the process of this adjustment. We only optimized and adjusted some stocks with low performance certainty and poor performance after the market fell, That is to put the stock position on the stocks with more certainty and performance support, which is one of our operations in this adjustment. " Zhang Kexing said.

"Of course, for some newly issued Funds - we have issued nearly 10 funds this year, we still put the risk first. We will not maintain a very high position at the first time, or slowly build a position." Zhang Kexing said.

Zhang Kexing said, "I think the future market is still a trend of differentiation, and it will continue the market of high-quality enterprises or core assets in the past. In the future, both Hong Kong stocks and A-shares will have opportunities. We are particularly optimistic about the opportunities of Hong Kong stocks, especially the new economy, in which industries and companies are mainly Internet leaders. At the same time, we also have a part of A-share consumer stocks, mainly some reasonable valuation, future performance support stocks

Zhang Kexing suggested that investors, after market adjustment, should not be short positions for some high-quality stocks with future performance, but the expectation should not be too high. We should select high-quality stocks under reasonable expectations, and believe that we will get very good yield in the next three or five years.

According to the reporter's understanding, some investment institutions are even full warehouse operation.

Find out the direction

"Our company is full at present." Hong Feng asset investment director Huang Yi said.

Huang Yi said, "the next step to observe the sustainability of the market is to verify the next step of market marginal change. We are optimistic about the trend of a shares. We expect that the market is expected to end the bottom horizontal volatility pattern which lasted for two or three months, and start a new wave of rising cycle, and the market style will grow back. "

Huang Yi believes that securities companies and the science and technology sector with semiconductor as the core will be the main investment line of the next round of market. The science and technology sector specifically includes the new energy vehicle industry chain (battery materials, batteries, auto parts, automotive electronics), medical devices and vaccines in the pharmaceutical sector, semiconductors (equipment, materials, chips), consumer electronics, panels, and so on Silicon materials and silicon wafers in the photovoltaic industry chain.

Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, said, "we have been adhering to the full position strategy in recent years. We analyze that the opportunities in the year are still greater than the risks, and there is no position adjustment plan at present."

Yuan Huaming believes that if the RMB appreciation trend is established, the RMB appreciation benefit plate varieties are expected to have outstanding performance in the near future.

So, A-share soaring in the fund managers, what will be done next?

Hu Po, fund manager of private placement network, said, "at present, there has been a certain rotation in the plate. Technology, medicine, and consumption all have a rotation performance, and the hot spots can continue. We are still optimistic about the rising space of the A-share market in the future."

However, some investors look further and think they should be cautious.

Lin Jiayi, CEO of Xuanjia finance, said: "recently, the market has experienced a rebound window under the background of liquidity easing. At this time, the economic recovery is not as expected, interest rates remain low, and the short-term window is OK. Beautiful assets fell to this position, leading to the overall market rebound. "

But Lin Jiayi pointed out that next, the market may reverse, "interest rates rise, further contraction of credit, will kill valuation again.".

Huang Huayan, manager of Avenue industrial investment fund, also pointed out that "the market either challenges a new high in this position, or falls, and the turning point comes. At this time, our position remains 70%, and we will choose an opportunity to reduce it in the future. "

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